KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Check out the latest list of reported severe weather events from Friday night into Saturday morning from the NWS.  Thanks to all that emailed reports, sent pictures and called in for updates…Rob

We’ll start 2007 on a much quieter and cooler note with lots of sunshine tomorrow and Tuesday.  Highs will be in the mid-upper 50s over the next few days while lows drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s.  Clouds will be returning on Wednesday and it looks to shape up to be a wet Thursday.  The next weather-maker will likely bring the threat of heavy rains once again…but maybe not as intense of yesterday’s event.  Nonetheless another 2-3” of rain will be likely, and with the grounds saturated and the rivers, bayous and coulees full, we might have some flood issues to deal with again.  There will also be the possibility of severe weather with this system, but the threat may be confined closer to the coast or offshore, depending on where the low pressure system stacks up.  

With Friday night’s/Saturday morning’s weather event, a surface meso-low pressure system developed along the squall line in SW Louisiana and this low produced the tornadic circulations across portions of Acadia, Lafayette, Vermilion and St Landry Parishes.  Yesterday’s rains of 4-8” regionally helped push Lafayette closer to the normal for the year. 

We had some drought-oriented months this past spring, but the latter part of the summer through the fall brought above normal rains.  So Lafayette wound up with rainfall about 10” below normal for the year…but we improved on 2005 and actually gained ground as we entered 2006 about 21” below normal.  It is interesting to note, that areas across western Louisiana like Beauregard, Vernon and Sabine Parishes have received more than 40” of rain since October alone!  We’ll get the year ending totals from that part of the state in the days tom come.  Happy New Year!     

It was a rough morning as expected with two reported tornadoes in Mire and Cankton, flooding all over Acadiana, and rainfall amounts in excess of 5 inches. Thankfully, there has not been any injuries but many properties have been damaged.

Some rainfall totals around the area:

New Iberia 3.3 *record*

Lafayette 4.0 *record*

Lake Charles 4.11 *record*

Alexandria 3.4 *record*

KATC 3.14

Just unbelievable numbers in a very short time. Many viewers reported flooding up to 11 inches in places that have never flooded before. Rivers remain swolen above flood stage but should begin to slowly recede by Monday.

The tornado reports came will a squall that moved through just before 7am. In Cankton a roof was damaged along with items blown up to a half of a mile away. In Kaplan, a 73 mph wind gust was reported which also damaged a roof.  

All of this from an occluded front slowly moving eastward producing a very unstable atmosphere with unually high amounts of moisture for this time of year. When a front occludes, it has reached maturity in its development and cold air begins to ride over the warm air. This in turn continues to make the atmosphere more out of balance and rotating storms develop. The squall line moved relatively quickly through our area but seemed to stall over New Orleans where it rained all afternoon and evening. The system is weakening as it moves east due to its far displacement from the center of low pressure but heavy rain will still be possible for the southeast tomorrow.

From here we will begin to dry out and temperatures will be nice and seasonable all week long with our next chance of rain on Thursday.

Happy New Year!

Kari Hall

A Flood Watch has been issued for the area in anticipation of at least 2-4” of rain.  Our in-house models have consistently supported rainfall amounts of 3-5” area-wide with isolated hot spots in the 7-9” range.  This will translate to localized street flooding with some homes possibly being threatened by flooding rains as our grounds have been fairly saturated and will only take about 3-4” before run-off issues commence.  In addition, there is still a severe weather threat overnight through mid-afternoon tomorrow as the wind dynamics will remain strong.  Fortunately the strongest dynamics will come in an unfavorable part of the diurnal cycle where daytime heating will not be a factor adding to the instability.  Nonetheless, with a low-mid level jet in the 70-80mph range, it may not take much for rotating thunderstorms to develop and push some of those damaging winds with the downdrafts to push down to the surface.  Isolated tornadoes, especially over the northern part of Acadiana into Central Louisiana, are certainly possible after midnight.  I would expect either a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch to be issued for the area through the late night and at least morning hours tomorrow.  Stay with KATC for the latest, we’ll be here watching the radars and will provide weather updates as needed.

We are still on track for a nasty weather event for tomorrow night into early Saturday.  The latest in-house computer guidance this afternoon is certainly indicating that a severe weather event will develop close to home.  The low level jet stream (at 5,000ft) tomorrow night will increase to near 75mph.  This indicates two things: the threat of incredibly high rainfall rates, on the order of 2-3” per hour, and the increased likelihood of rotating storms that will produce damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.  In fact, although the Storm Prediction Center has us hatched in for a slight risk of severe weather, I wouldn’t be surprised if we were upgraded into a moderate risk category.  I think the greatest risk of tornadic thunderstorms will be across west-central Louisiana where the highest severe weather parameters will be found.  Don’t be surprised if a “tornado watch” is issued for our area by late tomorrow evening…stay tuned…

Near-term we’ll stay breezy and mild tonight, with gusty southeast winds increasing to 20-30mph tomorrow afternoon.  Rain chances will increase to 50% by late tomorrow afternoon and near 100% late tomorrow night into early Saturday.  There should be a nice improvement by late Saturday afternoon with dry conditions into the New Year.  We appear entering a dynamic weather period over the next few weeks so get ready for more of the same through mid-January.  The next wet weather system should arrive by Wednesday of next week.

