KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Just as we head back to work cool Canadian air will settle in just briefly. Monday highs will only reach into the mid to upper 50s with a low of 29 north of I-10. You’ll have to protect the three P’s: pipes, plants, and pets. But temperatures begin to rebound quickly through the week as high pressure slides east and a return flow sets up bringing moist air off of the Gulf. There will be another front between Wednesday night and Thursday to give us a chance of rain. This front is not expected to be as strong and skies will clear before the weekend.  Since skies will be clear the next few nights I wanted to remind you that Venus and Jupiter are still visible, if you would like to do some star gazing.

Also I will be going out of town for the next couple of weeks so Rob and Dave will be taking turns with the weekend shifts. Enjoy your week!

Umbrellas will be required for our big shopping day as scattered showers and storms remain in the forecast.  Activity will be possible at any point during the day with increasing coverage possible late Friday night into Saturday morning.  Although activity will be scattered in nature an inch or two of rain will be possible and there will also be the slight risk of some strong storms, especially during the afternoon and again overnight into very early Saturday morning.  The complex pattern won’t resolve itself until the latter part of the weekend.  Temperatures will remain quite mild tonight in the mid-60s with some sea fog possibly mixing in by morning.  Highs Friday should be in the mid-70s but should cool into the mid-upper 60s for Saturday.  Although the surface frontal boundary should push into the Gulf for Saturday morning another upper disturbance rolling out through the Rockies will allow for additional rains/shower activity for the latter part of Saturday into Saturday night.  Colder weather with mostly cloudy skies and drier conditions will move into the region for Sunday with highs closer to the upper 50s.  Colder conditions will drop in for Sunday night into Monday with freezes possible Monday and Tuesday mornings.  The models have been all over the place for the temperature forecast post-Sunday; temperatures will be dependent on cloud cover, winds etc so our lows could either be a few degrees colder or warmer, but again the bottom line is that will will feel like winter from Monday morning through Tuesday morning.

We are still expecting a rather comfortable Thanksgiving Day with highs in the mid-70s in spite of mostly cloudy skies.  A few quick moving scattered light showers will be possible with rain chances no higher than 20-30%.  As I have been alluding to over the last few days, the pattern gets complex into the weekend with a frontal boundary and a strong jet aloft allowing for scattered showers and/or periods of rain Friday with another disturbance rolling in for Saturday keeping rain chances in the area.  Rainfall totals should be in the .25-.75 inch range Friday and it’s debatable on whether we see soaking rains on Saturday.  The bulk of the weather system Saturday may manifest offshore in the Gulf, but we should get a better idea on that tomorrow.  Thereafter, if you believe the GFS Model, which I think is gaining more credibility from run to run, we could see the coldest air of the season moving in for Sunday into Monday.  At this point I wouldn’t expect much in the way of sunshine through Monday although we may see a few peaks Sunday and/or Monday.  So with mostly cloudy skies look for our mild highs in the lower 70s Saturday to drop into the 50s and eventually the 40s for Sunday morning.  Highs Sunday should be in the upper 40s to lower-mid 50s while the coldest air arrives Sunday night into Monday and Monday night…we could see a hard freeze for Tuesday morning based on the latest guidance I’m looking at…there will likely be more changes, but at least it looks like we’ll get to use our winter coats for a day or two.  A quick warm-up will occur for mid-next week with the chance of rain and or storms returning for late Wednesday or Thursday of next week.  Happy Thanksgiving!

