KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

More heat and higher humidity are in the forecast throughout the weekend into much of next week.  Our upper ridge will stay dominant through mid-next week but should flatten later next week opening the door for a little more in the way of tropical moisture and eventually a few daytime showers.  Dew points and overnight lows will rise into the low-mid 70s into next week while daytime highs should rise into the lower 90s.  This means it will certainly feel like mid-summer with heat indices approaching the 100 degree mark as early as Sunday and continuing for much of next week.  Farther down the road the models continue to suggest that the deep tropical moisture across Central America and the Northwestern Caribbean will be advancing into the Gulf of Mexico by next weekend with much higher rain chances a possibility for Acadiana into the following week.  There could be some sort of tropical development in the Gulf around the June 7-10^th time period but there are way too many variables to resolve that far out…will see.  So enjoy the weekend and the dry weather while it lasts!

The first Tropical Storm of the 2008 Eastern Pacific Season formed late last night into early this morning off the coast of Nicaragua. Tropical Storm Alma has likely reached its peak intensity at 65mph due to its proximity to the coast. This system will drift north-northwestward inland across Central America tomorrow into the weekend and may dissipate thereafter. However, lower than normal pressures and deep tropical moisture will stay in place in that region over the next 3-5 days, so severe flooding will be possible. Long range models continue to have different solutions with the future in this area with additional development still a possibility anywhere from the Bay of Campeche, through the Southern Gulf and/or Northwestern Caribbean mid-late next week so we’ll continue to monitor this area. Meanwhile our local weather will stay hot and mostly dry with minimal rain chances through the weekend into the early part of next week. A slight increase in moisture and a weakening of the upper ridge may occur mid-late next week at least opening the door for a few afternoon showers and/or storms. Highs will continue near 90, perhaps a few degrees hotter into early next week, while lows tonight will be in the more comfortable upper 60s, moderating to near 70 this weekend and into the low-mid 70s next week.

Our weather should stay rather sedate as we head into the weekend with slight rain chances for our Thursday with decreasing rain chances Friday into the weekend. A summer ridge of high pressure will strengthen over the area this weekend into early next week serving to squelch any afternoon storm activity. So after Thursday our rain chances will likely lower to 10% or less through early next week. The tropics are looking more summer-like too with an area of disturbed weather on the Eastern Pacific side of Central America looking a little more organized. This system will likely fester across portions of Central America and perhaps translate into the extreme Northwestern Caribbean with time. The longer range models continue to show lower pressures across this area into next week with some northward drift toward the Gulf by the latter part of the first week of June. Since high pressure will dominate over our part of the world well into next week, I would not look for this system to make a definitive move through the next 4-5 days, but it could certainly get more interesting beyond that time-frame.

On a side note, I was invited to participate in The National Weather Service’s Bayou Vermilion River Conference earlier today. The object of this conferenceis to get government entities and the emergency preparedness community involved with current research and modeling of the river, including activities at the Bayou Vermilion District, and how to better understand the behavior of the bayou/river with all its major quirks. The Vermilion is a very different body of water that can flood quickly in heavy rain events, reverse flow northward, and can act like a retention pond depending on the scope and intensity of any given weather event. We just recently experienced how quickly the river can rise last Thursday when the level at Surrey Street rose to over 11ft. My part of the conference was to present some historical weather events that have impacted the Vermilion. The graphic here depicts the top 6 river crests on record and the weather events that led to flooding. Interestingly enough, the top 20 weather events were evenly spread across winter, fall and spring systems to summer tropical events. The last major flood with the river occurred during the week that Tropical Storm Allison (or rather the weak low pressure circulation inland across Texas) in 2001 which pounded the area with 10-32 inch rains. Hopefully this conference will be a starting point for a more pro-active reckoning with this body of water and all its tributaries and coulees. The resounding note through-out this conference is that the ever-present flooding threat that this river poses, and that similar rainfall events of the past will likely lead to much worse flooding in the future due to our urban growth and sprawl. With the always dynamic weather of our area, severe flooding along this river seems a certainty.

