KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

It was another rough and tumble morning with about a dozen severe weather reports.  Most of the reports locally came from Acadia, St Landry and Evangeline parishes.  As expected, very heavy rains (on the order of 4-7”) fell in Beauregard, Vernon, Rapides and Avoyelles parishes, but as the squall line accelerated across Acadiana, rainfall tallies closer to home ran about 1-2”.  Most of the damage reports locally were likely from downburst, or almost straight line winds with trees, carports and barns the popular report.  Fortunately we had no reports of injuries. 

Breezy and cool weather will move in tonight and will stay with us through tomorrow night, but another weather turnaround is expected for this weekend.  Clouds and maybe showers and thunderstorms could return as early as late Saturday afternoon with another healthy front likely to produce some sort of squall line across the area to home.  Moisture and instability should be a little more limited so the threat of severe weather should be slight…but so far this season everything has been coming in stronger than the models have been advertising so we’ll see how this one pans out.  The heavy rain threat should be definitely lower with this system as it will be a progressive one.  We’ll get a nice and cool break again early next week but a stronger round of storms and several rounds of heavy rains may be possible mid-late next week.  Lots of overtime in the Weather Lab to come!

Here we go again with another strong weather system to bring heavy rains to the region.  Once again moisture returned from the Gulf of Mexico today with surprising gusto.  We meteorologists dread El Nino years because severe weather is more active over the region, the rain events are more extreme, and the forecast “bust potential” goes way up. All comments aside, we do have a Flood Watch in effect for all of Acadiana through tomorrow. Rainfall totals between this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon should be generally in the 2-4 inch range, but unfortunately there will likely be isolated areas that receive 5-8 inches of rain, or better.  And right now, the highest risk of an 8-10 rain is generally in the same areas that received better than a foot of rain Monday…across eastern Texas into western Louisiana.  Locally I think Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron, Allen, Evangeline, Jeff Davis, Acadia and St Landry Parishes (and points to the north) will be under the greatest threat for flooding…but none of us will be void of the flood threat.  In addition, with the approach of a moderately strong cold front, there may be a severe weather risk for very late tonight into tomorrow.  The main severe weather threat would be damaging winds, but we can’t rule out an isolated tornado.  Cooler drier conditions will move in for Friday, but yet another system will arrive by Sunday.  But the next one will bring in much cooler air and a longer period between weather systems. You may want to check out the NWS post analysis of Monday’s event…interesting stuff. 

Today was a good day to mop up and dry out…unfortunately it has been a little too hot.  Yesterday’s weather was quite volatile with numerous reports of wind damage, several tornadic reports and rainfalls that spanned from near an inch in Lafayette to 12-14 inches across eastern Texas and western Louisiana.  In addition, the strong southerly winds with that weather system yesterday brought a 3-4 foot storm surge to the coastal parishes with high water reported from Cameron to Cypremort Point, and as far inland as Henry in Vermilion Parish.  Even though the winds have diminished, the water has been slow to recede due to higher than normal astronomical tides, but a slow improvement is expected through tomorrow. 

Our sedate pattern will last another 24 hours with the next vigorous system to approach for very late tomorrow night into Thursday.  Once again there may be a severe weather threat with this next one, but it shouldn’t be as dynamic as yesterday’s action, nor am I expecting another shot of strong southerly winds.  Fair and cooler weather will finish of our week and start the weekend, but changes will occur before Saturday is done. 

Another weather-maker will be possible Saturday night into Sunday but moisture and dynamics will be questionable for strong storms, but do expect wet weather by Sunday.   Thereafter, it should be nice and cool early next week.  You’ve probably guessed it, but look for another boisterous weather system mid-late next week…and that one looks quite strong…we’ll see.

This is our latest crawl as of 300pm…From Rob Perillo in the StormTeam 3 Weather Lab…A TORNADO WATCH remains in effect for most of Acadiana through 7:00pm…Also, a FLOOD WATCH is in effect through Tuesday morning…Strong to severe storms will be capable of producing isolated tornadoes and flooding rains especially in western and northern portions of Acadiana through this evening…In addition, a COASTAL FLOOD WARNING is in effect for Cameron, Vermilion, Iberia and St Mary Parishes through 7:00pm for tides up to 4-5ft above normal due to strong southerly winds…Flooding has been reported in Cameron and at Cypremort Point…Stay with KATC for additional information and updates, and Power Doppler 3000 displays or go to www.katc.com…

Unfortunately, the beautiful weather has ended and the rain is here. Heavier pockets of rain and thunderstorms will move through all day Monday. A warm front lifting from the Gulf as well as a low level jet will enhance the possibility of severe weather and up to 5 inches when all is said and done.

