KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

We will begin the month with slightly above average temperature and pleasant conditions. Expect only a slight chance of afternoon showers each day as drier air moves in through the work week. The cold front that moved through Friday helped a little but humidity made a quick return Saturday and even a few showers developed. We are just on the outer edge of the ridge which is over the northeast which would have kept us drier if it was a little closer.

By the end of the week we will be watching a possible sub-tropical low moving across the Gulf. The low will push moisture our way by the weekend. So right now next weekend looks to be wet but we will just have to wait and see how it plays out.

Enjoy your week!

Good news coming from the Weather Lab today as drier less humid weather remains on the forecast through mid-next week.  It looks perfect for the Sugar Cane Festival in New Iberia this weekend!  A weak wave of moisture may cross the area Sunday just brushing the coastal parishes and that may spark off an isolated shower near the coast but rain chances should be no higher than 10%.  Otherwise expect mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 through next Wednesday while overnight lows reside in the upper 60s moderating into the lower 70s for late next week.  A return flow from the Gulf may occur later next week allowing for a few scattered showers by Thursday or Friday.  In the tropics Lorenzo has dissipated in Mexico with plenty of tropical moisture trying to sneak northward toward South Texas.  Tropical storm Karen remains a sheared system and may become a depression by the end of the weekend.  The long range path of this system may take a more westerly turn beyond 3-4 days, if it survives, but a few of the models hold onto this feature and re-strengthen it possibly approaching the Bahamas so we’ll continue to monitor it.  Farther to the east, a tropical depression has formed south of the Cape Verde Islands.  This system will be exposed to a relatively hostile environment while a turn into the open Atlantic is expected.  The models have been all over the place over the last few days with possible development of disturbed weather in the NW Caribbean, or the Bahamas, or near Florida for early next week, but it appears that the Gulf threat, if any, should be low.  In fact, looking at the long range forecasts the jet stream westerlies should begin to develop across the SW US over the next week to 10 days and then spread eastward across the Northwestern Gulf.  This scenario usually shuts out tropical activity near us, and eventually brings a significant front through the area.  So if we do not see tropical activity in the Gulf through next weekend, the risk of something big in our part of the Gulf will be greatly diminished.

We are still on track for a very nice weekend with more comfortable humidity and slightly cooler nights.  The frontal boundary marking the drier air will cross tonight allowing for a few showers, but high pressure will build in quickly yielding mostly sunny skies tomorrow, the weekend into early next week.  The models continue to advertise that some sort of disturbance will develop along this frontal trough as a tropical surge of moisture moves toward the Gulf this weekend into early next week.  It is still unclear how this situation will evolve and where any potential system will go, but I would expect some sort of tropical system or tropical hybrid to develop in the Southeastern Gulf/NW Caribbean or over Florida and the Bahamas by early next week. It should be noted that the first week of October is no stranger to tropical storms and hurricanes in the Gulf with Hilda and Lili striking Acadiana on October 3 in 1964 and 2002 respectively.  TD #13 showed a nice bursting pattern on the satellite imagery this afternoon and shortly thereafter hurricane hunters found tropical storm strength winds.  Lorenzo is very close to becoming a hurricane and may become one prior to landfall near Veracruz tomorrow.  Farther to the east, Tropical Storm Karen will fight a fairly hostile environment over the next few days, but if it survives the weekend there may be a westward turn with this system so we’ll continue to monitor it, especially for our East Coast and Bermuda friends.  

Great weather will be moving in late Thursday into Friday.  A nice cool front will pass by early this evening.  There could be some thunderstorms around the area late this afternoon and into the evening as the front gets closer, but then fresh breezes should move in behind the front bringing in lower humidities for Friday and the weekend.  Those lower humidities will dry the air mass out enough to allow overnight lows to drop back into the 60s this weekend.  Daytime highs will remain in the mid to upper 80s with full sunshine.

 Still watching Tropical Depression #13 in the Bay of Campeche.  It still has a chance of becoming Lorenzo in the short term forecast.  Then it will move inland sometime Friday.  Karen is approaching hurricane status.  It is supposed to stay away from land.  Other disturbances near Florida, and Puerto Rico remain disorganized.  Tropical Waves coming off the African coast look pretty impressive.  Over the next few weeks as we get into October , we should see the Eastern Atlantic quiet down, with most of the disturbances developing in the Western Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf.  Usually after October is over the number of tropical systems developing will drop off.  Usually we only have on average 1 named storm during the month of November.

