KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

What a classic cold front!  Temperatures dropped 20 degrees inside of an hour this afternoon as the front blasted through the area.  We hit 83 degrees for a high this afternoon, and today may be the last 80 degree day for the rest of the year…perhaps until February!  Temperatures appear to be on track to drop to the mid-upper 30s tonight but a frost and/or freeze is pretty much out of the question as the winds will keep the atmosphere stirred up.  Nonetheless, expect wind chills to reach down into the mid-20s by morning so bundle up!  Highs tomorrow will reach no higher than the lower 50s with lows tomorrow night getting closer to freezing thanks to diminishing winds and clear skies.  Winds will stay quite gusty tonight, at 20-35mph, but should drop to 10-15mph or less by late tomorrow afternoon.  It will stay seasonably cool/cold through the weekend into next week with a secondary surge of cool air arriving Sunday.  I think our best opportunity for freezing temperatures will come Sunday night into Monday morning and again Monday night into Tuesday morning.  At least we are not looking at any kind of pipe-busting cold…yet…lot’s of winter to go!   

Check out Jim Bradshaw’s article in The Advertiser today.  He interviewed Roger Erickson who is the Warning Coordinating Meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Lake Charles.  He concurs with my blog from last week that there may be a slightly better chance of wintry precipitation in this El Nino year.  Finally, hurricane season ends today with not even a whimper…thanks to El Nino…hopefully it lasts into next summer.  Jim Bradshaw, who does a great job as our local weather historian, also penned an article regarding the end of the hurricane season.  Now this is the time for us to have a “hurricane party”!

Winter is heading our way for tomorrow night into the weekend.  A few adjustments to yesterday’s forecast would include the timing of the hefty storms, their intensity, and temperatures behind this system.  The storms will be most likely tomorrow afternoon ending during the early evening hours.  We are still under the slight risk threat for storms producing damaging winds…and since the storms should be moving between 55-60mph it may not take much to produce wind damage.  Temperatures behind the front should drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s with wind chills likely in the upper 20s by Friday morning.  We’ll be hard-pressed to make it out of the 40s for a high on Friday with the possibility of freezing temperatures, or slightly above, for Saturday morning.  As I mentioned yesterday, another upper disturbance will roll through the area late Saturday night into Sunday opening up the door for a secondary surge of colder air that will carry us into early next week.  The next chance of precipitation will be Wednesday…and it should be just patchy rain…but I wouldn’t be surprised if there would be a non-accumulating wintry mix just north of Acadiana, depending on the precipitation onset time…nonetheless, it’s going to feel like winter through much of next week…stay warm!

I’m still anticipating a strong cold front to cross the area Thursday with winter-like temperatures likely Friday through the weekend into early next week.  The Storm Prediction Center has indeed included us in the slight risk area for severe weather Thursday, but dynamics may be weaker as the squall line progresses across our part of the world.  Nonetheless, I would expect fairly hefty storms Thursday followed by strong winds and much colder weather Friday.  Temperature-wise, I am going below computer model guidance for highs and lows this weekend and I would anticipate slightly colder conditions early next week.  The reasoning behind looking for colder temperatures would be that the airmass that’s heading our way will be chilled by frozen precipitation on the ground over Colorado, Oklahoma, and Texas, while a secondary upper disturbance this weekend should open the door for a secondary surge of the cold air to get here by Monday morning.  Look for highs to be confined to the 50s Friday through Monday with lows staying in the 30s.  So it looks like it will feel like December by the time December actually gets here!   

We’re off to a nice and mild star this week with seasonably warm temperatures expected to continue through Thursday.  In the near-term, look for partly to at times mostly cloudy skies with a few passing showers tomorrow and Wednesday.  We could see some hefty storms Thursday ahead of a strong cold front that could bring a quick shot of winter-like temperatures for Friday into Saturday.  There might be a severe weather threat with this front, and there might be a one night freeze following this system, but it’s too early to tell on both items.  I would bet on windy conditions however, especially following the front on Friday.  Stay tuned for updates!

So far so good with our weather as we continue to be on a nice and cool roll.  Warmer temperatures remain in the forecast with a gradual increase in low level moisture through the rest of the weekend.  That means there will be increasing odds of seeing patchy dense fog by the morning hours along with partly cloudy afternoon skies.  A series of disturbances will be rolling at us from the southwest as we head into next week allowing for some scattered shower activity.  But the main shower and thunderstorm action should get here by late Wednesday into Thursday in response to the next cold front that should chill us back down for next weekend .We could see some beefy storms by early Thursday.