Storm Surge and Marine Safety
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
800 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

…HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS TWO…STORM SURGE AND MARINE SAFETY…

HURRICANES ARE SOMETIMES CALLED THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH. STRONG
WINDS…HIGH WATER AND WAVES ARE PERHAPS THE MOST VISUAL
CHARACTERISTICS OF THIS SHOW. THE STORM SURGE AND HIGH WAVES ARE
MOST DESTRUCTIVE TO COASTAL FACILITIES AND CAN CAUSE TREMENDOUS
COASTAL EROSION.

BECAUSE OF THE SHALLOW COASTAL WATERS OFF THE UPPER TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COASTS…STORM SURGES WILL BE HIGHER FOR A TROPICAL
STORM OR HURRICANE MAKING LANDFALL VERSES THE SAME STORM HITTING
OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. AS PROVEN DURING HURRICANES AUDREY AND
RITA…THE STORM SURGE CAN REACH TO OVER 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS. WIND WAVES WILL MAKE THE EFFECTIVE WATER LEVEL EVEN HIGHER.

HISTORICALLY…THE STORM SURGE WAS THE MAJOR CAUSE OF DEATH FROM
HURRICANES. HOWEVER…IN THE UNITED STATES…IMPROVED NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT EVACUATIONS
HAVE REDUCED THESE NUMBERS. WITH INCREASING POPULATION ALONG
COASTLINE…THE POTENTIAL FOR LOSS OF LIFE AND PROPERTY DUE TO
STORM SURGE STILL REMAINS GREAT…AS WAS THE CASE DURING KATRINA.
THIS POTENTIAL IS INCREASED WHEN WARNINGS AND EVACUATION ORDERS
ARE NOT HEEDED.

INCREASING MARINE ACTIVITIES SUCH AS OIL AND GAS PLATFORMS AND
MARINERS ARE AT AN EVEN GREATER RISK DURING HURRICANES. EVERY GULF
FACILITY AND MARINER SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORECAST AND ADVISORY MESSAGES WHEN STORMS ARE ACTIVE.
THESE PRODUCTS SHOULD BE USED IN EVALUATING AND MAKING SOUND
NAVIGATION AND PLATFORM EVACUATION DECISIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING STORM SURGE…PLEASE CHECK OUT
PAGES 6-9 OF THE 2008 SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
HURRICANE AND MARINE GUIDE…AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD FROM THE LAKE
CHARLES WEBPAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE):

HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LCH

High Winds and Tornadoes
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
800 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

…HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS THREE…HIGH WINDS AND TORNADOES…

THE HURRICANE DANGER DOES NOT STOP AT THE WATER’S EDGE. DESTRUCTION
CAN BE FELT WELL INLAND. THERE ARE UNIQUE PROBLEMS FACED BY THOSE
LIVING IN THE SHADOW OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

ONE PROBLEM IS TRANSPORTATION. IN ADDITION TO A LACK OF HIGH CAPACITY
HIGHWAYS RUNNING NORTH, THE ABILITY TO EVACUATE WILL BE HAMPERED BY
EXPOSURE OF HIGH BRIDGES TO STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THE STORM.

EXPECT HIGH AND EXPOSED BRIDGES TO BE CLOSED BY THE TIME GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SUCH BRIDGES INCLUDE THE RAINBOW BRIDGE AT BRIDGE
CITY, THE I-10 AND I-210 BRIDGES OVER THE CALCASIEU RIVER AT LAKE
CHARLES, AND THE I-10 BRIDGE AT THE SABINE RIVER ON THE TEXAS-
LOUISIANA LINE.

ANOTHER PROBLEM IS THE ABUNDANCE OF LARGE TREES WITH SHALLOW ROOT
SYSTEMS. IN ADDITION TO ROAD CLOSURES AND POWER OUTAGES, THESE TREES
POSE A THREAT TO CRASH DOWN ON YOUR DWELLING. THIS CAUSED A LOT OF
DAMAGE TO OUR AREA DURING RITA.

