KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

We are still heading for lower humidity this weekend, so at least something to look forward to.  What we all are not looking forward to is the upcoming hurricane season…it officially starts tomorrow. 

Dr Gray (and his heir apparent, Phillip Klotzbauch) came out with the updated hurricane forecast.  The numbers havent changed with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 major storms…about 150% of normal activity. 

The question remains as how strong and what the orientation of the “Bermuda” high will be in the next few months?  The high pressure ridge will be strong enough to minimize re-curvature in the Atlantic, thus there will be an elevated threat to the U.S.  The East Coast is certainly favored for major hurricane threats this year, but the Gulf will continue to be vulnerable as well.  With 5 major storms forecast this year, it is not unreasonable to think there will be one or two big ones in the Gulf of Mexico.  It would be really nice if we could skip the months of August and September on the meteorological calendar. 

Tonight at 10pm we’ll show you why things shouldn’t get too crazy until August.  Hope you tune in then.  Rob Perillo

The chance of getting wet should go down over the next couple of days as drier air is expected to push in from the east.  This drier air is in the wake of a mid-upper low pressure system in the Western Gulf.  This feature will slowly drift into South Texas by the latter part of the week producing much needed rains in parched areas of Texas.  Following this system, higher pressures will build across the region in tandem with a slightly more stable atmosphere.  There will still be scattered storms across the area, but not nearly as much activity as we have seen over the last couple of days.   Best chance of getting wet will be across the western part of the state into Texas where flood watches are still posted.  By the latter part of the week a frontal trough is still anticipated bringing less humid air, but not any cooler temperatures for the latter part of the weekend into much of next week…summer is here. 

Rob Perillo

A juicy tropical air mass has enthralled the region with scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Organized storm clusters, know as meso-convective complexes have been responsible for up to a foot of rain in and near the Golden Triangle area in Southeast Texas last night and during the day today.  It will continue to be quite difficult in pin-pointing where the heaviest of storms will be tomorrow, as most of this activity is being governed by outflow boundaries aloft.  Light upper winds are keeping the storms nearly stationary at times, thus the threat of gully-washers again tomorrow. 

A weak tropical wave is pushing westward across the Gulf which should begin to push the storms back toward Texas tomorrow with more stable air likely in the wake of the wave.  So our rain chances should go down Wednesday and Thursday but there will still be some scattered activity.  A weak frontal trough will approach from the north by Friday triggering another round of storms, some of which could be strong.  Thereafter I expect drier conditions and lower humidity for the upcoming weekend…but temperatures will still stay hot. 

Rob Perillo

Today we have been talking about the hurricane forecast process and the accuracy of the National Hurricane Center forecasts.  The bottom line-always count on a storm to be possibly one category higher than forecast, 24 hours out, and up to 2 categories, 48 hours out.  That means if a 48 hour forecast is indicating a category two at landfall, it could easily be a 4, or a 1; what would you want to prepare for?  Check out the rest of the NHC preparedness site for a wealth of information.  Now is the time to formulate the plans for your family, household, extended family and pets.  When the storm is approaching, it’s too late to wing it.

Tune in tonight at 10pm and you’ll get more on hurricane forecast accuracy. 

The forecast in the near-term remains unchanged…better rain chances by the latter part of the Memorial Day weekend into early next week.

Rob Perillo

Hurricane preparedness week continues; yesterday we talked about the power of wind, and today we have been focusing on the rain factor.  I really think that flooding is probably Acadiana’s number one tropical nemesis.  It doesn’t take much more than a weak tropical disturbance (like Allison in 2001) to produce a 10-20” rainfall.  We face this threat every year, several times, starting from May and continuing through October.  Be prepared for flooding; know your elevation with respect to areas that surround your home, and I always recommend flood insurance for everyone in this area.  

A neat utility for determining your elevation relative to your neighbors and other neighborhoods is Google Earth.   It’s a big download and you have to have a relatively new computer and a broadband connection to run the program.  Once you get it up and running you can zoom down to the city street.  Put your curser over an area and it will show you latitude and longitude and elevation.  The elevations are not quite on, but you can see how the elevations change from one area to another. 

Weather-wise no major changes to the forecast with a better shot at afternoon storms by Sunday or Monday.  Until then your chance of getting wet will be in the 10% range. 

