KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Our typical summer weather (and it has certainly been more typical this month) will continue as we head into a new month.  Scattered afternoon showers and storms will remain in the forecast with the possibility of enhanced rain chances this weekend and possibly into early next week.  The computer models have been indicating a tropical wave/disturbance should be responsible for the higher rain chances this weekend, but it is unclear whether the models are capturing an upper low north of Hispaniola or a tropical disturbance approaching the Northeastern Caribbean.  Time will tell. 

The aforementioned area of disturbed weather approaching the Caribbean broke off from the strong tropical wave that we started watching last week.  The wave stay too far to the south for cyclonic development until today when the southern portion of the wave fizzled while the northern part began moving west-northwestward and appeared to have an area of low pressure attached to it on the western side of the wave.  Recon will investigate this system tomorrow if satellite representation remains healthy…and I think it will. 

Rob Perillo

It looks like we’re heading back to the more “typical” summer pattern with hot and humid conditions accompanied by a few afternoon storms.  Rain chances could go up a little for late Sunday into Monday, and possibly Tuesday, in response to a tropical wave that should be traversing the Gulf.  It looks like a relatively sedate pattern returns with hotter temperatures mid-late next week. 

In the tropics there is a westward moving tropical wave bisecting the Central Caribbean.  Conditions look hostile for any development with this feature in the near term.  Farther east, there is a strong tropical wave accompanied by a surface low pressure system about 650 miles to the WSW of the Cape Verde Islands.  While this system is currently at a low latitude, I think it has plenty of potential for development and it will probably be the next named system…fasten your seatbelts, it will start to get more interesting as we head into the first week of August. 

Rob Perillo

Incredibly heavy rains continue to fall across SE Texas and SW’rn Louisiana this evening.  A Flood Watch is in effect for Cameron, Calcasieu, Beauregard and Vernon parishes through tomorrow, while a Flash Flood Warning has been issued at press time for Calcasieu Parish through 900pm.  Areas near Lake Charles to Beaumont have received 4-8” of rain with the promise of an additional 4-6” this evening in the same areas.  Acadiana will be on the fringes of this weather event, but we will watch it closely.  Typical of tropical systems such as the one we’re currently dealing with would be a contraction of the rain shield back to the low pressure area in Texas.  So the heavy rains in our state should diminish at some point tonight…we hope.  The bottom line is that flooding conditions will be likely from Lake Charles westward through tomorrow.  You can follow the latest storm tallies through the Hydrological Prediction Center Storm Summaries. 

Locally, the forecast for Acadiana will call for a little more sunshine over the next few days, but we won’t be able to shake the tropical moisture, so afternoon showers and storms will stay in the forecast.  Temperatures should climb closer to 90 tomorrow, the lower 90s this weekend, and perhaps the mid-90s next week.  The long range pattern into next week will support tropical waves entering the Gulf with one near us on Monday and another one possible late next week.    

Rob Perillo

Plenty of tropical moisture will stay in the region through the next 24-36 hours with 2-3 inches likely area-wide by Wednesday evening.  Isolated areas may see a little more than that with the threat of greater than 5 inches of rain mostly likely toward Lake Charles and SE Texas.  High pressure with drier more stable air should bank in from the east toward the end of the week which in turn will lower our rain chances to more seasonal levels…that means temperatures getting back into the mid-90s. 

As for our area of disturbed weather in the Gulf, it appears that the lower level circulation remains inland in South Texas but could redevelop farther to the east in open waters.  If the center reforms offshore and the National Hurricane Center finds a closed circulation (no evidence of this at press time), the system could become a tropical depression.  The bottom line, one way or another we’ll see plenty of moisture and rains through Wednesday evening.  Breezy S/SE winds should pick up tomorrow, especially in and near more organized tropical rain showers.   

Rob Perillo

Tons of tropical moisture from the Western Gulf will be spilling into the region over the next several days giving us a good soaking and perhaps, too much rain.  An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave/trough and a weak upper and mid level low located near South Texas will move northward over the next several days pushing high rain chances into Texas and Louisiana.  I’m not expecting any rapid tropical development with this feature, nonetheless the tropical moisture will still be capable of producing area-wide rain amounts in the 2-3” range tomorrow and again on Wednesday.  Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts have us hatched in for several days of widespread rains and we may not shake the bulk of the tropical moisture until after Thursday.  So be ready for not only soggy conditions, but possibly street flooding or something more in more persistent storm areas.  

The feature in the Gulf does have some potential for development tomorrow or Wednesday, provided a low level focusing mechanism (i.e. surface low) develops.  For that to happen, we would have to see circular bursting on the satellite imagery overnight tonight or tomorrow. 

Elsewhere in the tropics, a tropical wave about 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands shows no signs of development but that could change in about a week.  The Bermuda high is displaced unusually far to the south for this time of year so tropical waves in the Atlantic won’t have a chance until they get into the Central Caribbean.  Unfortunately with this pattern, whatever develops in the Caribbean in the next week or two will most likely head into the Gulf.  Finally, check out our new link to download the pdf of our hurricane tracking guide for your plotting pleasure. 