As expected a different day and a whole new series of disagreeing computer models!  In the near term it will be cold tonight with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s by morning.  Some patchy frost and patchy shallow ground fog will also be possible tomorrow morning, mainly in the northern parishes of Acadiana.  Mostly sunny skies will allow the temperature to rebound to near 70 tomorrow but high clouds will invade and begin to thicken by late in the day.  That means milder conditions for tomorrow night with mostly cloudy skies still expected Thursday.  A few light quick moving showers are possible for Thursday but rain chances shouldn’t be too high.  Meanwhile the first of a couple of cold fronts will arrive Friday allowing for a better chance of scattered showers possibly a few storms.  This is where the forecast gets murky as another upper disturbance could energize the frontal boundary in the Gulf allowing for weak low pressure to develop Saturday.  Right now it looks like 90% of this system will stay offshore but I have kept rain chances for Saturday just in case.  The second front pushes in for Sunday with atmospheric profiles look quite winter-like.  This I am going with much colder temperatures than the computer guidance for Sunday through Tuesday…and it could be colder.  Today it looks dry after Saturday until mid-next week.  Tomorrow probably a different solution with the jet-stream so close to us.  The bottom line…it looks to get quite cold by late in the weekend into early next week…stay tuned!

Scattered showers and thundershowers pushed through the area this afternoon ahead of a cool front that will bring cool and dry weather back to the area for a couple of days.  Look for temperatures to drop into the low-mid 40s with breezy northerly winds overnight.  This front is not nearly as strong as the last few that Acadiana has seen with less in the way of cold air and wind expected with this one.  Highs tomorrow should rebound nicely into the mid-upper 60s with unabated sunshine.  Fair and chilly conditions with some late night early morning patchy fog will be possible for Wednesday morning.  Although Wednesday should be mostly sunny and mild, expect high clouds to begin to invade the area as the sub-tropical jet stream becomes more active overhead for later in the week, into the weekend and at least for a part of next week.  That will mean more quick changes for us including healthier precipitation events with more clouds ultimately some chilly conditions.  Models are at odds beyond Friday so forecast confidence is not that high, but that has never stopped us from trying to make an accurate forecast!  Thursday/Thanksgiving mostly cloudy and mild conditions are expected with a few passing scattered showers possible during the day.  A stronger disturbance and an area of low pressure may get cranked up across the area Friday allowing for a good chance of rain and embedded thunderstorms.  The system should move eastward allowing for cooler and drier air at the surface to spill into the region Saturday but another upper disturbance could allow for rains to return on Sunday…and they could be chilly rains at that.  Putting some faith in the long range models also would yield another “cool” active weather event for next Tuesday into Wednesday…the bottom line: be prepared for lots of weather changes and probably changes to the forecast as we head into the weekend and beyond!

Temperatures have rebounded nicely from Friday with highs now reaching into the low 70s. No more big cool downs in the forecast but it does stay active with several cold fronts moving through. These fronts orginated in the Pacific rather than the Arctic so they won’t be really cold. Rain will be the big issue through the work week starting on Monday when the next front approaches. It looks like rain could become pretty widespread then a squall line pushing through in the evening.

We’ll clear up for a few days with very pleasant weather expected as high pressure moves in. Then another front passes between Thanksgiving and the day after. We’ll have scattered showers both days and slightly cooler temperatures for the weekend.

Enjoy your week!

It will be a cold one tonight with temperatures dropping into the low-mid 30s by tomorrow morning.  Freeze Warnings have been issued for the northern parishes of Acadiana with Freeze Watches for the rest of us.  Winds will be the key on whether temperatures drop below freezing for any appreciable time as model data continues to suggest enough wind to keep temperatures closer to the mid-30s.  Dew points are in the lower 20s so if the winds calm we could certainly see a moderate freeze especially along and north of the I-10 corridor.  It won’t be a “pipe” issue tonight but plants and pets will need attention for sure.  Temperatures will warm quickly under mostly sunny skies tomorrow with highs reaching the lower 60s.  Some high clouds may begin to invade the area late Saturday with a return flow from the Gulf likely to moderate our temperatures tomorrow night with lows holding in the upper 40s.  Their could also be some patchy dense fog in the mix for Sunday morning as well.  The next frontal trough will likely induce more cloudiness for the latter part of Sunday with rain chances developing Sunday night into Monday.  This next system won’t bring much in the way of cooler temperatures…in fact, I would look for seasonable temperatures from Sunday through Friday with highs ranging in the upper 60s to lower 70s.  Rain chance should return for the latter part of Thanksgiving…mainly the evening hours into Friday.  Have a great weekend!