Rob Perillo

This week is “Hurricane Preparedness Week” so we have kicked of a series of discussions on subject matter relative to Acadiana and our coast.  I am trying to follow the guide per the National Hurricane Center, so today I talked about Rita’s surge and why we are so vulnerable to hurricane storm surges.  It becomes fairly straight forward when you know your elevation and distance from the Gulf.  A crude rule of thumb about surge along our coast is that the surge can penetrate up to one mile for every foot in surge height.  With Rita, we had a 10-15 foot surge that did penetrate 10-15 miles inland.  Of course, it is really not that simple, storm strength, forward speed, angle of the storm striking the coast and rainfall are all factors.  Rita and Katrina gave us a real idea of the tenacity of storm surges.  These storms have forced us to evaluate our position with respect to the Gulf of Mexico. That’s why I generated elevation maps for the coastal parishes.  These maps are 3-foot resolution maps and are for rough guidance.  To truly know you elevation, you need to check the FEMA maps, your local zoning office, and have a survey done on your property by a professional. 

Hopefully we will provide useful information for you this week, and that you’ll be following along with us.  We won’t concentrate on worst case meteorological scenarios, because the worst case situation is when you are not ready.  Have your plan of action for this season now, as we live on the front porch of hurricane central. 

On a lighter local note, slight rain chances may improve later this week as the ridge of high pressure that has been dominating our area over the last few weeks should shift eastward by the weekend.  This will open the door for deeper tropical moisture to move into the region…unfortunately just in time for the big three day weekend. 

Rob Perillo

There is little change in our forecast thinking with a mostly sunny and hot weekend on tap.  We may see a few more clouds on Sunday into Monday but moisture will be too limited to generate any kind of significant shower activity.  The pattern changes little for much of next week, but we might see a slightly better chance of a late afternoon storm on Thursday and/or Friday. 

In the looking for moisture department…computer models are indicating that an upper level low will form in the Western Gulf of Mexico this weekend, and that system may sling enough tropical moisture from the Pacific into the Gulf…whether any of that moisture gets here will be dubious, but this may also be a weak signal that tropical activity is just around the corner…actually 12 days away, and not counting!   

Rob Perillo

The weather pattern continues to stay sedate over our region thanks to what is called an “omega block”.  In the upper levels of the atmosphere the lower 48 has been dominated by an upper low over the Northeast (for more than a week now) and another low over the Pacific Northwest.  In between a ridge of high pressure is keeping our skies cloudless and our humidity down.  This pattern will drift eastward over the next few days which will engender hotter temperatures and higher humidity deeper into the weekend and for most of next.  Highs will range in the upper 80s to lower 90s while night time lows moderate from the 60s into the lower 70s for mid-late next week.  

Hopefully a change in the pattern occurs late next week allowing for at least some afternoon shower activity.  Until then our drought will slowly worsen. 

Rob Perillo

Not much change to yesterday’s forecast reasoning, but we might see a little more in the way of moisture pooling for Sunday and Monday.  We’ll see a less than 20% chance of a shower Sunday with the daytime heating, but we are hoping a decaying frontal trough will have a better opportunity to squeeze the moisture on Monday.  I am going with no more than 20% on Monday at this time, but the numbers could go up with time.  We may see better opportunities for rain late next week, but until then it is likely that our severe drought will worsen in the days ahead.

Our very, very nice weather pattern will continue for the rest of the week into the weekend.  Temperatures will run 5-10 degrees below normal through Wednesday with warmer temperatures back to near or above normal by the weekend.  Rain chances will continue be near zero through at least mid-next week.  There are some hints that some tropical moisture could push into the region by the end of next week. 

That leads us to the fact that today is the first day of hurricane season in the Eastern Tropical Pacific.  While at press time there is an area of disturbed weather south of Acapulco, of greater interest to us is a non-tropical disturbance in the west-central Gulf of Mexico.  If it was about three weeks from now and winds aloft were lighter, we’d be looking for tropical development.  This system could become a tropical hybrid as it surges toward Florida over the next few days.  Hopefully areas of the Sunshine State that have been parched will get some much needed rainfall…hopefully not too much! 

Rob Perillo