KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

The forecast is pretty much on track with a few scattered showers possible Wednesday preceding, accompanying and following a cool front tomorrow.  Guidance is a little cooler for late in the week so look for highs in the 60s Thursday and Friday with morning lows in the mid-upper 40s.  I’m still looking at our next storm event to arrive by next Monday evening.  This system may induce some shower activity with a warm front on Sunday and should give us a healthy round of storms Monday night.  It’s too early to tell whether there will be severe weather, but it is a possibility.  This system should be progressive in nature so hopefully the rains won’t be too heavy but 1-2 inches would be a good guess right now.  It’s still looking quite wet and stormy the following weekend. 

Good news for the astronomy community as the Space Shuttle will go on a service mission to the Hubble Telescope sometime in 2008.  In addition to the continued research that will be enabled by this mission, there should be an extra bonus for  Acadiana.  The trajectory of this service mission should give us an opportunity to see the Shuttle re-entering the atmosphere.  The return will have to be in the evening, night time or early morning hours for us to see the plasma trail…so we’ll need a little luck as well.  NASA’s policy has been against night time re-entries so I’d be willing to bet on a morning arrival…So in addition to more beautiful Hubble images, we’ll have something to look forward to!

It looks like we’ll have a nice and mild, and mostly dry Halloween.  An upper level disturbance will spark off a few scattered showers, but chances of getting wet at press time appeared to be not much higher than 20%.  Temperatures during trick or treat times will range in the upper 60s to lower 70s.  A few showers may still be possible early Wednesday prior to a cold front pushing drier air in the region by Wednesday afternoon.  It will be nice and cool, with a fair bit of cloud cover for the rest of the week with moderating temperatures for the weekend.  We could see a few showers as early as Sunday but there will be better rain chances early next week. 

The system early next week is not looking too wet, but this El Nino fall has been much more dynamic than advertised by the computer models.  The long-range models are still dialed into a big system in about 11-12 days.  The GFS model is looking quite ominous for heavy rain and maybe severe weather around the November 11-13 time-frame.  Although not depicted well on the GFS link, our in-house analysis looks very wet and stormy.  Hopefully the pattern and the forecast will change.  Near-term enjoy the relatively benign pattern.

 

It’s time to set your clock back an hour. That means sun earlier in the morning and sunset at 5:24! High pressure will continue to bring sunny skies until Tuesday when the high pressure slides east and brings a return flow from the Gulf. Then moisture will increase and rain chances will be back in the forecast for the rest of the week. So there will be a slight chance of rain Halloween as a trough passes to the north.

We are still seeing the effects of the flooding from Thursday night. Flood warnings are in effect for everyone along the Calcasieu and Mermentau Rivers as water will continue to rise for the next few days. Minor to moderate flooding is forecast.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend!

Kari Hall

Historical rains fell last night and early this morning across the northern portions of Acadiana.  Generally 8-12” of rain (highlighted in yellow (red-magenta was near 15”) fell in roughly a 12 hour period leading to serious flooding…and it only got worse farther to the west.  Major flooding of homes has occurred in St Landry, Acadia and Jeff Davis Parishes locally with more in northern Calcasieu and southern Beauregard Parishes.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see 8-9 day rain totals in the extreme western part of the state to be in the 25-30” range.  Check with the NWS  for the latest information and river stages.  Even though the rain has stopped it may take a good part of the weekend for the Mermentau, Bayou Nezpique and Bayou Courtableau to crest.  The Whisky Chitto, the Calcasieu, the Sabine and other area bayous will stay high through much of next week.  Watch our newscasts for the latest.

As of 7:00pm this evening heavy rains have been pounding Southeast Texas and Southwestern Louisiana with 5-7 inches of rain.  Unfortunately these areas may see an addition 4-6 inches tonight with some isolated areas likely receiving up to double that.  Flood warnings have been posted for most of Acadiana…here’s the current crawl that we are running on air “  FLOOD WARNINGS are in effect for most of Acadiana with the exception of Iberia and St Mary Parishes where FLOOD WATCHES are in effect…Additional rainfall totals tonight will be 4-6 inches with higher amounts in isolated areas especially north and west of  Lafayette…Street flooding will be likely area wide with high water approaching some homes and businesses…In addition, there will be an increasing severe weather threat later tonight through early tomorrow morning”…A strong upper level low rolling out of the Rockies will likely throw more gasoline on the fire with the dynamics increasing to the point where damaging winds will be a possibility.  With all the rain that will have fallen before the last squall gets here, it won’t take much wind to knock down some trees.  The storm should end around daybreak tomorrow…I’ll be here in the Weather Lab all night so stay tuned for the latest, and then for more continued coverage with Dave on Good Morning Acadiana.  Be careful out there!

