A strong front Saturday morning blasted through the state bringing Canadian air and gusty winds. Wind chills Saturday night are expected to dip to 23 degrees with the actual temperature running at about 34 in Lafayette. A light freeze is expected Sunday night so the plants that have bloomed in the warm weather will now be in danger. Our last average freeze day is in mid March so we still have a couple of weeks until then.
The northerly strong winds have created a low water advisory because tide levels are running at least a foot below normal. That makes it hard for ships to navigate the coast and channels. Conditions should improve by Sunday afternoon.
A good part of the Southeast has been dealing with severe weather from tornado threats to snow. We were lucky enough to only get some rain. But now we are heading into a moderate drought and our next chance of rain is not in the near future. Lafayette’s rainfall decifit is at about 6.5 inches while New Iberia’s is at 7 inches since January 1st.
Through the week temperatures will quickly warm up with all of the sunshine and lack of cold fronts. By Thursday temperatures will top out near 80! We quickly go from winter to spring-like weather in a matter of days.
Winter like temperatures will return this weekend! The last several computer model runs have been colder with the front that will reach Acadiana early Saturday morning. So our spring-like weather will come to an abrupt end with scattered showers late tonight through the pre-dawn hours. It still appears that the better dynamics for storms should stay mostly to the north and east of Acadiana with the risk of severe weather also increasing over Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle for Saturday. Nonetheless we should see scattered shower activity after midnight and generally before 8am Saturday. Lingering cloudiness and a few sprinkles will be possible through midday Saturday, but I do expect clearing for the afternoon hours. Temperatures this evening will stay in the 60s but will cool into the upper 50s to lower 60s tomorrow morning. Not much of a warm-up is expected Saturday with temperatures hovering in the mid-upper 50s to lower 60s depending on how soon the sun returns to the area. Gusty northerly winds near 18-28 mph will kick-in across the area Saturday afternoon and should stay with us through midday Sunday. Temperatures will drop into the mid-upper 30s Sunday morning with wind chills likely dipping into the mi-upper 20s. It will feel quiet winter-like! Sunny and cool conditions are expected for Sunday with highs generally in the low-mid-50s. Sunday night/Monday morning will likely a light freeze so you may want to hold off on the spring plantings until mid-week. All of next week looks dry and sunny at this point with highs getting back into the lower 60s Monday afternoon, upper 60s to near 70 for Tuesday and the low-mid 70s mid-late next week. First blush for next weekend is indicating partly cloudy, breezy and warm conditions with slight rain chances at best. Highs next weekend should be back to spring levels in the mid-upper 70s. Showers and storms could follow with the next front a week from Monday. Have a good weekend!
complicated by our coastal subsidence (sinking land). This is why coastal restoration and preservation is very important for our area…as we will have less and less of a buffer from tropical storms and hurricanes in the future. Other topics included how local NWS Offices and the National Hurricane Center are planning to better model storms surges from hurricanes on our shores…something that has become of paramount importance in our post Rita and Ike world due to our increased coastal vulnerability. Dr Lyons talked about the “Footprint of the Hurricane”. The five toes of a hurricane footprint are wind, rain, waves, water rise and tornado potential. As Dr. Lyons indicated in our interview last night on KATC (See the video at katc.com), the Saffir Simpson Scale really just relates maximum sustained winds, not size of wind field, nor surge potential, nor rainfall and or tornado potential. Plus storm categories don’t represent how long a particular area will be affected by a storm or tell you specifically how will it affect your home. Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Ike are prime examples as they all produced storm surges greater than their advertised Saffir-Simpson category at landfall. Each storm is different; speed, angle of approach to the coast and surrounding meteorological conditions can make for very different conditions. That’s why Dr. Lyons has been making a push at the Weather Channel to delineate the different threats a particular storm may present to an area. We have tried to do the same at KATC, and hopefully our coverage of Gustav and Ike where we highlighted the wind and power outage threat with Gustav and then the surge issues with Ike was useful to our viewers. On a personal note, I had the opportunity to spend dinner with Dr. Lyons last night; he is truly a sharp individual who grasps the hurricane problem in the U.S. which has really become almost more of a social issue in recent decades as we continue to build on the coast across the U.S. with and ever increasing damage potential given the same hurricane intensities and activity that we have seen over the last 5o years. Dr. Lyons also has some keen insight with respect to the insurance industry’s response over the last couple of decades…that’sanolther blog entry! Steve is also one heck of a nice guy and passionate about the information he transmits and that comes across on-air as well. He was super-accommodating for our tv schedules and for picture taking with our in-house production personnel!
