KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

We are on track this weekend for mild conditions…great weather for putting up all those outdoor holiday decorations!  A big storm system in the west is producing anywhere from 6 months to a year’s worth of precipitation across the southern California and Arizona deserts and plenty of heavy snow in the Southern Rockies to the plains states.  For us it will mean warmer than normal conditions across Acadiana until Sunday night when this system drags a cold front across the area late Sunday night.  Moisture and dynamics continue to look more and more limited so there should be a less than 20% chance of getting wet on Sunday and about a 40% chance of showers, maybe a storm late Sunday night.  Cool and dry conditions will return early next week only to moderate by mid-week with perhaps a better chance of rain and storms for the following weekend.  Have a great weekend!

Another front will be crossing the area tomorrow morning with slightly cooler conditions for just tomorrow.  Moisture will be quite limited with this front so significant rain chances are not expected.  Some light fog and clouds will move in late tonight and for early tomorrow morning, but the front should sweep any fog out of here by daybreak while lingering clouds should scour out by midday with mostly sunny skies anticipated for tomorrow afternoon.  Highs tomorrow should be in the mid-upper 60s while we should top out near 70 on Friday under fair skies.  A storm system developing in the Plains this weekend will likely engender a nice warm-up with breezy conditions for Saturday with highs reaching the mid-70s.  We could push the lower 80s on Sunday ahead of a moderate cold front that will cross the region by late Sunday.  Showers and storms will be possible late Sunday into Sunday night but right now it looks like most of the strong dynamics and the possibility of severe weather should stay to our north.  Cooler conditions should return for early next week. 

I talked about Philip Klotzbach’s and Dr. Gray’s hurricane forecasts tonight referring to their overestimation of the Atlantic Basin activity.  While it turned out to be a near “normal” season the forecast group has gotten hammered hard by the press that generally misuses and doesn’t understand the complexity of the information.  As usual perception is reality and because the U.S. wasn’t struck by a bad storm the perception is that it wasn’t a bad season and that the long range forecasters were way off mark.  However, it wasn’t a good season for those in Central America and Mexico where two Category 5 storms struck, and in Hispaniola where a late season storm (Noel) was responsible for more the 150 fatalities due to flooding.  The overestimation by the Colorado State group and many others was likely due to the preponderance of upper level cold-core lows and their associated vertical wind shear that kept tropical systems short-lived and prohibited stronger development.  Why there were so many upper lows remains a mystery, but each and every year there are factors that are impossible to forecast or anticipate and although the past two years we have seen an overestimation of (and near normal) activity, we remain in an active decadal cycle that will continue for several more years.  While I’m not a long-range forecaster by trade I feel the need to defend a community (particularly Dr. Gray and Klotzbach) that have been calling for the very active years since the mid-90s and correctly predicted that between 1995 and 2010 we would likely see unprecedented hurricane damage in the U.S.  I came across this article from Dr. Pielke from the University of Colorado and it makes some very interesting points with regard to hurricane activity, perception and a global climate changing environment…check it out.        

As promised, this weekend was wet and gloomy, and yesterday in some spots quite stormy.  In addition to the 2-4” rainfall area-wide, there were numerous reports of high winds offshore and there was possibly a tornado late yesterday morning associated with a severe storm that ripped through coastal Vermilion and Iberia Parishes.  Doppler imagery certainly shows a mesocyclonic cell that was capable of producing a tornado and or up to 100mph winds.  Damage was reported around the Port of Iberia but fortunately the cell decreased in intensity as it advanced farther inland across more populated areas.  The rest of this week will bring seasonably cool weather with mostly sunny skies.  Another front will allow skies to cloud late Wednesday with a few sprinkles through Thursday morning.  We may see some light showers again late Friday into Saturday, but the chances of measurable rainfall should hold off until Sunday when a more dynamic front moves through the area.  Expect highs near 60 tomorrow and the mid-upper 60s for the rest of the week while overnight lows stay cool in the 40s and 50s.  We could see temperatures well into the 70s Sunday before another cool down for next week.

Most areas picked up on well over an inch and a half as a warm front slowly moved across the state. Sunday night a cold front will sweep through and another round of strong storms will develop. No severe weather has been reported except wind reports offshore. Flooding has been a major issue and is especially causing a lot of problems for one of the busiest travel weekends of the year. It’s better to wait until Monday to travel if possible. Monday will be sunny in the afternoon with breezy northerly winds and much cooler temperatures. Expect much better weather for outdoor activities through the week. High pressure will return giving us a chance to dry out. This weekend’s rain got us caught up to normal rainfall totals for the year, keeping us out of a decifit.

Enjoy your week!

