KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Al Gore returned to Washington today to testify about his perspective on global warming.  Unfortunately partisan politics was the play of the day and I’ll stay away from being a political pundit.  I did want to briefly talk about CO2 and its role in global climate change.  I am not a greenhouse gas expert, but this the way I understand the issues…  Carbon dioxide has increased dramatically in our atmosphere over the last 100 years to unprecedented levels.  Scientists believe that there is a direct relationship with our global warming trend and the increase in CO2.  There is a strong consensus within the IPCC that there is about a 90% chance that both the CO2 increase and current warming trend are anthropogenic (directly attributed to our industrial civilization).  Anthropogenists believe that we are heading for disaster and some argue that it will happen in the next 100 years.  Meting ice caps, sea level rise, severe hurricanes and polar bear population decrease are among the numerous current events that are tagged directly to global warming.  The question of our time is how CO2 and the current warming trend will affect our planet in the future.  This is where the divisiveness begins in the science community.  In addition, other greenhouse gases such as water vapor (the most prevalent greenhouse gas), ozone, etc and the direct effect on our global circulation are not fully understood as well.  There are two different ways to look at this issue from a scientific point of view.  There are the global climate modelers that are forecasting the planet’s future with the most complex computer models and the most powerful computers in the world.  Then there are scientists that approach the issue empirically, looking back at tree rings, ice cores etc. and infer what will happen in the future based on historical data and current trends.  Remember this is science.  The nature of science is to question, hypothesize and perhaps model or prove your position.  Today we are hearing that the debate is over, period.  The consensus is that we are indeed heading for big trouble based on both scientific approaches.  But there continues to be a minority of scientists that question many of the issues that are presented to us today.  The relationships and assumptions that the global climate modelers and their computer models make are questioned by this minority.  Then there are the scientists (and they are also a minority group) that argue that the water vapor cycle ultimately will dictate where our climate will go.  There is no debate that going carbon neutral is going to cost big.  We’re talking carbon scrubbing at coal and oil-fired plants, more nuclear power plants, and increases in wind, solar and hydroelectric power generation, and different fuel sources for transportation.  Estimates are that the US consumer will pay more than double for your power, not including inflation costs.  This whole issue has been interesting from a “big business” point of view too. One camp is saying that making an impact on CO2 will be too costly and will devastate the economy, while the other camp sees this as opportunity to develop a “green” economy.  So here we have it: money, politics and possibly the most massive global undertaking ahead…it will be interesting!

Persistence remains the forecast with a subtle warming trend likely into the weekend.  Look for more early morning cloudiness followed by mostly sunny skies during the afternoon hours over the next several days.  We should see a brief breakdown in the ridge of high pressure for Sunday into Monday, and that should open the door for at least scattered showers and storms during that time.  After Monday it looks like our seasonably warm temperatures will continue.  Interestingly enough, I do not see a significant cool front through the first week of April. 

I finally had the opportunity to see “An Inconvenient Truth”, the Al Gore documentary.  I did like the movie overall as the picture gives those not up to speed a sense of where we are right now and how global population and consumerism are going to be bigger issues in the future…in our lifetime.  Whether you feel the global warming debate is “over” or you’re a skeptic about the science, I would recommend the movie as the cinematography and graphics were great.  I am no global climate change expert, nor am I a movie critic, but I felt that the movie was self-serving and spent too much time telling me how Mr. Gore has worked tirelessly to get his message out.  The movie opens with Mayor Ray Nagin crying for help a few days after Katrina and pretty much indicates that Katrina happened and the death and destruction that followed were directly attributed to global warming.  From all of the science that I have researched, there is no direct correlation to our current warming trend and the increase in tropical activity of the last decade, never less a single storm.  We understand the oceanic circulation belt goes through enhancing cycles, and it has been well-documented that we are in the midst of this upswing.  Now one could infer global warming equals hotter oceans and thus more hurricanes and an increase in their intensities, but the science is not even close to giving us an answer to such a complex question.  So for me, credibility of the picture comes into question with repeated Katrina references.  I think we are a society that just feels the need to assign blame, whether it’s El Nino or global warming, the truth is that weather happens, period.  Weather changes everyday and climate can change in a lifetime.  The question presented to all of us, is where are we going?   Hopefully this movie will get more people to be more ecologically responsible and aware.  We all have to get off the mindset of being a “throw-away” society with inexhaustible natural resources.  I will stay away from how the movie treats the CO2 processes and its influence on our atmosphere as that’s another can of worms.  I’ll talk more about this tomorrow.

Spring will begin officially tomorrow evening at 7:07pm but we have been there weather-wise over the last several weeks.  This week is looking spring-like indeed with daytime highs approaching the upper 70s to lower 80s with little change anticipated temperature-wise into the weekend.  A few isolated showers may be possible through Saturday but chance of getting wet on any given day will be near 10%.  We could see more conducive conditions for showers late in the weekend or early next week, but I’m not over enthusiastic with the rain chances quite yet.  Meanwhile expect a fair bit of early morning cloudiness and patchy light fog over the next several days with skies becoming partly sunny during the afternoon.