Getting your hurricane supplies and establishing a plan of action should be on your agenda tomorrow and early this weekend based on the latest track and intensity forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center late this afternoon. Unfortunately the hurricane models and the NHC agree that there will likely be a significant hurricane threat to most of the Louisiana coastline and Acadiana early next week with an increasing likelihood of tropical storm conditions with gusty winds and rain likely beginning late Monday and continuing into Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday. It’s way too early to call where landfall will be as steering currents are rather dubious early next week. Although Acadiana is in the centerline of the cone today we all have to remember that 100 miles makes a big difference in what kind of weather, wind and possible surge that we may see. Statistically speaking however there is a good chance we will see some weather from this system but how much we won’t be able to accurately answer until later this weekend. For some historical hurricane climatology both Lili in 2002 and Hilda in 1964 came from this general direction while Andrew in 1992 came in on a similar angle along the coast as compared with today’s forecast track. Interestingly enough, even throwing in Rita’s wind event in 2005 all four storms never produced sustained hurricane force winds in Lafayette (but there were peak gusts near 90mph in the parish), but it was exponentially worse for the coastal pariahs of the area. So at the least anticipate the possibility of wind damage and obviously heavy rains early next week. The GFS model insists on stalling this system across the region which could lead to major flooding rains…hopefully this system once it gets moving stays moving. In addition, there is no way we can estimate any kind of potential storm surge but if the current track shifts 50-100 miles farther to the west at landfall then a significant surge would be possible for Acadiana. Based on today’s track surge issues would be confined to Iberia and St Mary Parishes but angle of storm approach is everything. With Hurricane Andrew the surge was significant mainly from St Mary Parish eastward with mostly offshore winds during that event. It’s always better to have a storm paralleling the coast rather than striking on a 90 degree angle as that maximizes the surge potential. A slower moving storm will also be bad news for Eastern Louisiana and New Orleans as easterly storm tides may seriously test the levees. Again it’s too early to say what we may or may not see…but it is most prudent for all of us to be ready, and hope that we miss it all…but that is looking less likely at this time. Some useful links: Get a Game Plan (for preps), Louisiana State Police (for evacuation information, contra-flow and road closures), American Red Cross, FEMA, and KATC Weather Page. Also if things do go downhill KATC plans on partnering with Regent Broadcasting to re-transmit our audio and stream live coverage on the web.