KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

We have moved into a more unsettled period as yet another frontal boundary coupled with upper disturbances will yield scattered showers and some thunderstorms across Acadiana through Tuesday evening.  Rain chances should be increasing toward tomorrow morning with daytime heating contributing to the instability producing some healthy thunderstorms, especially across Central Louisiana for Tuesday afternoon.  The Storm Prediction Center does have the northern and western portions of Acadiana hatched in for a slight risk of severe storms.  The main threat will be gusty winds and hail.  So we’ll keep an eye on the activity just in case.  Drier more stable air will advance into the region for Wednesday with rain chances going down for mid-week.  Another frontal trough will approach late in the week with perhaps a healthy round of storms developing for Friday night.  Hopefully the weekend will bring slight drier and slightly cooler air with mostly sunny skies.

It’s been a while since we had a good soaking and for most of Sunday the storms stayed north of Acadiana. Alexandria, Shreveport, and Monroe had a complex of severe storms in the afternoon. But just as those storms weakened, another line of storms developed and moved out of the Gulf into Cameron and other coastal parishes. This was our first good shot of rain in about a week and there will be more chances of rain to begin the work week. A stalled front which has been waving back and forth to our north will move closer and finally push south on Tuesday. The front will allow drier air to filter in before it stalls again in the Gulf and dissipates. The return flow,  or southerly winds,  kick in toward the end of the week which will bring in more moisture and a slight chance of rain before a stronger front moves through.

We’re setting up for a warm weekend with plenty of clouds and some scattered shower and/or thundershower activity.  A frontal boundary to the north will sag southward into Central Louisiana before becoming nearly stationary.  This frontal boundary will bring more clouds and scattered shower activity to the region Saturday.  The best chance for some thunderstorms should stay to the north and west of the region, but a few brief rumbles of thunder may be possible.  The weekend shouldn’t be a washout however with any activity staying scattered and brief in nature and there will be some sunshine mixed in, especially late in the afternoons.  The front will begin to return back to the north Sunday but there will probably be a few daytime heating-induced showers.  It may feel quite summer-like Sunday with highs in the mid-80s but winds should get breezier for Sunday afternoon taking a little out of the heat factor.  Widely scattered showers may be possible again on Monday, but we should see a healthy increase in the chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday as a stronger front tries to push through.

I did some research on the Atchafalaya at Morgan City and if we do see a crest of 7.5ft on April 8^th it will be the highest the water has risen since 1997.  We are not anticipating levels to go higher than the current forecast, but any significant precipitation to our north could be problematic if it occurs in the same flood ravaged areas.  We’ll have more on this story next week.  Have a good weekend!    

From the NWS in Slidell…we’ll keep an eye on this situation with more updates 

as we get a better feel for the water that will come down this Mississippi next week…

FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN

LOUISIANA...

   THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER AT MORGAN CITY AFFECTING ST. MARY PARISH

 1004 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR

  THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER AT MORGAN CITY.

* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.

* AT 7:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.2 FEET.

* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.

* THE FLOOD STAGE IS 4.0 FEET.

* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 5.8 FEET

  BY TUESDAY APRIL 1ST AND CREST NEAR 7.5 FEET ON TUESDAY MORNING

  APRIL 8TH.

* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...BUILDINGS AT THE FOOT OF ANN STREET ON THE

  RIVER SIDE OF THE FLOOD WALL WILL FLOOD AS WATER OVERTOPS THE RIO

  OIL COMPANY DOCK. BUILDINGS ON THE RIVER SIDE OF THE BERWICK

  FLOODWALL WILL FLOOD. RIVER TRAFFIC RESTRICTIONS WILL BE STRICTLY

  ENFORCED.

Hopefully the skies stay fair enough this evening to see the Jules Verne and International Space Station around 7:44pm/7:45pm this evening.  Both craft will appear almost overhead in the western sky and will be heading to the northeast.  They should be viewable for about 3 minutes, but they’ll probably be darting in and out behind some of the clouds this evening.  The European Space Agency’s Jules Verne Supply Ship is 1200 miles ahead of the ISS and will appear about 1 minute before the space station.  The supply ship will dock with the ISS on April 3.  We may not get to see these satellites for a couple of weeks after tomorrow evening, and tomorrow night it will be harder to see, so grab the kids tonight if you haven’t already done so.