Tropical Storm Karen continues to hold its own over the central Atlantic Ocean.  Winds are now up to 50mph with higher gusts.  It still appears that Karen will drift over the Atlantic with no threat to land.  Karen is forecast now to become a Hurricane by Friday, then weaken back to a tropical storm over the weekend.

 The disturbance 94L over the Bay of Campeche became Tropical Depression #13 yesterday afternoon.  Recon aircraft were out there and found a closed circulation with thunderstorms developing around the center.  There still is a high amount of shear in the area, but slow development is expected.  13 may become a tropical storm later today or tomorrow as it meanders toward the Mexican coastline.  The latest forecast takes 13 inland after 48 hours.

The disturbance 97L near Puerto Rico is looking better today.  97L brought a lot of rain and lightning for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico last night, but not much wind.  Surface pressures are steady for now, and as the upper level conditions become more favorable, another depression might form.  Latest guidance for 97L brings it toward the Bahamas and eventually near the southern tip of Florida.  A deep trough over the U.S. might pick it up and turn it northward along the east coast before it has a chance to move into the Gulf.  One model brings 97L to hurricane status 5 days from now. 

A new disturbance 98L is being monitored near the Florida Keys.  This is a broad upper level low, with a weak surface circulation near Key West.  As our front over the midwest pushes eastward, the track of 98L should pull more toward the northeast into the Atlantic and then rapidly moving toward Bermuda after day 5.  Models keep this system fairly weak over the time period.  The model showing the strongest development only brings it to a weak tropical storm three days from now.

Our weather will be improving over the next couple of days.  We could experience more fog during the early morning hours, but as drier air begins to move in Friday and Saturday the fog problems should be solved.  Also with lower humidities over the weekend, we might get our night time lows back into the mid 60s.  Looking ahead into the first few days of October, it looks like humidity and near summerlike temps will return.  There are hints of a significant cold front rolling in by the end of the second full week of October.  Hopefully it will come sooner.

Hurricane Hunters found a closed circulation with the disturbance in the extreme southwestern Gulf, the Bay of Campeche, and thus we have the thirteenth tropical depression of the season.  This system will likely stay in that part of Gulf over the next several days as higher pressure advances in from the north keeping our part of the Gulf safe from the system to the south.  TD 13 could become a tropical storm over the next day or so, if so the name will be Lorenzo.  This system should stay nearly stationary or drift southwestward over the next few days ultimately threatening parts of Mexico.  Meanwhile, more stable air will begin to shut down the tropical moisture plume across the region lowering the rain chances to 30% for tomorrow and Thursday.  Drier more comfortable air should move in for Friday and the weekend allowing for much more comfortable conditions, especially at night.  Elsewhere in the tropics, Tropical Storm Karen should remain an Atlantic system while another wave on its heels is showing some signs of organization.  Farther to the west an upper low and surface trough by Florida and a disturbance in the Eastern Caribbean remain disorganized.      

As one tropical storm dies out over the northern Atlantic, another forms over the mid-Atlantic.  Jerry which gained tropical storm strength this weekend continues to be absorbed by a trough over the cooler waters.  Jerry barely hung on as a minimal tropical storm for a day with winds only reaching 40mph. 

Meanwhile, in the central Atlantic one of our disturbances (96L) we talked about yesterday gained tropical depression strength Monday night, and today it was given a name as it gained tropical storm force winds.  Karen is the 11th named storm for the 2007 hurricane season.  Karen appears to be moving WNW at 15 mph.  The forecast takes it over the central Atlantic eventually curving it northward before it reaches the Virgin Islands.  It may reach hurricane strength over the 5 day period, but it will encounter lots of wind shear day 4 and 5, so if it makes it to hurricane status, it won’t last long. 

Our other disturbance (97L) in the Caribbean  is moving NW and spreading showers over Martinique and the rest of the Leeward Islands.  It isn’t showing any signs of development this morning and will continue to move NW eventually bringing rain to Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. 

