KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Our weather will continue to be out of this world this weekend with plenty of unabated sunshine, mild afternoons and cool nights.  North-northeast winds will increase this weekend as another ridge of high pressure builds in from the north.  It looks like our fantastic weather will last through mid-week with some shallow moisture, mainly clouds and morning fog moving in for Wednesday through next Saturday.  A few sprinkles may be possible later next week, but dynamics for a significant weather system should hold off until the 8-10 day time frame.  Meanwhile in the tropics, a low pressure system southwest of Puerto Rico may slowly get more organized as it moves in a west-southwesterly direction over the next few days.  This system shouldn’t pose a major threat to the Gulf of Mexico, however the pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and persistent low pressure in the Northwest Caribbean may allow for moderate northeast winds and choppy to rough seas, especially in deep water areas next week.  If something were to get going in the Caribbean it would move westerly then northwesterly toward the southeast Gulf but then should get caught up in the westerlies and get pushed toward Florida and/or the Bahamas next week.  Enjoy the beautiful weekend weather!

Our beautiful weather continues!  And it should be great for viewing the International Space Station tonight at 7:07pm.  What makes it interesting tonight is that the shuttle will be docked to the station so it should be the brightest that we have ever seen it and it will be the brightest object in the sky at the time it crosses nearly overhead.  The space station will be approaching the area from the northwest at 7:07pm moving overhead heading toward the south-southeast and should be visible for nearly 5 minutes.  It will appear as a fast moving bright star…just remember when you see it the station is moving at over 17,000mph roughly 300 miles above the earth and there are 10 people on board.  What a way to travel!

We’ll continue to see in and out cloud cover and cool conditions over the next 24-36 hours with more sunshine and milder temperatures into the weekend.  The upper low that has meandered today across Mississippi will be drifting back to the west-northwest tomorrow and will eventually lift to the north for Friday.  Forecasting the cloud cover and temperatures will be tricky with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s if you see mostly cloudy skies but highs will reach the lower 70s where the sun shines back to the west.  Most of us should be in the mid-upper 60s though.  So expect more cloudy intervals through tomorrow with lots of sunshine likely for Friday into the weekend.  The temperatures will moderate back into the lower 70s for Friday and the mid-70s for the weekend.  It should stay seasonably mild and dry through Tuesday, but today’s computer models are beginning to hint at some instability and a few showers possible by Thursday, perhaps as early as Wednesday.  Right now Halloween looks partly cloudy and mild with temperatures in the 60s for trick or treat times.

We are well on our way to much cooler conditions as we segue from July-like temperatures and humidity to January like numbers.  A strong upper low will get cut-off from the jet stream somewhere over the Arklatex keeping us in an anomalously cool pattern through the rest of the week.  Wrap around moisture in the form of mostly cloud cover will stay with us through Wednesday.  In the near term the moderate to heavy rains over the southeastern part of Acadiana will be slow to end tonight.  The severe weather threat mostly missed the area but at press time a tornado watch was in effect for Southeast Louisiana through southern Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida panhandle.  Skies will be mostly cloudy early tomorrow with intervals of sunshine expected for tomorrow afternoon.  More clouds could move into the area again for tomorrow night and parts of Wednesday with more sunshine and eventually moderating temperatures anticipated for later in the week and into the weekend.  In the term, expect highs in the 60s over the next few days with lows dropping into the mid-upper 40s.  

Sunday will be a transition day back to higher humidity and clouds by late in the day as we get set for an active weather pattern for early next week.  A strong cold front will bring an excellent chance of showers and storms on Monday.  Upper level dynamics could favor the risk of severe weather as a warm front races to the north from the Gulf late Sunday night into early Monday, and then again with a potential squall line that will develop ahead of the front Monday.  The severe weather parameters should be highest to our north and east, but this will be a vigorous system so an isolated tornado threat may be possible with the warm front and then the threat of damaging winds with a strong mid-level jet possible with any squall line that gets going.  At the very least, plan on high rain chances for Monday with lingering showers behind the sharp front that will move through the area Monday night.  Blustery north to northwest winds and some wrap around moisture and scattered showers will be possible Tuesday with the upper pattern favoring well below normal temperatures for the rest of next week.  In fact it will almost feel winter-like for Tuesday and Wednesday nights…sounds like a great week for making some gumbo!

Simply gorgeous weather will be with us over the next 36 hours with comfortable humidity and near seasonal temperatures expected through Sunday morning.  A return flow from the Gulf will commence on Sunday with partly cloudy skies, higher humidity and a few showers possible by Sunday evening.  Impressive dynamics will take shape ahead of a strong cold front on Monday yielding an excellent chance of rain and thunderstorms Monday with lingering showers possible into Tuesday. There may be a severe weather threat as well on Monday depending on the jet stream orientation and the quality of instability.  The models are having a hard time resolving the large scale features across the lower 48 next week with a strong upper low getting cut-off from the polar jet.  So the forecast beyond day 3 or 4 will stay up in the air, but I do look for significantly cooler conditions to move in for mid-next week.  Interestingly enough, both the 12z and 18z long range GFS models are indicating a significant tropical system approaching/developing in the southern Gulf by the first weekend of November.  Since the models are having such a hard time with next week, I wouldn’t put much stock in the forecast beyond…at least for right now!  Have a good weekend!