Our weather will continue to warm as we head toward the weekend with partly cloudy skies through Friday.  Look for milder temperatures tonight near 60 and low-mid 60s into the weekend while highs tomorrow will be near 80 and the low-mid 80s Friday into the weekend.  Cloud cover should increase during the late nights and early mornings over the next few days with partly sunny and breezy conditions likely for the afternoon hours.  Winds tomorrow will increase quickly by 10:00 am and should increase into the 15-20mph range tomorrow afternoon.  It will probably stay breezy into the weekend, and may be a factor for the Louisiana Open.  A frontal boundary will approach but stall north of the area Saturday triggering a few widely scattered showers, but better rain chances should be to the north and west of Acadiana.  Rain chances will be in the vicinity of 30% Saturday, near 20% Sunday and 30% for Monday.  A stronger frontal boundary will approach by Tuesday morning possibly giving us better rain chances and some thunderstorm by early Tuesday.  

The Space Shuttle Endeavor was delayed on return but has initiated its second opportunity de-orbit burn which will bring the craft back to Florida shortly after 7:30pm our time.  Unfortunately the landing ground tracks won’t be over our area.  You may be able to see the International Space Station around 8:59pm tonight in the northern sky about 15 degrees above the horizon which is just above the tree line so it may be hard to see, but tomorrow night, Thursday evening, we should have a good overhead view, provided the clouds hang back of the Jules Verne cargo ship at 7:44 pm coming in from the western sky with the ISS one minute behind at 7:45 pm.   

Adding to the previous entry…many of you emailed and called this evening about the object a few minutes ahead of the Space Shuttle and International Space Station around 8:30pm.  The first object was a supply ship; the Jules Verne cargo craft is parked 2000km (1200 miles) ahead the space station (noted as “ATV” in the sightings list) is the European Space Agency’s space craft launched out of French Guiana that brings supplies to the station.  It should dock with the ISS on April 3.  Right now the Jules Verne is in practice mode but should help NASA with re-supplying the Space Station, especially as the shuttle fleet comes closer to retirement.  The view tomorrow night won’t be as good as the space crafts will be fairly low on the horizon in the northern sky at 8:59pm, but there will be a good opportunity Thursday evening at 7:45pm…provided we have clear skies, which is looking somewhat doubtful at this time.    

It will be a perfect evening for viewing the Space Shuttle and International Space Station tonight at 8:34pm in the western sky.  Both spacecraft will be moving nearly overhead and should be visible for nearly 4 minutes as they move eastward across our skies at 17,250mph. Both spacecraft will pass the Texas border and be east of the Mississippi River in less than 60 seconds!   Space Shuttle Endeavor will land in Florida late tomorrow afternoon but the landing ground tracks will not bring the craft over our area.  Our weather will gradually segue to not only warmer and more humid conditions for the rest of the week, but we’ll also see a general increase in cloud cover.  Look for some clouds to work their way into the region by daybreak with partly to at time mostly cloudy skies expected during the morning hours through midday with more sunshine and breezy/gusty southerly winds tomorrow afternoon.  Highs will push into the mid-upper 70s tomorrow and should reach the lower 80s for Thursday.  Friday into the weekend will bring plenty of late night and early morning cloudiness with partly sunny and breezy conditions during the afternoons.  Highs will likely push into the low-mid 80s for this weekend.  A weakening frontal boundary will approach by Saturday possibly sparking off a few scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, but best rain chances should stay to our north.  Warm conditions with the chance of scattered showers will stay with us through early next week with possibly a better frontal push producing a better chance of storms by next Monday night or Tuesday.

Quick update…I received erroneous information on the undocking of the Shuttle, which actually occures at 6:56pm this evening, which will put the two spacecrafts very close to one another this evening at 811pm…could be a really neat view!  Thanks to Neil Robichau, a viewer and emailer, for alerting me to that.  Rob

With our crystal clear skies this evening we will have an extra treat of being able to see the Space Shuttle and International Space Station this evening at 8:11pm in the south-southwestern sky.  Space Shuttle Endeavor which detached from the space station earlier today will be the first object visible with the space station following right behind.  And if you miss it tonight you’ll be able to see them again tomorrow evening, just check the aforementioned ISS link.  Both spacecrafts will be moving from right to left in the southern sky this evening.  Endeavor will be landing Wednesday evening and tomorrow I will post the landing ground tracks when they become available from NASA.  Weather-wise expect smooth sailing with warmer temperatures through the rest of the week into the weekend.  Weakening frontal boundaries will approach the region and should become nearly stationary to our north and west this weekend and early next week which may allow for slight rain chances beginning Friday and continuing into the weekend and early next week.  It appears that our best chance for stronger storms will come about the middle part of next week…around the 2^nd or 3^rd of April.