TALL BUILDINGS ARE SUBJECT TO MORE DAMAGE THAN STRUCTURES CLOSER TO
THE GROUND. IT HAS BEEN PROVEN THAT THE WINDS CAN INCREASE BY A
CATEGORY NUMBER FOR BUILDINGS OF MORE THAN TEN STORIES. AS SHOWN IN
HOUSTON DURING HURRICANE ALICIA IN AUGUST OF 1983…BROKEN GLASS CAN
BE A MAJOR PROBLEM.

DEBRIS SUCH AS SIGNS, ROOFING MATERIAL, AND SMALL ITEMS LEFT OUTSIDE
BECOME FLYING MISSILES IN HURRICANES. GRAVEL USED FOR LANDSCAPING CAN
BE DANGEROUS. A BROKEN WINDOW CAN COMPROMISE THE STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY
OF YOUR HOME. THIS IS WHY WINDOW SHUTTERS SHOULD BE PART OF YOUR
PREPAREDNESS KIT.

NO MANUFACTURED HOME IS SAFE IN HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. THOSE
RESIDENTS SHOULD EVACUATE TO A SAFER STRUCTURE ONCE LOCAL OFFICIALS
ISSUE A HURRICANE EVACUATION ORDER OR RECOMMENDATION FOR THEIR
COMMUNITY.

FINALLY, AS A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM MAKES LANDFALL, TORNADOES
TYPICALLY DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS. THESE TORNADOES ARE USUALLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN RAINBANDS WELL AWAY FROM THE STORM CENTER…BUT NOT
ALWAYS. THESE TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO DETECT BECAUSE THEY ARE SO
SHALLOW…AND THERE MAY BE LITTLE OR NO WARNING. TREAT RAIN SQUALLS
AS POTENTIAL TORNADO PRODUCERS AND GO TO AN INNER ROOM OR A BASEMENT
WITH EACH APPROACH. BESIDES TORNADOES…SQUALLS FROM RAINBANDS CAN
PRODUCE GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING HIGH WINDS AND TORNADOES…
PLEASE CHECK OUT PAGES 9-10 OF THE 2008 SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS HURRICANE AND MARINE GUIDE…AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD
FROM THE LAKE CHARLES WEBPAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE):

HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LCH

Rain is making a comeback in the forecast with scattered storms spotted on the radar this evening. A “cap” or a warm layer of air aloft has been keeping rain away over the past few days but now that warm layer has dissipated and storms have developed. The cap can break if enough moisture rises from the surface and builds up under the layer causing it to cool. Then any air that rises after that continues to rise and storms develop as a result. A little weather lesson for you but caps form quite often this time of year and it will play a big role in our rain chances through the summer.

We can expect more showers Wednesday and Thursday as a front moves closer. High pressure will re-establish itself here over the weekend and we’ll stay dry but hot and temperatures will reach into the lower 90s.

Our week will be quite typical for late May/early June with hot and humid conditions persisting. A ridge of high pressure aloft has squelched most shower and thunderstorm activity over the last few days and will continue to dominate through Wednesday. By Thursday a frontal trough to the north will weaken as it drops southward but should put enough of a dent in the ridge to allow for a few scattered afternoon showers and storms later this week into the weekend. Rain chances shouldn’t go too high, but the best chance of some storms should come by Thursday. The ridge should re-strengthen over the weekend with even hotter conditions possible into next week. As I advertised in previous entries over the last few weeks, the tropics look to heat-up across the Northwestern Caribbean, Central America and possibly the southern Gulf in about a week’s time. The latest run of the GFS Long Range Model puts some sort of system threatening the Gulf of Mexico in a week to 10 days…we’ll see.

Meanwhile check out the NWS’s Lake Charles Tropical page, in particular the Storm Surge Inundation Maps for Acadiana…also stay tuned for new online tools from KATC for tracking storms and severe weather in the coming days.