It looks like our next weather-maker will be a little slower to get here, so rain chances will be highest Friday night into early Saturday.  Today’s models still indicate very strong wind dynamics and favorable vertical profiles conducive to producing wind damaging storms and maximizing atmospheric forcing for heavy rains.  The latest QPF guidance coming from the HPC indicates that we are on target for a 3-4 inch rain with isolated areas likely to get more than that.  In addition, I think that the strong southerly to southeasterly winds ahead of this system will likely cause some sort of coastal flooding.  Although there is no official guidance out there, tides running at least 2ft above normal is a distinct possibility.  Near term look for cool conditions tonight, with breezy and milder conditions tomorrow.  Clouds will increase tomorrow afternoon with the chance of patchy light rain as a warm front advances northward from the Gulf.     

We had a nice and cool one today with sunshine finally returning after a couple of gloomy days.  Moderating temperatures are in order for the next several days.  Highs will reach near 60 tomorrow and should be in the 70s Thursday and Friday.  The next storm system that rolls through here on Friday will have some very strong wind dynamics with it.  So in addition to the threat of locally very heavy rains, severe weather will also be possible.  This next system looks more like a fall or spring system, and when we see them in the winter time, it is that more impressive.  Another issue this storm may bring is coastal flooding with very strong southerly winds coming off of the Gulf Thursday night into Friday.  So enjoy the sedate weather over the next couple of days.  This weekend will bring back breezy and cooler conditions.  New Year’s Eve and Day look for chilly and dry conditions with temperatures running about 10 degrees below normal.

Cool weather came to visit for Christmas after a wet Christmas Eve. High pressure will regain control and bring some drier air Tuesday but it will still be chilly with highs only reaching 50. By Wednesday the center of high pressure will move east and a strong return flow will boost our temperatures up to 60, then 72 by Thursday. With the passage of our next frontal system on Friday, dynamics look strong enough for possibly severe weather but that is something we will be watching later this week. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.

Kari Hall

A big surprise for us today as the Space Shuttle Discovery came in overhead Acadiana at about 4:20pm this afternoon.  Unfortunately the cirrostratus clouds remained thick and did not clear out so we couldn’t see the plasma trail.  But we did hear the sonic boom at 4:22pm this afternoon.  The shuttle landed just 10 minutes later.  NASA was stuck with marginal weather and showers at the Kennedy Space Center this afternoon so they bypassed the first landing opportunity to Florida.  The second landing opportunity was to Edwards Air Force Base in California, but unpredictable cross winds pushed NASA to look at White Sands in New Mexico, but increasing cloud cover and strong winds, combined with limited resources pushed NASA back to looking at Florida.  Even though there were plenty of showers, layered clouds, and darkness was descending on the area, the decision was made to land in Florida.  The landing ground track on this opportunity brought the shuttle in right overhead across the I-10 corridor.  The last time that happened was when Columbia tried to return in February 2003.   When the shuttle flies space station missions, the normal landing trajectory takes the craft over Central America, across the southeastern Gulf and then into Florida.  The landing trajectory over us usually involves a missed first opportunity, or the shuttle is flying a non-space station mission, like servicing the Hubble Telescope or other science missions.  So we were at least lucky enough to hear the sonic boom this afternoon, even though there was no visual identification.  Based on the shuttle telemetry, Discovery was passing across southern Louisiana at roughly 40-50 miles high; decelerating from Mach 12 to Mach 8…that’s about 10,000mph down to 5,000mph!  Roughly 8 minutes after clearing New Orleans, the craft lands at Kennedy….cool stuff!   There won’t be many more opportunities for us to see this marvelous event, but hopefully when NASA services the Hubble Telescope we’ll get another chance. 

Weather-wise, expect dry and cool conditions through tomorrow night, wet and chilly conditions for Christmas Eve, with partly cloudy and cool conditions for Christmas Day.  Merry Christmas!  Rob 

It’s promising to be stormy evening tonight.  A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for much of Acadiana through 10pm, but I think our greatest threat this evening will be heavy rainfall.  Look for localized street flooding especially from Lafayette, Vermilion, St Martin, Iberia and St Mary Parishes tonight.  Most areas will see 1-3 inches of rain, but isolated areas of up to 5 inches will be possible, especially in Vermilion, Iberia and St Mary Parishes.  Activity will begin to end from west to east during the 200am to 600am time frame.  Keep it tuned to KATC for the latest…we’ll be baby-sitting the radar! 

Tomorrow will bring cooler temperatures with drier conditions.  I’m still cautiously optimistic for some limited sunshine tomorrow afternoon.  The next weather system will sling clouds back into the area by Saturday afternoon with chilly rains likely Saturday night into Sunday morning.  The precipitation should end Sunday evening.  Christmas day will start out partly cloudy and cool, but there is still uncertainty with the next upper disturbance that follows Monday evening.  There might be some very light precipitation developing Monday evening, but although it will be too warm at the surface, there is a slight chance of non-accumulating wintry precipitation.  I wouldn’t get too excited about this as the risk of precipitation will be 20% or less, and I’m really sticking my neck out on this, so blame Perillo if we don’t see anything…but it’s still worthy of mention.  We’ll see what future model runs bring.  Nothing like blurring the line between “wish-casting” and forecasting but hey it’s Christmas!