We have a Coastal Flood Warning in effect until 7 pm Tuesday. That means tides will be between 4-5 feet and may cause coastal flooding at high tide early Monday morning. We also have a Flood Watch in effect for all of Acadiana until Tuesday morning. Heavy rain could make flooding in low areas and small streams. And a Lake Wind Advisory will be in effect until 7 pm Monday. So we have a lot going on and temperatures will not help as highs will reach into the upper 80s by Wednesday.

We can look forward to a cold front that is now expected by Thursday but the sunshine will be short lived before our next disturbance comes.

Enjoy your week.

Kari Hall

Changes to yesterday’s forecast include higher rain chances for Sunday and Monday with the possibility of severe weather on both days.  The cool weather and fair skies will depart on Sunday as a vigorous warm front and an area of low pressure develop in the Western Gulf and then advance northward. 

This type of warm air advection combined with veering winds with height may allow for nasty, possibly severe storms to develop on Sunday.  As of this writing, the Storm Prediction Center does not have us hatched in for severe weather, but if the models stay consistent I think they will change their outlook for our area.  Unfortunately there appears to be strong enough dynamics early next week to generate more heavy storms.  In addition, I wouldn’t be surprised if 2-3 day rain accumulations are in the 3-5” range-so be on the lookout…we will!  Have a good weekend.  

A rotating severe thunderstorm embedded in a squall line pounded portions of Beauregard and Allen parishes this afternoon with numerous reports of wind damage, a couple of tornadoes and hail.  You can check out the official reports from the Storm Prediction Center.  Fortunately at press time we have not gotten any reports of any injuries.  Most of the damage and tornadic activity was confined to DeRidder and near the Dry Prong area in Beauregard Parish, with wind damage also reported near Mittie in Allen Parish.  In addition 1 inch size hail was also reported, mainly around the DeRidder area.  Fortunately the storms weakened as they moved east-southeastward this evening as upper winds have been less favorable for strong storms.   

Expect showers and a few rumbles of thunder this evening with activity briefly ending with our cool front.  But behind the front, we could see patchy rain or drizzle redevelop overnight but ending by tomorrow morning.  The latest computer models, which are not doing a good job of late, indicate that clouds will linger all day tomorrow, but I think we’ll see some clearing during the afternoon.  Temperatures will drop into the mid-upper 50s tonight and tomorrow night and will be confined to the 70s tomorrow.  Warmer weather will return this weekend with Saturday looking okay, but wet weather is anticipated for Sunday and into early next week.

A large mass of rain moving through the area tonight will gradually weaken overnight with just a few renegade showers possible through mid-tomorrow morning.  Tomorrow afternoon should be mostly sunny and warm with highs reaching back into the mid-80s.  Big changes are still on tap for Thursday with a strong cold front crossing the region by Thursday evening. A squall line could be generated ahead of this front Thursday so there may be the threat of severe storms…right now we are not hatched in for a risk, but that forecast might change by this time tomorrow.  Behind this front I expect very windy conditions Thursday night into Friday with lingering clouds likely behind the front for Friday.  Temperatures should drop into the low-mid 50s for Thursday and Friday nights, while highs on Friday might not make it out of the 60s!  Expect milder to eventually warmer conditions this weekend with over-running rains possible ahead of the front as it returns as a warm front form the Gulf.  Best dynamics for precipitation should be for Sunday…but these systems are tricky to forecast so will see how it pans out.  There continues to be signals for disturbances in the sub-tropical jet early nexy week that will bring scattered showers and locally heavy thunderstorms at least for Monday and Tuesday, perhaps beyond.  The pattern looks favorable for above normal temperatures with wetter than normal conditions through a good part of this month.

Lots of changes are in store for Acadiana over the next week with a series of disturbances likely to bring showers and some thunderstorms for mid-week followed by the coldest air of the season for Friday.  A weak disturbance will pass through the area by late tomorrow perhaps bringing a few isolated showers in the western portions of Acadiana by late tomorrow afternoon.  A stronger disturbance should bring a better chance of scattered showers and storms tomorrow night into Wednesday while another could bring rain and storms to the area again on Thursday accompanying a polar front that will get here for Thursday night.  Quantitative precipitation forecasts are indicating that the heaviest rains this week will be in Texas, but rain totals this week could be in the inch range. 

The coolest weather of the season should be here by Friday with highs hard-pressed to make 70 degrees Friday afternoon.  Look for overnight lows to drop into the lower 50s through Saturday morning, but don’t get too used to the cool air as the front is expected to move back to the north rapidly this weekend.  Strong warm fronts in El Nino years can sometimes bring severe weather, so be on the lookout this weekend, especially Sunday.  We may even see a few strong storms before the front gets here midweek so we’ll be watching for that as well.  Finally, another strong disturbance coming for the south and west could ignite intense storms by next Monday, so it appears that our weather will begin to get “El Nino-dynamic” as we head into mid-late October.