Today is the start of hurricane preparedness week and in order to get prepared we have to think about lessons learned from past storms. The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has prepared an overview of hurricanes that have impacted Acadiana.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
800 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008
�
…HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS ONE…
…HURRICANE HISTORY OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS…
�
THE LAKE CHARLES WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE SERVES THE COASTAL AREAS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.
�
IN 2007…SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITNESSED THE QUICKEST STRENGTHENING
TROPICAL CYCLONE JUST BEFORE A UNITED STATES LANDFALL. HURRICANE
HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 MPH TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 4 AM
SEPTEMBER 12TH TO A 90 MPH HURRICANE AT LANDFALL JUST EAST OF HIGH
ISLAND BY 2 AM ON THE 13TH. FORTUNATELY…HUMBERTO WAS A EXTREMELY
SMALL STORM…MINIMIZING THE STORM SURGE TO UNDER 5 FEET ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. MOST OF THE DAMAGE FROM HUMBERTO CAME FROM
MINIMAL HURRICANE FORCE WINDS JUST A FEW MILES WIDE FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO PORT ARTHUR AND ORANGE TEXAS.
�
UNLIKE HUMBERTO…HURRICANE RITA BECAME THE NEW LANDMARK STORM FOR
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS SEPTEMBER 23-24, 2005. EVEN
THOUGH RITA WEAKENED TO A 115 MPH HURRICANE AT LANDFALL…THE SIZE
OF THE STORM INCREASED…WHICH SPREAD HURRICANE FORCE WINDS FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA TEXAS…AND
INLAND TO TOLEDO AND SAM RAYBURN RESERVOIRS.
�
STORM SURGE EFFECTS WERE CATASTROPHIC ACROSS CAMERON AND VERMILION
PARISHES. WITH A STORM OF THIS SIZE…AND THE FACT THAT RITA WAS
ONCE A VERY STRONG CATEGORY FIVE STORM TWO DAYS EARLIER…A LARGER
THAN NORMAL STORM SURGE WAS GENERATED ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINES. STORM SURGE VALUES RANGED FROM 15-17
FEET FROM HOLLY BEACH TO CAMERON…12 TO 15 FEET ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF CAMERON PARISH…AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS VERMILION AND
IBERIA PARISHES…AS WELL AS EASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS.
�
EVEN THOUGH THE RESULTS OF THE WIND AND STORM SURGE WERE DEVASTATING
…ONLY ONE FATALITY CAN BE DIRECTLY ATTRIBUTED TO RITA ACROSS OUR
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. THIS LOW NUMBER CAN BE DIRECTLY ATTRIBUTED
TO THE ADVANCES IN DETECTION AND EDUCATION OF HURRICANES …AS WELL
AS MUCH BETTER COMMUNICATION BETWEEN THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AND THE AREAS EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND THE PUBLIC.
�
THE OTHER LANDMARK STORM FOR THIS AREA IS HURRICANE AUDREY…THE
STRONGEST…DEADLIEST AND MOST DESTRUCTIVE JUNE HURRICANE TO HIT
THE UNITED STATES IN MODERN RECORD KEEPING.  AUDREY MADE LANDFALL
NEAR SABINE PASS ON THE MORNING OF JUNE 27, 1957. AUDREY WAS ALSO
A LARGE STORM THAT INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE LANDFALL…
THE STORM SURGE WAS THE BIGGEST KILLER. TO THIS DATE…THE EXACT
NUMBER THAT PERISHED IS STILL IN QUESTION…BUT ESTIMATES ARE
OVER 500.
�
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING HURRICANE HISTORY OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS…PLEASE CHECK OUT PAGES 4-5 OF THE
2008 SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS HURRICANE AND MARINE
GUIDE…AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD FROM THE LAKE CHARLES WEBPAGE AT
(USE LOWER CASE):
�
HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LCH

Our weather this week stays hot and humid with a slight chance of showers each day, highs around 90 and lows around 70.

Enjoy your week!