Our spring-like pattern will continue over the next couple of days with breezy and warm conditions. We’ll see a sun and cloud mix tomorrow and Friday with more cloudiness during the morning hours and longer intervals of sun during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will rise into the upper 70s tomorrow afternoon and upper 70s to near 80 on Friday as gusty south winds should abate slightly Friday giving us a better opportunity for a nice warm-up. With that being said our thickness of early moring cloudiness will dictate how warm we get based on the time it takes some of that moisture to burn-off. There is a signal for lower and thicker cloud cover for Friday morning; so this could be somewhat of a wildcard. And with better low level moisture in the area Friday we could see that moisture manifest into a few pop-up showers Friday afternoon…but rain chances should stay at or below 20%. A cool front will arrive early Saturday morning with the possibility of scattered showers very early Saturday morning and perhaps a few quick light showers Saturday afternoon as cooler air begins to pour into the region. The juiciest dynamics with this front will either bypass to the north or get organized east of Acadiana so I’m not relly sold on anything more than scattered shower activity…but a few isolated storms could develop over toward Baton Rouge or New Orleans during the day Saturday. For most of Acadiana we’ll see mostly cloudy skies Saturday and then it becomes breezy and chilly for Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures will be hard-pressed to reach 60 Sunday afternoon in spite of lots of sunshine returning to the area. We could see lows dipping down into the upper 30s Monday morning but we should warm back to seasonal levels by Tuesday.
The weather was just right for Mardi Gras today with highs topping out in the upper 60s to near 70. Tonight will bring cool conditions, but not as cool as it has been with lows in the mid-50s. Tomorrow, Thursday and Friday will be characterized by late night/early morning cloudiness with clouds lifting to mostly sunny conditions during the afternoon. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid-70s and will likely be in the upper 70s to near 80 by Friday. Breezy south to southeast winds will continue each day with gusts over 20mph likely especially for Thursday and Friday. We should stay dry through Thursday but there may be a few pop-up showers by Friday afternoon. Better chances of scattered showers and possibly some thunderstorms will become more likely Saturday with the next cold front. Cooler and drier conditions will return Saturday night, Sunday and into early next week but the 70s will return for mid-lat next week…outside of a chilly 36-48 hour period late this weekend it looks like spring is about to get sprung!
Scattered showers pushed across Acadiana this afternoon with an interesting temperature spread across the area. Highs ranged mostly in the low-mid 70s but some areas to the northwest and across Central Louisiana pushed into the low-mid 80s. The showers will move out this evening with cooler drier air to arrive by morning. In between it should be mild this evening but fog could be an issue until the drier air gets here by morning. Tomorrow and Friday look nice and cool with highs in the low-mid 60s with lows dropping into the upper 30s by Friday morning. Saturday’s forecast continues to go down hill with an energetic upper level system combined with an active sub-tropical jetstream that could produce a healthy round of showers and possibly some strong storms. The big question is whether we will see enough deep return moisture before the next system gets here. If the moisture is lacking we’ll drop storms out of the wording, but I would count on a good chance of rain sometime Saturday afternoon into the evening. If there is enough robust moisture there could be the risk of strong to severe storms with wind damage and/or hail being the primary modes of any severe weather. Cool and dry conditions will return for Sunday and Monday with lows Monday morning possibly approaching the frost zone…in the mid-30s. It looks chilly and dry for Monday and for Monday night with Mardi Gras looking milder with highs in the upper 60s. I have taken rain chances out of our Fat Tuesday as it looks like the dynamics and jet-stream should stay well to the north of the area at that time. As always check back with us as the forecast always changes quickly this time of year and don’t forget to check out our special 
Acadaina will see some quick weather changes over the next few days before it settles down to nice and cool later this week. Plenty of high and mid level clouds will continue to stream into the area overnight through tomorrow. Another strong storm system in the west will traverse the Rockies tomorrow and form a low pressure system in the southern high plains Wednesday. This will induce deeper moisture and much milder conditions across Acadiana through Wednesday. So expect lots of high and mid-level clouds with a few light sprinkles through tomorrow morning. Widely scattered showers will be possible Tuesday as a warm front lifts across the area but best rain chances should stay well to the west and north of Acadiana. There could even be a few intervals of sunshine Tuesday during the afternoon. Sun or not, we should see highs reaching back into the mid-upper 60s tomorrow. 
Temperatures will stay in the 60s tomorrow night courtesy of breezy southeast to south winds late tomorrow into tomorrow night. Showers and thunderstorms will be a good bet for Wednesday with highs reaching the mid-upper 70s. But don’t get used to the warm temperatures as cooler, below normal temperatures, are expected for the latter part of the week. Another reinforcing cool front will arrive for late Saturday keeping it cool through next Monday. The front Saturday should have limited moisture so at this time I am not expecting significant rain chances. The next weather system should allow for a quick warm-up for Mardi Gras but there may be some showers…we’ll get a better feel for the big holiday weekend later this week. I would plan on rather chilly bead-catching conditions with temperatures mostly in the 40s and 50s for the evening parades.