The storm system that spans from the Rockies through the plains and down through Mexico is getting it’s act together with mostly moderate rains confined mainly to eastern Texas and western and northern Louisiana.  I expect about and inch or two of rain tonight in areas that don’t need it…in the same area that received 15-20” last week.  The QPF folks continue to wrestle with models that remain at odds, plus we are all not too sure where the remant moisture field of TS Paul will go.  There will be a possibility of another 4-7” in the same previously drenched region through tomorrow night and early Friday.  Very bad news for our friends in Eastern Texas and Western Louisiana.  Much of Acadiana will likely see 2-3” with isolated amounts likely higher especially in the northern and western portions of Acadiana.  Flood and Flash Flood Watches of been hoisted across the region since our saturated grounds won’t take much more than 3” before becoming problematic.  Activity should be scattered in nature tonight but will become more widespread by tomorrow evening.  Then a significant squall line will likely develop late tomorrow night and sweep across Acadiana during the very early morning hours of Friday.  This squall will likely produce severe weather to our north and west but there will be enough dynamics to produce wind-damaging storms and possibly isolated tornadoes close to home…so be on the look out late tomorrow night.  The weekend still looks fair and cool, but showers could return for Halloween, but hopefully be out of here by trick or treat times.  

A significant storm system is developing in the southwestern states while tropical moisture from the Pacific and Tropical Storm Paul are getting caught up in the mix.  The latest fly in the ointment today is that the computer models are not consistent in their depiction of moisture fields with this system.  The models are slowing down the progress of the upper low associated with this system so the rains may not be over with until late Thursday night or very early Friday morning.  As I alluded to in yesterday’s blog, the QPF folks are indeed upping the rain totals area-wide, and the local NWS is also upping their expected rain totals.  Generally we should start off with patchy light to moderate rains tomorrow afternoon with embedded heavier convection developing tomorrow evening, especially in the western areas of Acadiana.  On and off showers and thunderstorms will prevail tomorrow night through Thursday night, with the slight risk of severe weather also part of the equation.  So expect at least another couple of inches of rain over the next few days, and possibly a few strong storms.  But at least the weekend is still looking nice and cool.  We probably won’t clear out until Friday night so look for cloudy, breezy and cool conditions for Friday.  Another factor with this dynamic storm system will be the wind; strong south to southeast winds will be with us tomorrow afternoon through Thursday evening so tides 1-2ft normal wouldn’t be out of the question. 

It’s nice and cool out there to start the week, but as we all know, it won’t last for long.  It will stay nice and dry through tomorrow evening, but high clouds will begin to invade the area by late in the day.  The clouds will thicken Wednesday with patchy rain likely by late in the day (another warm front).  Rain and thunderstorms will be likely toward Thursday morning as another storm system swings out of the Southwestern US.  The wild card with this one is a tropical system in the Pacific (Hurricane Paul).  The moisture with this system may get entrained into the weather system that will affect us mid-week…and that may lead to heavier rains.  Right now the quantitative precipitation folks are not going with much precipitation in the region, but I would be willing to bet that there will be at least a couple of inches of rain in the area before all is said and done by Thursday evening.  The good news is that the weekend is shaping up to be quite nice…but we could see showers returning by Halloween…trick or treat?

Rain continues on already saturated ground. Flood watches and warnings are in effect but drier conditions are on the way. After the warm front moves through overnight a shot of Canadian air will bring much nicer weather for a few days. Get ready for lows in the upper 40s! That is what we can expect Monday and Tuesday morning with highs in the low 70s. Another disturbance will move through mid-week to bring more rain.

So the struggle between cold and warm air continues. Just as we get a cold front it moves into the Gulf, stalls, and lifts back over us as a warm front bringing deep moisture. Then comes another cold blast. Hopefully, this roller coaster weather won’t make you sick.

Enjoy your weekend!

Kari Hall

The forecast is on track, but I’ve bumped-up the timing of our next wet weather system.  Clouds will increase tomorrow morning with rain chances increasing through tomorrow afternoon.  It appears that the severe weather threat should be minimal with this system, but we could have some potent storms skirting the coastal parishes.  This system will be progressive in nature so I expect rainfall totals to be no more than 1-2”.  But with some areas so saturated from storms this week, anything more than that will cause flooding troubles.  Another round of storms will be likely tomorrow night with wet weather ending during Sunday morning.  Nice and cool conditions will follow Sunday evening and will carry us through Tuesday.  Mid-late next week will likely bring us more heavy rains and the threat of severe weather.  The details for late next week are still hazy so I have broad-brushed the rain chances Wednesday through Saturday with perhaps one of those days not too wet.  We’ll have a better feel for this one as we head into early next week.  Have a good weekend.