KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Computer models have been at odds for our rain chances Friday.  As of the 6:00pm newscast we are still going with a 40% chance.  Hopefully the later model runs will be better tonight…update at 10:00pm.  If we do see storms, we are hatched in for a slight severe weather threat, but it looks like the worst of the weather will stay well to our north.  Stay up-to-date with us for the latest, or you can check out the latest severe weather situation at the Storm Prediction Center.

 

We desperately need the rain as our drought status has worsened from a “severe” to an “extreme” drought.  Hopefully we’ll have better opportunities for rain chances in the future.  After tomorrow, we should have a shot at some rain by mid-next week.  Unfortunately, anything we see tomorrow should be in the ¼” range or less…enough to settle the dust, but remember we are roughly 2-3 feet behind in our rains going back to last spring.

 

The outlooks for the rest of the spring look discouraging per the Climate Prediction Center, but the latter part of the summer looks a little better…more on that in a future posting.

 

 Rob Perillo

Another warm one is expected for tomorrow but we have been noticing the subtle changes in our atmosphere.  As we head into Friday, a frontal boundary in concert with a series of upper disturbances should generate scattered shower and thunderstorm activity.  As of our 6oopm newscast, I’m going with chances of getting wet on Friday at 40%.   The showers will be scattered, and rain totals should be less than ¼” of an inch, but at least we might get to see some of the dust settled.  What storms we do see, the Storm Prediction Center is indicating the slight risk of severe weather.

 

This weekend should be pleasant with comfortable humidity.  I expect highs closer to the mid-80s with lows dropping into the lower 60s!  Maybe the a/c will get a break!  Conditions gradually warm early next week, but I think we’ll see a chance of scattered showers again on Wednesday and then perhaps again next Friday/Saturday.

 

We can only hope that this will start to help with the drought.  Not likely though, but at least our 90 degree temperatures will go away for more than a week.

 

 Rob Perillo

8:00 am 

Record heat is expected once again today but there is relief in sight. A cold front is beginning to stall in north Louisiana. Storms will spark up this afternoon around Shreveport but we will stay dry today. A warm onshore flow continues ahead of the front allowing temperatures to reach into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Tomorrow clouds will become more widespread and temperatures will not warm up as much. By Friday the front will make a move and a cluster of thunderstorms is possible by the afternoon. The front will clear us by Saturday morning and high pressure will bring sunny skies for the weekend. The Bear Festival in Franklin will be this weekend if you are looking for a way to enjoy the beautiful weather.
Kari Hall

More big heat is on the way for tomorrow, but as advertised in our weathercasts, we do expect some subtle changes later this week.  Hopefully the ridge of high pressure breaks down enough for Friday to open the door for a weakening front accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms.  The question over the next several days is whether storms that get more active in Texas will put a dent in the ridge of high pressure?  Hopefully so, but we are not going gang-busters on our rain chances yet.  There may be another chance of rain early next week with a more significant frontal boundary that will try to push through.

 

In the entomology department, we have had a number of reports of swarming termites from Franklin to Jennings.  From what I understand, the hot temperatures and just the right humidity have triggered the swarms.  The best way of keeping them out of our houses is to lower the lights inside at night, and make it cooler by lowering the thermostat.  To identify the species check out this PDF from the LSU Ag Center.  In addition, you can get a good overview from the Ag Center here.

 

Rob Perillo

Per the National Weather Service in Lake Charles…

430 PM CDT MON APR 17 2006
 

…NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW…
 

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA HAS BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN AVERAGING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID APRIL…AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE SET AT BOTH ALEXANDRIA AND LAFAYETTE ON MONDAY.  

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TOMORROW…ADDITIONAL RECORD HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BROKEN.
 

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY APRIL 17 2006 ARE AS FOLLOWS:
 

BEAUMONT       90 SET IN 1987
LAKE CHARLES   89 SET IN 1948
LAFAYETTE      89 SET IN 1987
NEW IBERIA     92 SET IN 1948
ALEXANDRIA     89 SET IN 1987
 

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK…WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
 

Today the high in Lafayette was 93, which not only broke the record of 91 in 1925, but ties the all time high temperature recorded in April.  We’ve been that hot on a few earlier occasions, but we are talking records that go back to 1893.  As we mentioned on our earlier newscasts, it is always a hot summer in Southern Louisiana, but when you are pushing the mid-90s in April, your talking a very, very long summer.  Hopefully the pattern changes a little for next week.  The high pressure ridge in the region is forecast by the long range models to weaken significantly next week, but “hot and dry” usually brings more “hot and dry”.  So for right now we don’t put much stock into the long range models and we won’t put a dent in the drought, until we have at least two-three weeks of regular scattered showers and thunderstorms.  In addition, we also look toward the Gulf and Caribbean as we head into the summer for tropical moisture surges, but if you look at the latest satellite picture from that region, there is little promise there too.