KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Three cheers for tropical moisture!  Deeper tropical moisture that has been pooling in the Gulf will advect into Southeast Texas and eventually into Louisiana by late this weekend.  So if you can put off watering the lawns and gardens for a couple of more days Mother Nature should deliver some much needed rain, especially as we go into next week.  There has been an area of disturbed weather in the form of a weak surface trough and upper low in the Bay of Campeche, but conditions are not favorable for development as this system and its associated moisture drift northwestward.   Elsewhere in the tropics, an area of disturbed weather in the Northeastern Caribbean/Sub-Tropical Atlantic should not develop. 

Daytime showers and storms will stay in the forecast through the end of next week with another weak frontal boundary supplying some relief for next weekend.  Have a safe weekend. 

Rob Perillo 

Another hot day in the books with no rain…not even a blip on the radar!  When little change is expected weather folk like to say “persistence remains the forecast.” 

Hopefully the ridge of high pressure will break down enough late this weekend and early next week to open the door for some tropical moisture to get into the region.  There are two tropical waves in the Caribbean; one in the Eastern Caribbean that remains large but disorganized.  The other wave/disturbance is in the Bay of Campeche.  You say the Bay of Campeche this time of year and ears perk up!  Right now winds aloft would be prohibitive of significant tropical development, but we could see a surge of some of that moisture arriving on our shores by the weekend.  Arguments against deep tropical moisture would be vigorous upper westerlies and low level trajectories in the opposite direction.  So once again Texas will see the best chance of getting wet with this system as we head into the weekend…hopefully at least the southwestern parts of Acadiana may see better prospects of afternoon storms. 

Next week holds limited promise of widely scattered afternoon storms, but it won’t even put a ding in the drought.  We do need some kind of weak tropical disturbance to help get us out of this situation, but we want to be careful about what we ask for!  

Rob Perillo  

Although I have been away for about a week, the pattern really hasn’t changed much.  Once again we’ll try to forecast a breakdown of the strong upper ridge by early next week, thereby increasing our prospects of scattered afternoon storms.  The drought continues…

While I was away, I spent time near Boston working with TrueView and Titan 3D software engineers on future iterations of weather graphics.  I have seen the future, and it looks really cool.  While we have no control over our drought, and other weather features, at least our graphics describing them will be more clear and higher tech!  Stay tuned for more to come…

Rob

We didn’t need the calender nor an atsronomical event to tell us that it is summer.  We’ve been mired in meteorological summer for the last 8 weeks.  Nonetheless, the “Summer Solstice” is upon us with the longest days of the year on tap for the next several days. 

Expect typical summer weather through the rest of the week and into the weekend with rain chances bouncing between 20-40% on any given day. 

I know the summer doldrums are here, but I like to look at this time of year as the countdown to fall…just 90 days to go, and roughly 110 days until the end of the “Northern Gulf” hurricane season.   

Rob Perillo

As alluded to in yesterday’s blog, the weather system that looks reminiscent of TS Allison has certainly produced Allison-like flooding across parts of the Houston area, through SE Texas and into SW Louisiana near Lake Charles.  The images on tonight’s news really highlighted how quickly it can flood when you get 7-8” of rain within a three hour time-frame.  We have been fortunate not to get the flooding rains, but we certainly could have used more precipitation across most of Acadiana. 

There is still a chance of healthy storms as of press time, moving in from the east.  These storms should weaken with the loss of daytime heating this evening.  The upper low over SE Texas will drift to the southwest and should weaken over the next few days leaving Acadiana with more typical summer-like weather.  Rain chances should come down to 20-30% for the rest of the week, with highs reaching into the low-mid 90s. 

Another surge in moisture and an upper level disturbance should bump up our rain chances just in time for the weekend.  Incidentally summer “officially” begins on the calendar Wednesday at 7:26am…been there, done that, and we already have the t-shirt! 

Rob Perillo

The upper low that has been trying to give us healthy storms remains parked in Eastern Texas near Lufkin.  On visible satellite imagery this TUTT (tropical upper troposhpheric trough) looks eerily similar to where TS Allison parked back in 2001.  The difference with this system is that the moisture is not nearly as deep as a true tropical system.  We haven’t see big rains in most of Acadiana today, but tomorrow could be different. 

Look for more storms near the center of this circulation tomorrow mainly in extreme Eastern Texas into Southwest Louisiana near Lake Charles.  Scattered storms will be in the mix for the rest of us with locally heavy rains possible in the heavier storms. 

An upper level high will nudge in from the north and east by midweek allowing the aforementioned low to get pushed back to the southwest while it slowly weakens.  This will knock down our rain chances into the 20-30% range and should allow temperatures to push back into the low-mid 90s for the rest of the week.  Rob Perillo

More hefty rains are on tap for Acadiana through this weekend with most activity confined mainly during the daylight hours tapering off during the evening and night time hours.  It is hard to pin-point who is going to be the wettest, but like yesterday, we favor Lafayette/New Iberia on westward with heaviest activity closer to Lake Charles.  Anyone though can pick up a significant amount of precipitation, with Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts indicating the threat of heavy rains from Louisiana to Texas and then to the north.

This is the first significant rain event in Acadiana since April 29^th.  Since then we have generally had less than 1 inch of rain sending all of us back to the severe drought category.  Fortunately, this weekend’s rains will put a dent in the drought for some, but unfortunately it may come down too hard and too fast in some locales, so be on the lookout for localized street flooding Saturday and Sunday.   

High pressure will bank in from the east next week lowering our rain chances (but they will still be there) and allowing temperatures to get back into the 90s. Until then, enjoy the occasionally wet temperatures in the 70s and 80s.  Have a good weekend, keep the umbrellas handy and be careful on the roads.  

Rob Perillo

Rain chances are going to be on the upswing beginning tomorrow with good prospects of scattered storms for Saturday, Sunday and Monday.  Right now we are setting the chance of getting wet at 60% for tomorrow and Saturday and near 50% Sunday and Monday. 

We’ll see what the latest computer models show after the basketball game tonight, but if I were betting, I would say that Saturday should present us with the best chance of getting wet.  Stay tuned…see you after the ballgame!  

Rob Perillo

We are still on our way to higher humidity tomorrow and scattered daytime showers and storms beginning Friday and continuing into the weekend.  An upper low that is in south Texas is expected to drift back to the north and carve out enough of a weakness in the atmosphere into next week.  The bottom line: we should see scattered afternoon showers and storms staying in the forecast through next week. 

The City of Lafayette and LUS are asking all of us to observe the Water Ordinance, and if we can hang on for a few more days, we should eventually get a good shot at getting some much needed moisture.  

The tropics have quieted down post-Alberto, but we are watching a poorly organized tropical wave the Caribbean south of Hispaniola that will be heading toward the Gulf by late this weekend.  Some computer models do grab onto this feature so we’ll pay some attention to it. 

Rob Perillo

It was a few degrees cooler today thanks to a weak frontal boundary that got a push from an upper trough that also picked up Alberto out of the Gulf.  A dry, but hot forecast will stay through Thursday, but changes are on tap for Friday into the weekend.