KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

The dreary skies will stay with us through Thursday evening with occasional periods of rain likely tonight and tomorrow.  Drier but not necessarily clear conditions will return Thursday night into Friday.  The models appear to at least keep some high clouds in the area Friday, so at best we’ll call it partly sunny. Another upper disturbance will roll in Saturday bringing more cloud cover and a few showers, but most of the weather with this next system will be confined to the Gulf of Mexico, where it continues to be miserable for our offshore workers.  Colder, drier, more stable air with fair skies are anticipated Sunday through Tuesday.  Temperatures during this time frame are quite tricky to forecast as there will be plenty of arctic air poised just to our north and east.  Right now the models think we may just get clipped by the cold air so we’ll keep temperatures about 10-15 degree below normal for Sunday through Tuesday.  Unfortunately, our cloudy, wet and cool pattern will resume late next week and will probably carry through the second week of the month

We are up and running again after some network issues earlier today…unfortunately the 8 day forecast that was posted Tuesday was a default image dating back to June…wishful thinking!  Sorry about any inconvenience and thanks to the dozens of folks that emailed to let me know something was awry. We know you’re checking on us! 

Expect more clouds today as they will also thicken this afternoon.  Some patchy rain will be possible but rain chances should stay on the relatively low side.  Of greater interest continues to be the next low that will throw moisture from the Gulf our way by Thursday.  Guidance today backed off from a low pressure system moving inland across Acadiana and has trended to development farther offshore and to the east.  Therefore, the extreme southeastern part of the state should see the strongest storms and heaviest rains. Interestingly enough, the models this evening really knocked down the rain totals…but in an El Nino year it’s advisable to stay beefy with the rain chances and amounts.  Temperatures will hold in the 40s through Wednesday night and then will rise into the 50s on Thursday.  Friday should bring partly cloudy with mild temperatures, while the weekend is looking significantly cooler by Sunday.  At least it is looking dry (fingers crossed) for a good 5 days after Thursday. 

A viewer emailed a cool link to the Cloud Appreciation Society.  There is a great page on punch hole, or fallstreak cloud formations.  Keep looking at the skies!  

Nope, it’s not an early April Fool’s Day joke… we are having technical issues with our web-made weather graphics at this time.  Some maps will contain inaccurate data.

All animated weather maps (including Power Doppler 3000) are currently functional.

Thanks for your patience and we apologize for the inconvenience.

(Alternative local forecast available on KATC’s mobile website, katc.mobi)

Jon L.
KATC.com Webmaster

“Hole Punch Clouds” were seen across much of Acadiana’s sky this afternoon.  Thanks to many viewers I received some great shots of holes and lines punched through the cirro-form cloud deck that was located at 23,000ft earlier today.  The satellite imagery really showed numerous hole punches across the region all the way back through Texas spanning into Arkansas too.  I had to play forensic meteorologist this afternoon to determine exactly how these formations were induced.  I have seen the phenomenon before, but had never seen it show up so dramatically on the satellite shots too.  The NWS in Pensacola has a nice description of similar cloud formations that were observed in 2003.  From there I looked at today’s upper air sounding that showed our cirro-form cloud deck at 23,000ft.  Just below that deck was super dry air.  Temperatures at this level were in the minus 25-30 degree range.  The satellite imagery indicated that most of the formations originated in Texas and were carried in the winds aloft while the formations broadened.  Basically jet aircraft that crossed this deck, and most probably descending craft, initiated perturbations in the atmosphere that allowed a “supercooling” of the air parcel that was dragged downward by the aircraft.  As supercooling occurred, ice crystals formed and while the ice crystals formed, evaporation surrounding the ice crystals produced the circular pattern.  In some spots you could see the cirrus ice crystals in the center of the circles, while other circles were void of any cirrus crystals.  Also, noted on the 18:15 gmt imagery (12:15pm our time) you can clearly see circles in Evangeline, Allen and moving into Lafayette parishes.  While at 20:01 gmt imagery (2:01pm) you can see numerous holes to the north and also lines where aircraft spent longer time in and near the cloud deck at 23,000ft.  Cool stuff! 

Weather wise, expect plenty of light to moderate rain tomorrow, a break on Wednesday, and more rain and thunderstorms likely for Thursday.  The Thursday weather system will likely be more of a trouble-maker with heavier rains (better than 2 inches) and a slight risk of severe weather possible.  At least the weekend is looking cool and dry!  

Just in time for the end of the weekend the sun makes a comeback. A cool area of high pressure is bringing the pleasant conditions but temperatures are a little below normal. Tonight, temperatures will drop below freezing for about two hours so take care of pets and plants, but you should not have to worry about pipes. Tomorrow the high pressure moves east and we will get a weak return flow of winds from the southeast. Clouds will develop west to east tomorrow evening and night before the next low pressure moves out of the Gulf. At the same time, a weak cold front from the north will be moving across the state. The two systems together will produce widespread rain on Tuesday with a few thunderstorms. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected Wednesday but we will still have a chance of rain as a result of weak upper level disturbances. We should be all clear by next weekend.

Enjoy your week!