In the Gulf of Mexico (94L) is still hanging in there.  There is a surface feature evident on the satellite imagery, and there are a considerable number of storms around that center.  Wind shear is high on the west side of the system, so organization is slow.  It still has a chance for development.  Most models bring it into Mexico or Texas, but a few are now keeping the system offshore for several days, bouncing around the Bay of Campeche.  Air Force Recon aircraft are on standby again today if needed.  Moisture from (94L) will continue to stream northward today bringing us more scattered rain, but dry air in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will slide in between the disturbance and Louisiana eventually cutting off the flow, lowering our rain chances as we head through the week.

Hurricane Season Count So Far…

11 Named Storms, 3 Hurricanes, 2 Major Hurricanes

Normal

10 Named Storms, 6 Hurricanes, 3 Major Hurricanes

Predicted

17 Named Storms, 9 Hurricanes, 5 Major Hurricanes  (May 31 Forecast)

15 Named Storms, 8 Hurricanes, 4 Major Hurricanes (August 3 Forecast)

The conduit of tropical moisture connecting to the Gulf and Caribbean will stay open at least for another 24 hours keeping Acadiana on the wet side through tomorrow evening.  High rain chances will gradually diminish as drier westerlies aloft and higher pressure banks in from the northeast for later in the week.  In the near-term, expect up to 1-2” of rain in most areas with the current pattern through Tuesday evening.  There is a weak area of low pressure attached to the tropical trough in the Southwestern Gulf but any development here will be limited and slow to occur.  The expected weather pattern later this week could keep disturbed weather going in the SW Gulf or the Bay of Campeche but right now this system does not pose a direct threat to our area at this time.  Other areas of disturbed weather are noted in the Eastern Caribbean and the Tropical Atlantic.  The system in the Atlantic looks most ready to go for development, but the system in the Eastern Caribbean could pose a threat to the SE US by the weekend if it develops.  We’re still in the height of tropical season so every system will conitnue to garner close scrutiny. 

Tropical moisture is being squeezed into the Acadiana area thanks to two big weather systems on each side of us and plenty of moisture rolling in from the Gulf.  Piece #1 is a ridge of high pressure covering much of the eastern half of the nation.  Piece #2 is an upper level low currently over Texas.  This is the same upper level low responsible for keeping T.D. #10 weak until it moved inland Friday evening.  Piece #3 is a broad area of low pressure (94L) is centered over the southern Gulf of Mexico near the Yucatan.  This low might have some potential for Tropical Development over the next couple of days, as it is looking more impressive on the visible sats this morning.  Hurricane hunters are on stand by to investigate if needed.  The surface low should continue on a track toward the Texas/Mexico coast.  The result, occasional rain, some thunder, a few heavy downpours, and about 1″ accumulation on average each day through Thursday.  Heavier amounts might fall near the coast and especially into the lower parts of St. Mary, Terrebonne, and Lafourche Parishes.  Down the road as the upper level low fizzles out, a cold front will push southward from the mid part of the U.S. allowing drier air to move in for the weekend.  We might see a strong line of storms with the front Thursday, clearing Friday and dry and pleasant weather for Saturday and Sunday.  Lower humidities might get our temps back in the mid 60s over the weekend.

 Tropical weather is active, although nothing threatening Acadiana in the near future.  Tropical Storm Jerry should wind down over the northern Atlantic today and tomorrow.  A disturbance near Barbados (97L) will move westward into the Caribbean and has a pretty good chance for development.  Another disturbance (96L) about half way across the Atlantic looks the most promising this morning.  Long range models bring it within 400 miles of the Lesser Antilles, then a northward motion into the open Atlantic.  Like I said, nothing threatening the area in the near future, but I’ll keep my eye on the Barbados thing later this week if it develops.

For the last day of summer, the remant low of tropical depression #10 brought scattered rain. We really dodged a bullet since it moved inland a lot sooner than expected. It didn’t have a chance to draw in deep tropical moisture and now it continues to weaken. As the low moves north around an area of high pressure. The high will also help draw in a low in the Carribean which will increase our rain chances starting late Sunday night into Monday morning. Hurricane hunters will fly into the low east of the Yucatan to see if there is a surface low but at this time it is not expected to develop because upper level winds are highly unfavorable. We will be watching that and three other low pressures to see if one of them becomes tropical depression #11. It’s becoming very active even though there aren’t any strong storms right now.

Rain chances will stay relatively high until the low moving out of the Gulf moves north and a front brings drier air late in the week.

Enjoy the first day of Fall!