The weekend shaped up to be a nice one with plenty of sun, cool mornings, and comfortable afternoons. Super Bowl Sunday, the clouds will be on the increase as a shortwave (a cool pocket of air aloft that often produces clouds and rain) approaches from the Gulf and a cold front moves in from the north. The shortwave may help enhance the showers and storms expected ahead of the front so strong storms and even a few isolated severe storms are not out of the question. But right now it looks like the strongest storms will remain just offshore and near the immediate coast.
It’s been brought to my attention Power Doppler 3000 has shown some very strong returns the past couple of nights.
Even though it looks ominous, what is being picked up is actually not rain. We have a very stable atmosphere in place and as the radar beam scans Acadiana the angle of the beam increases the further it goes out. It’s hitting a layer of the atmosphere that is actually warmer than the ground (an inversion) and the beam is refracted downward to the surface. It’s picking up on trees, buildings, and everything on the ground. We call it ground clutter or a more technical term, anomalous propagation. The best way to tell if it’s ground clutter is if the returns on the radar are extremely bright and appear in a circle, it’s likely not rain. This usually happens at night or early in the morning when the ground cools faster than the air aloft. Once we get warmer air under cool air the radar returns to normal and any returns we see will likely be showers.
The cold front is still on track for Sunday night into Monday morning and rain looks very likely for most of Acadiana. Groundhog Day is Monday at sunrise and with the clouds and possible rain, I don’t think Pierre will “C.” his Shadeaux. That could mean a longer winter and a short spring.
Acadiana will see another cool and crisp night with temperatures dropping into the mid-upper 30s for morning while lots of sunshine will bring our temperatures into the mid 60s for Saturday afternoon. We continue to expect clouds to increase Sunday with patchy light rain developing during the afternoon. Heavier showers will be possible as we head into Sunday night as low pressure begins to get cranked up in the Gulf of Mexico. Some thunder will be possible Sunday night, mainly across the coastal areas, but the heavy duty storms likely form well offshore. Rain totals will probably run between 1/4 and 1/2 inch with and inch or more possible in isolated areas across the coastal parishes Sunday night. Rains should diminish Monday morning with some lingering clouds and cooler/colder temperatures to follow Monday night. Model forecasts have backed-off from there cold solutions of yesterday and from the day before with lows getting close to the low-mid 30s by Tuesday morning…and there probably won’t be any moisture left when the colder air moves in. Tuesday through Thursday of next week look cool and dry with a warm-up expected for Friday into next weekend.
Expect another cold one tonight with temperatures dropping into the low-mid 30s by tomorrow morning as a secondary surge of high pressure builds into the area. Friday will be very similar to our Thursday with a cold start but finishing in the mid-upper 50s with unabated sunshine for the afternoon. Our surface winds will begin to turn from the west and then the southwest Friday night into Saturday morning allowing for temperatures to bottom out in the mid-upper 30s to lower 40s for Saturday morning. Saturday will bring mostly sunny skies and milder temperatures as the next storm system begins to develop in the lee of Rockies. Clouds will be increasing Sunday as the sub-tropical jet begins to react to a deepening polar jet to the north. This will likely result in pretty good rain chances by late Sunday into Sunday night ending Monday morning. While the track of the low remains unclear, it appears that low 
pressure will develop south of the Louisiana Coast Sunday and then deepen is it moves eastward and then northeastward. This system has the potential for producing heavy rains and storms to the south of it and eventually significant snows for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast next week. For Acadiana we’ll go with rain Sunday night with a few embedded thunderstorms possible along the coast. Preliminary rain totals should be between .5 and 1.5 inches with higher amounts possible depending on the ultimate track of our next low. Sharply colder air in the wake of this system will pour back into the area Monday. Today’s models are much drier on the backside of this system so the risk of significant winter weather behind this system has diminished. There may be however a slight chance of a quick moving snow flurry in northern areas of Acadiana sometime late Monday or Monday night…more on this tomorrow. Temperatures could drop into the mid-upper 20s Tuesday morning as skies clear with highs hard-pressed to make 50 for Tuesday afternoon. Another freeze is anticipated for next Wednesday morning with milder conditions likely later next week into the following weekend.