It’s going to be a wet and stormy weekend as low pressure develops rapidly in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico tomorrow.  Fair and chilly conditions early tonight will yield to increased high cloudiness tomorrow.  Look for cloudy, breezy and cool conditions tomorrow with rain showers developing from the west to the east during the day.  Highest rain chances with embedded thunderstorms will likely Saturday night and into Sunday.  Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts remain robust with 2-4 inches likely by Sunday evening, with a few isolated areas possible receiving a few inches more.  So there will likely be the risk of some localized street flooding by Sunday. Depending on the path of the low there may be a severe threat for Saturday night into Sunday as well with the greatest risk likely along the coast and across SE Louisiana.  The best bet for the strongest storms would be for a round Saturday night and then with another round for Sunday afternoon.  Although pressures will not be that low with the low that develops, the pressure gradient will tighten a fair bit allowing northeast winds near 15-25mph inland and near 20-30kts or higher offshore.  Be careful out there if you have to travel this weekend, and as always, allow plenty of time to get to your destination.  

Nasty storms are possible this evening as the strong cold front we have been talking about crosses Acadiana between 10pm and 2am.  Some storms will be capable of producing gusty winds in excess of 50mph which may certainly be an issue for the well blow-out on I-10.  See our news section for the latest.  At press time a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was in effect for all of Acadiana with the exception of the coastal parishes through 11pm.  Hopefully the storms will weaken a little as they move on through, but I wouldn’t count on it at this point.  Meanwhile in addition to the gusty winds, storms may be capable of producing small hail, frequent cloud to ground lightning and locally  very heavy downpours.  Activity will end well before daybreak with breezy and much cooler conditions tomorrow.  Temperatures will likely get into the lower 50s by morning rising only into the mid-upper 50s tomorrow afternoon and then drop to near 40 tomorrow night.  Wind chills Friday morning will be in the lower 30s.  Cool conditions will persist on Friday as high clouds increase.  This weekend will likely be wet and storms with rain chances approaching 80-90% for both Saturday and Sunday.  Rain totals could approach 5 inches this weekend with the distinct possibility of severe weather especially for Sunday.  The system approaching this weekend could be quite volatile so stay tuned…

 We are still on track for another warm one tomorrow with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developing tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening.  The cold front will push through most of the region tomorrow evening giving Acadiana the best chance of rain between 600pm and midnight.  Skies should clear nicely for Thanksgiving with breezy and quite cool conditions likely.  Highs will be hard-pressed to make it out of the 50s Thursday and Friday with cool conditions likely into the weekend.  A big fall/winter storm will be developing late Friday with clouds increasing Friday followed by patchy light rain developing Friday night.  Rain and thunderstorms will be likely this weekend with the potential for some soaking, heavy rains and the possibility of severe storms, especially along the coastal parishes.  The wet and stormy weather should end for late Sunday just in time for back to work and school!   

Expect the weather roller coaster to be in full swing this week with very warm conditions over the next few days.  Like today, there will be a few isolated showers tomorrow but better rain chances will be likely for Wednesday afternoon and night as a moderately strong cool front approaches.  The best chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms will come Wednesday evening as the front crosses the region, but if you are traveling westward rain chances will be higher heading toward Houston and Dallas earlier in the day.  There may be some healthy storms with this front especially to the north so we’ll keep an eye on it.  Breezy and cooler conditions will be likely for Thanksgiving with clouds and a few lingering showers possible mainly early in the morning.  Partly sunny skies should return for Thanksgiving afternoon with plenty of high cloudiness and cool temperatures through Friday.  This weekend is looking quite dynamic with a low pressure system developing in the NW Gulf Saturday yielding a good chance of rain and embedded storms Saturday continuing Saturday night into Sunday. We could see some locally heavy rains and there may even be a severe weather threat this weekend so it may not be the best of travel weekends.

Sunday we can expect scattered rain off and on through the day as shortwaves or cold pockets of air aloft makes the atmosphere more unstable. Some shortwaves may be stronger than others and heavier rain or storms will be the result. Maybe we will be able to replenish some of the moisture as some areas could get up to two inches when all is said and done. By Monday rain chances will go down and it’s possible skies could clear in the afternoon. All through the week we will have scattered rain but a big cool down will make it just in time for Thanksgiving. And it still looks like it will be cloudy as moisture overrides the cool air. So Thanksgiving Day at this point looks to be chilly, windy, and cloudy.

Moderating temperatures, lots of clouds, and the chance of rain are on tap for this weekend and beyond as we head into an “unsettled” weather pattern that will likely continue through the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.  It won’t be as chilly tonight with temperatures bottoming out in the mid-upper 40s after midnight, with rising temperatures toward daybreak courtesy if southerly winds and increased cloud cover by morning.  This weekend will feature mostly cloudy skies with highs reaching the mid-70s tomorrow and lower 70s on Sunday.  A few sprinkles will be possible by tomorrow afternoon with a better chance of rain tomorrow night into Sunday.  Next week will feature warmer than normal temperatures, plenty of clouds and the chance of showers especially by Wednesday.  Cooler weather is still expected for Thanksgiving into the following weekend but it looks like there will be plenty of over-running clouds and the chance of rain for next weekend.  I have a feeling the forecast for next week will continue to evolve and change so check back with us frequently on the latest.  Have a great weekend!