Rob Perillo

Changes are on the way as an upper level trough will bring a weak frontal boundary into the region by tomorrow evening.  As usual in the summertime, the front will weaken, and become diffuse, but there will be enough dynamics left to draw plenty of tropical moisture into the region as we head into next week.  So tomorrow will be another hot and humid one with highs reaching the mid-90s and scattered storms becoming more likely by late afternoon, especially into the evening hours. 

The models have been split on whether enough dry air will move into the region behind this system on Sunday.  Conventional wisdom would indicate that the front gets hung-up along the coast and begins to back up to the north by late in the day.  Coastal parishes therefore, will be the wettest Sunday with drier conditions more likely well inland…north of the I-10 parishes. 

Much of next week will be highlighted by a good chance of scattered showers and storms everyday.  Some locally heavy rainfall will be likely on one or two days of next week.  At least it won’t be as hot after tomorrow with highs closer to the upper 80s to lower 90s. 

Rob Perillo

Strong to severe storms were rolling west-southwestward out of Mississippi this afternoon and as of press time were still quite intense.  Therefore the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch that covers all of Central and Northern Louisiana until 12:00am.  Strongest storms have exhibited excessive amounts of lightning, damaging winds and some hail.  This activity should weaken with the loss of daytime heating but there will be enough momentum to keep the storms rolling at least until 10pm. 

Tomorrow we should see drier, more stable air in the wake of this evening’s storms so mostly sunny and hot with a slight chance of a late afternoon storm remains in order.  Scattered mainly afternoon showers and storms will be in the forecast for Friday with chance of getting wet going up another 10-20% with a frontal trough approaching for the weekend.  This front may get to the coastal areas so it could knock down rain chances Sunday.  But the front will drift back to the north and with favorable moisture and conditions aloft, a good scattered of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at least through Thursday of next week.

Rob Perillo

More heat and humidity are in the forecast tomorrow with our usual 30% chance of scattered late afternoon showers and storms.  Activity could pick-up a little for Thursday as an upper low will drift westward across the area.  Scattered showers and storms will stay in the forecast into the weekend with highs continuing in the low-mid 90s.  Rain chances may get quite healthy next week with much of Acadiana likely to see above normal rains to finish of July. 

In the tropics, the area of disturbed weather of the East Coast was upgraded to a depression this morning and a tropical storm this afternoon.  Tropical Storm Beryl should move to the north and possibly strengthen over the next few days while brushing the East Coast from the Outer Banks of North Carolina through the Delmarva Peninsula and Southern New England.  The bulk of the weather with this system should stay mainly offshore.  Elsewhere, a weak tropical wave spanninng from South Florida through the Yucatan and Northwestern Caribbean, may push into the Southwestern Gulf…no development expected here at this time. 

Rob Perillo

Temperatures this afternoon reached into the upper 90s with heat indices close to 110! It didn’t stay up that high long enough to be included in an Excessive Heat Advisory. The heat has been sweeping the nation with a broad area of high pressure centered over the plains. Around the high, there has been a few impulses of energy that has helped spark up strong showers and storms. It has been hard to time the movement of the disturbances but it is likely to continue through Tuesday. Then the high pressure will move east and our rain chances will go down to the slight category. It will remain hot and humid so try to stay cool with these tips:

Drink lots of water before and during any outdoor activities.

Wear loose-fitting, light-colored, light-weight clothing.

Wear a hat to protect your head.

Never leave anyone in a locked car, especially children and pets.

Don’t forget to take care of your pets by making sure they have shelter, plenty of cool water, or bringing them inside.

Avoid the sun, if possible, between the hours of 10am and 4pm.

Eat light, small meals.

If you feel light headed sit down and get in the shade.

Enjoy your week!

Kari Hall

 

 

Our pattern of daytime showers and a few thunderstorms will continue over the next several days and for a good part of next week.  If you like highs between 91 and 95, lows near 75 and a 30-40% chance of getting wet each day, you’ll love the forecast through next weekend. 

One interesting change I’ve noted in the computer models is that the big, hot ridge of high pressure over the western states is expected to build eastward rather than southeastward.  The ridge will be flatter and farther north than was forecast in previous days.  What does that mean for us?  Well we’re not going much hotter for next week, with tropical easterlies keeping the scattered storms in the forecast.  This pattern, if it verifies, could lend itself to a more active tropical picture in Central America, the Western Caribbean and perhaps the Southern Gulf of Mexico (or it could mean at least a couple more of Pacific storms near-term).  The pattern should evolve in the next week to 14 days, which would be about right considering tropical climatology and the forecast for this year.  By mid-August the pattern should spread into the entire Caribbean.  Of course, in about 4 weeks we’ll probably be talking about a tropical system per week, so we are inching closer to the heart of the season we dread.  Near term, we’ll see if lower surface pressures begin to develop in the vicinity of Central America and the Western Caribbean.  

On that note, have a good weekend!   

Rob Perillo