The ongoing forecast looks to be on track with a strong cold front crossing the area between 9pm and 11pm this evening.  Temperatures will drop into the mid-40s by morning and won’t get much higher than the mid-50s Friday.  The lows tomorrow night could be the coldest of the season with near freezing conditions for Saturday morning.  Thereafter milder temperatures will return for the rest of the weekend through much of Thanksgiving week.

After a chilly one this morning with lows in the mid-30s we warmed up nicely this afternoon with highs in the mid-60s.  Tonight shouldn’t be as cool with lows in the mid-40s, but with light southerly winds and temperatures meeting up with the dew points after midnight some patchy dense fog could form by morning.  Any fog tomorrow morning will burn off quickly with mostly sunny skies and a westerly component to the wind allowing for temperatures to reach into the mid-70s tomorrow afternoon.  Don’t get to used to the mild temperatures as yet another moderately strong cool front will push through the area Thursday night with highs 15-20 degrees cooler Friday.  Highs on Friday will stay in the mid-upper 50s with another cold night expected Friday night into Saturday morning.  Lows could be near 33-34 degrees for Saturday morning so the tender plants will need some attention.  Fair to partly cloudy and seasonably cool temperatures are anticipated for the weekend with highs back into the mid-60s Saturday and near 70 on Sunday.  Some shower activity is expected for Monday with an upper disturbance with dry and seasonable weather expected Tuesday through Thanksgiving.  As I have alluded to over the last few days it appears that a more active weather pattern will commence right after Thanksgiving with an active southern storm track allowing for several wet and perhaps stormy weather systems into the first days of December.

A reinforcing cool front is on the way for our Tuesday increasing our winds and bringing our temperatures back down into the mid-upper 3-s for Wednesday morning.  This front is moisture starved so we are not expecting much in the way of weather nor any clouds.  Temperatures however will be 5-10 degrees cooler Tuesday (closer to 60) as compared with Monday.  After a chilly, perhaps a frosty start Wednesday we should see afternoon temperatures back into the mid-60s.  Plenty of sun is expected through Thursday with temperatures rebounding into the lower 70s Thursday afternoon prior to a series of weak upper disturbances that could usher some clouds and perhaps a few light sprinkles (mainly offshore and to the west).  Longer range models are at odds for this weekend and beyond so confidence in the forecast for Saturday into early next week is not that high.  For now we’ll go with fair to partly cloudy and seasonably cool through the weekend.  The next front by late Monday may have some more in the way of dynamics and moisture to work with so we’ll go with some rain chances for Monday but will keep the weekend mostly dry for now.  As I alluded to last week, it appears that the next significant wet weather system will likely come a day or two after Thanksgiving. 

Incidentally with clear skies expected for Tuesday evening look for the International Space Station with the Shuttle attached to pass from the SSW’rn sky to the ENE’rn sky from 5:52pm through 5:56pm…should be nice and bright and visible!

Also, from Spaceweather.com…EVENING PLANETS: When the sun goes down tonight, step outside and look southwest. The two brightest planets, Venus and Jupiter, are shining through the twilight side by side. You’ll want to keep an eye on these two because they are drawing noticeably closer together every night.  Venus and Jupiter are converging on a patch of sky in Sagittarius where they will have a spectacular double-conjunction with the Moon at the end of the month. Don’t wait until then, though. Visit http://spaceweather.com for sky maps and start watching now.

LEONID METEOR WATCH:  The Leonid meteor shower peaks this year on Nov. 17th and 18th.  Bright moonlight will probably spoil the show, but not necessarily.  Researchers who study Comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle, the source of the Leonids, say Earth is going to pass through one or two of the comet’s dusty filaments.  Peak rates of 20 to 100 meteors per hour are possible during the early hours of Nov. 17th (especially 0000-0200 UT) and again during the waning hours of Nov. 18th (around 2130 UT).  These times favor sky watchers in Europe, Africa, and Asia.  Smaller numbers of Leonids could appear between the anticipated peak times. Meteor enthusiasts everywhere should monitor the sky on Nov. 17th and 18th; the hours before local dawn are usually best.