 If you missed my winter forecast last night, here’s an update:  based on what the El Nino experts are saying and current trends, it looks like we’ll see a near normal temperature regime from December through February…which should give us a winter that will be colder than last year’s (we only had 3-4 freezing days last winter with virtually no readings reaching down into the upper 20s).  Rainfall should stay at or above normal which could translate to a slightly better than normal risk of frozen precipitation.  We average measurable snowfall in Acadiana once in every ten years…this year may not bring much better chances of snow, but I would be willing to bet on a better chance of an ice or sleet event at some point this winter…but quantifying any event is nearly impossible.  But say a 20-30% chance of some sort of frozen precipitation event this year wouldn’t be a bad guess…okay stop the jokes!  The pattern of late has been contrary to the aforementioned forecast, but that happens in every day weather patterns.  Look for a definite change from our current weather pattern next week.  Happy Thanksgiving!

Tonight will be another chilly one with optimal conditions anticipated for radiational cooling.  With dry high pressure in place and light winds, radiational cooling occurs when it is easy for the heat trapped near the surface and in the lowest layers of the atmosphere to escape aloft.  Warm air rises and in its wake we see a net cooling at the surface.  And that’s why we sometimes see frost when air temperatures are in the mid-upper 30s, even in the lower 40s.  Radiational cooling also occurs at the “micro” level which is generally lower than the 6 foot level that we actually measure temperature.  So when you see frost on grass it’s 32 deg or colder at grass level, while it can be a lot milder just a few feet up.  In addition, when you get down to ground level you also get an evaporative cooling factor from moisture in the ground, thereby giving us many opportunities for frost even when it’s not really that cold.  Normally our frostiest of nights in Acadiana are the second or third night after a cold air mass moves in.  So expect frosty conditions by morning with a subtle warm-up staying in the forecast for the rest of the week and into the weekend.  Showers still appear to be on tap for early next week.  Program Note:  Wednesday night I will be talking about our winter outlook for the area…can we expect a better chance of snow this winter?  Tune in and see!

It could be the coldest night in Acadiana since our last freeze (31-on February 12)…The National Weather Service has issued a Freeze Warning for the I-10 parishes and points to the north.  Freeze warnings are generally issued when the first growing season killing frost or freeze is expected.  Light north winds may keep radiational cooling from being maximized, but do expect temperatures to be near or slightly below freezing from about 4:00am through 8:00am.  This won’t be a pipe busting cold, but protection for tropical plants and pets is suggested.  Indoors, be careful with space heaters and make sure you have a carbon monoxide detector in your home.  Invariably we report on a number of fatal home fires/and carbon monoxide poisonings every winter and it would be great if we didn’t get any of those stories this year.  It should warm-up nicely for mid-late week with highs reaching the 70s for Thanksgiving and approaching 80 degrees this weekend.  Next chance of rain should come by mid-next week.

We have had a beautiful weekend with crystal clear blue skies and comfortable afternoon temperatures. High pressure will remain with us through the week with no chances of rain through at least next Monday. The only concern is the possiblity of a light freeze Tuesday morning. With clear skies, dry air, and light winds our low temperature could dip to 32 north of Highway 190 through Krotz Springs, Opelousas, and Eunice. South of 190, it looks like it won’t quite make it to the freezing mark, and if so very briefly. For those who hit the mark it will be less than two hours so the threat of freezing pipes is low. You will however have to worry about tender vegetation and take care of pets. The next question is, will it be enough to kill off some of those mosquitoes and the answer is NO, unfortunately. The good thing is our weather will be beautiful all week long.

Enjoy your week!

Kari Hall

The weather and the moonless sky should be optimal for viewing the Leonid Meteor Shower tonight and tomorrow night.  But forecasting meteor showers is harder than forecasting the weather!  Tomorrow night should be the best night between 900pm and midnight but it would be better if we lived in the Northeast U.S. or Europe, but reports coming in from Queensland, Australia last night were surprisingly good…so there is some cause for optimism.  The “shooting stars” will be best visible here probably after midnight tonight, but tomorrow night is expected to be the prime night.  They should be visible in any part of the sky, but I would favor looking more to the north and east.  Make sure you get away from the city lights, give your eyes 15 minutes to adjust to darkness and make sure you bundle up.  Happy viewing!

The 8 day forecast says it all!  Nice and cool conditions will stay with us through early next week with another surge of cool air getting here for the latter part of the weekend.  It looks to stay dry through Thanksgiving, but temperatures will be warmer, perhaps even pushing 80 for late next week into the following weekend.  I don’t see a significant weather maker through at least the end of next week and I wouldn’t be surprised if we finish off the month with little or no precipitation.  Of course the very next run of the computer models will likely say something else, but for now enjoy.