Kari Hall

Our Saturday will be a wet one while Sunday will be a blustery one.  A low pressure system developing in the Gulf Saturday will produce widespread rain and a few embedded thunderstorms.  Coastal parishes in Acadiana will see the heaviest rains, about 1.5-2 inches, while rain tallies will be closer to an inch or inch and half along the 1-10 parishes.  Farther north rain totals should be less.   But as always, there will probably a few isolated areas that see more than 2 inches of rain, and if I were going on the latest guidance I would favor St Mary Parish.  Fortunately this system will be a quick one with all the precipitation expected to end by 5:00pm, or sooner.  Also, I’m not expecting any organized severe weather however, closer to the coast we should see some healthy storms that could cause some trouble.  In addition, I wouldn’t be surprised if a few embedded thunderstorms contain some hail, but right now the Storm Prediction Center thinks the real nasty stuff will stay well offshore. 

Colder air will spill into the region with a light freeze possible for Monday morning.  Rain will likely be back into the forecast for Tuesday with plenty of clouds and the occasional showers likely for the rest of the week into the weekend.   Some colder air may arrive in about 9-10 days…but we have had not much skill beyond 5 days this winter so we’ll see what it looks like in a few more days.  Have a good weekend!  

Sunshine and smiles were the order of the day…and we should have more tomorrow, at least early in the day.  High clouds will invade by tomorrow evening with rain about 12 hours behind.  Timing and intensity of the next weather system is tricky since we are currently dealing with a “cut-off” upper low that’s currently in northern Mexico.  Based on the model guidance today I would say that most of the rain will fall during the morning into the early afternoon hours.  Although this system should be a quick-mover, it could still put down an inch or two of water; I’ll have a much better feel for that tomorrow.  There may be some embedded thunderstorms with this system, especially along the coastal parishes.  But right now I’m not anticipating any severe weather. 

Windy and colder conditions will move in for Sunday with dry conditions persisting into Monday.  It looks like we’ll probably see a resumption of an active subtropical jet mid-next week into the following weekend, so look for above normal rains through the first week of February.  There are hints of some cold air lurking to the north moving into the second week of February, but we’ll wait and see if there is any model run consistency on this feature.  Enjoy the sunshine while you can!

When will the sun come out?  That’s the question I’ve been getting hammered with no matter where I go or who I talk to.  The answer remains tomorrow!  An upper trough will disrupt the active sub-tropical jet giving us drier conditions for a day or two.  Unfortunately an upper low to the west will make its move by this weekend bringing another round of rain, perhaps more than an inch, for Saturday.  So enjoy what sun we get tomorrow and Friday.  By late Friday afternoon the clouds should return.  Temperatures will stay cool into the weekend with colder conditions likely Sunday into early next week.

We may have a couple of light freezes early next week, but I do not see any major arctic air masses threatening us through the first week for February.  If we do not see a change in the long range pattern over the next few days, I would be willing to bet that we won’t get any colder than the weather we saw in early December…that may just have been our winter! 

Last night on the 10pm show I talked about S.A.D. or Seasonal Affective Disorder.  Although this usually affects folks that live in more northern climates, I would think that the weather pattern over Acadiana over the last couple of weeks has gotten a lot of us slightly depressed.   I did some research in college in the early 80s on bio- and psycho responses to weather patterns, and at that time there was very little work done in this area…it’s come a long way since then.   Fortunately we know that sunshine is coming, and it’s been on backorder!

The skies stay gray and the radar painted green as we remain locked in our active sub-tropical jet stream pattern with overcast conditions with occasional periods of rain likely through tomorrow afternoon.  By tomorrow evening drier and more stable air, at least at low and mid-levels, will translate to an end of the significant precipitation.  High pressure will move in at the surface and aloft for a couple of days with mostly sunny and cool conditions anticipated for Thursday and Friday.  Another disturbance should be getting here for the weekend with a resumption of the current pattern likely to persist into next week. 

The long range outlook for the Climate Prediction Center keeps us on the wet side through March with a gradual segue away from this El Nino pattern by early summer.  That could mean a resumption of the active hurricane cycle that we got a break from last year.  In addition, the long-lead outlooks from the CPC indicate a signal for above normal temperatures this summer…sounds good now, but by July we’ll be wishing for the cloudy, cool and wet weather that we have been enduring of late!

I’m back from the American Meteorological Society (AMS) meeting in cold and occasionally icy San Antonio.  This is a conference that professional broadcast meteorologists attend.  This year the broadcast folks had the opportunity to visit with other AMS sanctioned groups that gave us additional insight into the science of weather, forecasting, technology and current hot topics such as global warming.  In addition to getting the latest from other weathercasters from around the country and the world for that matter, it was quite interesting sitting in on the more hard-core weather presentations, particularly the climate group. 

The global warming debate is no longer considered a debate amongst most climatologists, but there continues to be a number of meteorologists that argue about the processes/trends that we are observing, and the forecast for the future…I am not an expert on this subject and I will be politically correct in this blog, but I have to comment that it appears politics itself has become one of the driving forces within the science community.  I also find it very interesting that billions and billions of dollars will be spent on greenhouse gas reduction in the years to come, but we as a weather community cannot tell you how much it will help, and whether we will be able to make a significant impact on the ongoing warming trend.  Certainly we need to be a better steward to the environment.  Pragmatically, I’m still waiting to hear from folks who will be telling us how we may need to adapt as a species to a warmer world…I’ll stop now. 

Weather-wise, an “El Nino” enhanced sub-tropical jet stream will continue to rule the roost over the next several days with overcast skies and sub-normal temperatures to continue.  Our on and off rain pattern will also continue with enhanced rain chances likely by Wednesday. Drier conditions and some sun are expected for Thursday and Friday, sub-tropical jet permitting!