After the flooding rains yesterday and last night we are expecting and extended period of lower rain chances and hotter temperatures as a strong summer ridge of high pressure develops across the region. Widely scattered late afternoon showers and a few storms will be possible in this pattern this weekend with activity most likely to develop over the eastern part of the state and then drift westward during the afternoon/evening hours. Rain chances will generally be 20% or less but could increase slightly Monday/Tuesday as a weak tropical wave will rotate around the upper ridge. Expect highs to reach into the lower 90s Saturday and Sunday lowering to near 90 into next week. Meanwhile our overnight lows will stay quite steamy with mid-upper 70s this weekend and low-mid 70s, perhaps even a little cooler mid-next week. Rain chances after Monday will stay slight until later in the week when deeper tropical moisture could rebuild over the region.

I received an email from a viewer last week inquiring about determining the location of the “blue” (or clear) water off of the Louisiana Coast. While there is no definitive information that I could find on the web, I did come across some great MODIS Satellite Imagery that generates high resolution 250 meter imagery. This satellite pictures will also integrate into your Google Earth, but you can only download the highest resolution imagery online. This satellite imagery is generated by NASA’s Polar Orbiter which flies much lower (a few hundred miles up) than the typical geostationary satellites that are parked roughly 20,000 miles above the earth. The result is only a couple of decent overpasses during the day with patches of missing data possible each day. Check it out though as you can really see the sandy/muddy effluent along our coast, and you’ll know how far out you need to go on that next deep sea fishing trip! Have a great weekend and try to stay cool!

It’s been another incredibly busy afternoon and evening with very heavy storms that moved into the region

today. Unfortunately storms trained over the same areas across portions of Evangeline, St Landry, Lafayette and

St Martin Parishes with some areas receiving between 5-12 inches in less than 6 hours…Here’s our “on-air” crawl as of 11:30pm…”FLOOD WARNINGS remain in effect for EASTERN LAFAYETTE, SOUTHEASTERN ST LANDRY, and NORTHWESTERN ST. MARTIN Parishes until 5:00AM…Numerous reports of flooding are

reported particularly in St Landry and St Martin Parishes…Highway 347 near Breaux Bridge is closed with numerous other roads closed in St Martin Parish due to flooding…Storms are clearing the area but flood waters will be slow to recede…” Tomorrow we should segue to more scattered showers and a few thunderstorms as the upper disturbance moves out, but there will be plenty of left over moisture. I am going higher on the rain chances than computer model guidance as I do expect more sunshine tomorrow and that convective temperatures will likely be in the mid-80s which should trigger some storms. Very summer-like conditions are anticipated for the weekend into next week with a few daytime showers and storms possible along with highs near 90 and lows in the low-mid 70s. Stay with KATC “on-air” late tonight and early this morning for additional flooding information with a full report on Good Morning Acadiana at 5:00am…

As expected…

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officials also said 12 to 16 named storms and two to five major hurricanes could form in the season that starts June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

They said there is only a 60 to 70 percent chance for their predictions to come true, the first time officials gave a probability. They want people to realize the forecasts are uncertain, to avoid complacency that can occur when previous forecasts were wrong.

While most seasonal forecasts are fairly accurate, some years have been way off: for example, government forecasters expected 12 to 15 named storms in 2005, but there turned out to be 28, the busiest season on record.

Forecasters stress residents should always be prepared no matter what the seasonal forecasts say, because even a slow year can be disastrous. Seasonal forecasts don’t predict whether, where or when any of these storms may hit land.

“We don’t want anyone changing their preparation plans because of the seasonal outlook. The only number that matters is the number one, the one storm that you need to prepare for,” said Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the National Hurricane Center, which is part of NOAA.

An average season has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes for which two reach major status of at least Category 3 with winds of more than 110 mph.

Forecasters and emergency responders fear that coastal residents will be apathetic this year after the United States escaped the past two storm seasons virtually unscathed.

“Living in a coastal state means having a plan for each and every hurricane season. Review or complete emergency plans now – before a storm threatens,” said Conrad C. Lautenbacher, NOAA administrator. “Planning and preparation is the key to storm survival and recovery.”

Colorado State University weather researcher William Gray expects 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major this year. Last year, there were 15 named storms and six hurricanes, two of which were major. The government predicted 13 to 17 named storms, seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes.

Gray was further off the mark. Before the start of the season, he forecast 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes, five of them major.