The old temperature roller coaster ride will continue this week with another nice and warm one Tuesday yielding to another surge of colder air by Wednesday morning. In the near term, sea fog poised just offshore the southwest Louisiana coast will try to move inland tonight but there may be enough of a breeze to limit the fog to a low cloud deck. Nonetheless, we’ll go with fog and low clouds likely by morning with temperatures holding in the upper 50s to lower 60s. After morning fog and clouds we’ll see a few breaks during the afternoon with a few intervals of sunshine and breezy southerly winds allowing us to reach into the mid-70s. Rain chances, mostly scattered light rainshower activity, will be likely Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with temperatures dropping into the mid-upper 40s Wednesday morning and staying there much of the day. Lingering patchy drizzle/light rain and misty conditions may persist through early Wednesday afternoon, but drier conditions and eventually clearing skies are anticipated Wednesday night. Thursday through Saturday look fair and chilly with highs mostly in the 50s (with a secondary surge of cooler air arriving for Friday) with overnight lows ranging from the lower 30s to the upper 30s. We could see a light freeze/frost for Saturday morning. Long range forecasts this winter have been about as accurate at as throwing darts, but it does look like increasing cloudiness for next Sunday with the chance of rain for next Monday, Ground Hog Day! Then we’ll see how well Pierre C. Shadeaux can do with this progressive long wave pattern!
Our mild weather will depart the area Saturday with plenty of clouds and much cooler temperatures moving in during the afternoon. There may be a few showers along and behind the front but rain chances shouldn’t be too high and most activity should be quite light. Temperatures will stay in the upper 50s to lower 60s through Saturday morning and could rise into the upper 60s to near 70 before the front pushes through. Timing of the front appears quite tricky with some models pushing the 50s into the area by mid-morning and others waiting until mid-afternoon…so coastal and I-10 parishes will likely top out in the mid-upper 60s by noon with cooler conditions rushing in during the afternoon bringing our temperatures into the 
low-mid 50s by late afternoon. Cloudy, breezy and cool conditions (and maybe a few sprinkles) will stay with us Saturday night through Sunday with lows dipping into the low-mid 40s while highs stay in the low-mid 50s much of Sunday. We may see a few breaks in the clouds late Sunday but otherwise I would expect very little sun this entire weekend. Of course brighter skies are expected to return Monday! The front will move back to the north Sunday night and will bring milder weather back to the area for much of next week. The models have been flip-flopping all week long with not much agreement after next Tuesday, but today things are looking milder sooner after the weekend. Skies should become partly sunny Monday and mostly sunny for much of next week with highs getting back into the mid-70s. Another front with cooler air and some rain chances will be part of the forecast later next week with rain chances possible into the following weekend. So the bottom line…this weekend-cloudy with a chill, next week- spring-like again…late next week into the weekend…well we’ll just offload that to Kari Hall’s watch so stayed tuned! Have a good weekend.
The on-going forecast looks on track in the near term, but we’ve made changes with respect to the front that will be approaching this weekend. Computer models have become more unanimous in bringing this weekend’s front well through the area and into the Gulf of Mexico. This means that not only Saturday night and Sunday will be cooler, but it could take a few days before we warm-back up before the next frontal system approaches later next week. Temperatures will hold in the lower 50s tonight with some patchy fog possible depending on whether the winds die down enough. Friday will be breezy and warm with highs approaching the low-mid 70s but clouds will be slowly invading during the course of the day. There is somewhat of a signal for the possibility of sea fog developing Friday night into early Saturday so be on the lookout for that (more on that tomorrow). Saturday should bring mostly cloudy skies with a few showers possible during the afternoon and evening hours preceding and accompanying and perhaps following the cool front. Temperatures should drop into the mid-upper 40s Saturday night into Sunday morning with some lingering cloud cover and highs dropping into the mid-upper 50s Sunday. I do expect some sun though for Sunday afternoon. Computer models really diverge for next week but will play it for now as partly cloudy and cool with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s with 70s returning for Wednesday and Thursday. There may be a few light showers on any given day next week but right now chances should be less than 20%. Prospects of scattered showers and thunderstorms are still possible late next week but timing issues remain. It does look to get colder though for next weekend.
After sub-freezing temperatures this morning highs this afternoon managed to reach into the lower 50s. Southerly winds have kicked in across the area so our lows will be milder tonight with temperatures dropping into the low-mid 40s later this evening and then holding steady through Thursday morning. Mostly sunny skies and milder temperatures are forecast for Thursday with highs in the mid-upper 60s while highs should reach the low-mid 70s Friday. A front will be dropping into the area Saturday but the shallow cooler air will be fighting another system that will be developing to the west over the weekend. The bottom line for now is that there will be plenty of cloud cover this weekend, the risk of showers early Saturday and then a few 
again late Sunday as the front begins to migrate back to the north. Highs on Saturday should be in the upper 60s but could be milder if the front is delayed while Sunday should be a fair bit cooler with highs in the 50s to near 60…but when fronts become stationary near the area there is always plenty of room for the forecast to bust with respect to temperatures and rain chances! Next week does look quite spring-like at least Wednesday as a deep trough will develop in the west engendering a deep south to southwest flow across the region. Therefore, expect highs in the 70s Monday through Wednesday with a healthy round of showers and storms, possibly strong to severe, by next Thursday…timing and intensity to be adjusted as we get closer. A brief shot of colder air should follow next Friday.