Deep tropical moisture advanced into the region today.  Strong storms moved rapidly (near 45mph) from the southwest to the northeast as the vigorous storm system in the Plains continues to produce severe weather this evening.  No severe weather was reported locally other than a tornado near Jasper Texas that knocked down some trees.  Muggy conditions will stay with us tonight through tomorrow with scattered lingering showers possible through early tomorrow afternoon.  Soupy overnight lows with dew points and lows in the mid-70s can be expected tonight, and depending on the amount of sun we see tomorrow, the mercury could hit 90 degrees in spite of breezy SW winds and some cloud cover.  Drier air will move in for late tomorrow afternoon with much more comfortable conditions expected and sunny skies for Friday and Saturday.  Another vigorous frontal trough will arrive late Sunday into early Monday bringing another round of storms and possibly severe weather.  It’s looking significantly cooler at least for a few days mid-next week.   

Although today didn’t go nearly as expected, and the computer models have been out to lunch, we’ll get back up on the bicycle and give it another try for tomorrow!  Tropical moisture is forecast by all the computer models to increase dramatically tomorrow while upper level dynamics will become favorable for showers and thunderstorms.  If the models are close to being right we’ll see at least a 60% chance of getting wet.  Storms in the Gulf associated with the area of low pressure in the west-central Gulf intercepted the moisture across the region today and tomorrow we might see more of the same.  Meanwhile upper level winds strengthen tomorrow while at least some of the moisture in the Gulf works its way inland, I would expect the wettest conditions to be over Eastern Louisiana. Computer model atmospheric profile forecasts do indicate increasing instability so strong storms tomorrow would not be out of the question.  On a larger scale, a large trough and low pressure system will be rolling out of the Rockies into the plains states tomorrow which should entrain the moisture northward from the Gulf.  This will probably be a big severe weather-maker across the plains tomorrow and Thursday.   Drier, more stable air should move in locally for Thursday with just a slight chance of showers possible in the morning, and possibly again overnight Thursday into very early Friday morning.  Southwest winds on Thursday could translate to a 90 degree day while slightly cooler conditions could move in for Friday and Saturday. Another weather system will approach for Sunday drawing in more moisture from the Gulf yielding a chance of scattered showers and storms late Sunday into early Monday with much cooler conditions possible by Tuesday of next week…interestingly enough the long range models are completely opposite with the large scale weather factors for next week so the forecast is liable to change…it always is interesting to see how the computer models wrestle with summer to fall scenarios.  So far this season, they have been doing poorly.   

After a simply gorgeous weekend our weather continues to transition to a warmer and more humid clime.  There will be a couple of weather features that Acadiana will be sandwiched between: a frontal trough in Eastern Texas, and a weak area of low pressure in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The trough to the west is expected to slowly weaken while lifting to the northward over the next few days.  This trough has produced numerous showers and storms just to the west of Acadiana in Eastern Texas, with activity training into western and Central Louisiana and points to the northeast.  A trough over the western states will likely strengthen lifting this feature to the north while deeper tropical moisture surges from the Gulf over the next few days.  Meanwhile the low pressure system in the Gulf will drift northwestward through tomorrow and then northward early Wednesday making a turn to the east by late Wednesday.  We are not expecting any significant tropical development with this system but it should help to usher a decent slug of tropical moisture into the region for tomorrow and Wednesday.  It is not clear however on how much moisture we will see in Acadiana as this system will encounter upper westerlies that should drag the bulk of the deepest moisture just to our east.  Nonetheless we’ll go with a few showers overnight and tomorrow with a better chance of scattered showers and storms on Wednesday.  Lingering showers will be possible again early Thursday until slightly drier more subsident air arrives for late Thursday.  Summer-like temperatures will stay with us through the weekend with highs in the upper 80s while lows stay closer to 70.  A significant front is shaping up for next Monday with decidedly cooler, possibly the coolest air of the season, to arrive for Tuesday of next week.

Our weather will stay spectacular through the weekend with tons of sun, comfortable humidity and cool nights.  A return flow from the Gulf will initiate Sunday ushering in some clouds for Sunday afternoon with temperatures warming back into the mid-upper 80s.  Much of next week will be partly cloudy with warm, almost summer-like temperatures and higher humidity and low temperatures.  Moisture will return from the Gulf, and it may be tropical in nature, but the return of “quality” moisture remains in question.  At the same time a series of disturbances will be approaching from the west which could set of scattered showers as early as late Monday, into Tuesday and possibly Wednesday.  Interestingly enough a number of the models are keeping pressures on the low side across the NW Caribbean this weekend with a possible low moving into the Bay of Campeche or Southern Gulf for early next week.  Any disturbance here will likely get drawn northward and then eastward as the system encounters the upper level westerlies.  While tropical development is possible, the window of opportunity would be quite small for anything significant to get going.  Meanwhile enjoy the beautiful weekend weather!