KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

The Breaux Bridge Crawfish Festival will be heating up Friday and the weather will co-operate with us. Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy with only a 20% chance of rain. We can’t rule out a stray shower with daytime heating but not expecting anything major. Saturday drier air is still progged to move in making the heat feel just a tad bit more bearable. Sunday a front will move closer increasing rain chances especially in the evening and overnight hours. What happens after that, the computer models are having a hard time resolving. One model pushes the front through and stalls it in the Gulf. It then moves back northward as a warm front after a couple of days early next week. The other computer model doesn’t let the front get this far south and stalls it around Alexandria. Both computer models give us a chance of rain everyday next week with the best rain chances late Sunday and early Monday. We’ll have to see a couple more runs of the models to get a better idea but right now we’ll just say unsettled to begin the work week!

Drier air has moved in to the area and rain has been cut off. Through most of Wednesday skies stayed mainly clear with breezy winds. High pressure off to our east and a cold front off to our west has caused the winds to pick up again but our weather is mostly controlled by the high pressure. Only slight rain chances through the next few days into the weekend as disturbances pass to the north. Temperatures will stay in the 80s and even climbing into the upper 80s with lows in the upper 60s. As we bask in the warmth, there is still snow in some parts of the country. One viewer was nice enough to send photos of snow where his son lives in Montana. We had our glimpse of snow in  December but nothing like this!

Enjoy your week!

Scattered tropical showers and some rumbles of thunder popped up across Acadiana this afternoon in response to left over moisture from the convective complex that moved through the area late last night.  Some showers this afternoon were quite heavy particularly across the northern portions of Acadiana with a tropical funnel cloud also spotted just south of Eunice around 300pm.  This is typical of more summer like weather patterns with warm and humid conditions along with some instability allowing for rapid development of shower activity today.  Funnel clouds are a result of quick updrafts combined with cooling downdrafts from the rain.  Rarely do these funnels touch the ground but we certainly get to see more of them through the summer months when tropical moisture is most robust across the area.  Tomorrow should bring a more stable atmosphere across the region allowing for fewer showers, more sun and consequently warmer temperatures.  Right now we are going less than a 20% chance of shower for tomorrow.  While models are indicating not much shower activity there may be a slightly better chance of an afternoon storm Thursday due to a slightly more unstable atmosphere.  Rain chances should stay near 20% or less Friday and Saturday while a pattern more conducive to storm complexes and enhanced rain chances could develop late Sunday and may carry into the middle part of next week.  There are some signals that we could see rather heavy storms for next Tuesday with an approach of a frontal boundary…we’ll see how future model runs look.  Temperature-wise we will be mired in the mid-80s the rest of the week and will be creeping toward the upper 80s this weekend.

A complex of strong storms will be moving through Acadiana overnight. Through most of the day, we’ve only had isolated rain with storms dissipating as they moved across the state line. But this squall line is holding strong and looks to continue as it moves through our area. The squall has a history of producing one tornado and numerous wind and hail reports in Texas. We can expect the possibility of isolated damage as well.

By Tuesday we will have only a slight chance of isolated rain through the day as humid air surges into an area of low pressure to our north. We will miss out on a cold front with warm temperatures and a chance of rain through the week.

We’ve had a repeat of the weather for the entire week with mostly sunny skies and dry air. Toward the end the winds begin to increase as Festival International kicked off and closed but not much to worry about in the way of rain. Now a storm system and cold front is moving across the Great Plains and our high pressure continues to slide east out into the Atlantic. That front will slowly move closer then stall as we get into the work-week. It looks like the front could come to a halt around Shreveport or Alexandria by Tuesday and keep a chance of rain in the forecast everyday. Rain chances stay slight because of the lack of instability and moisture in the atmosphere. As we look ahead the Breaux Bridge Crawfish Festival, isolated rain stays in the forecast but we’ll of course keep a watch on that.

Enjoy your week!

The weather has held nicely for Festival International de Louisiane with lots of sunhine, breezy south-southeast winds and temperatures topping out in the lower 80s.  I would expect little change for this weekend although the winds could kick up another notch tomorrow, and we’ll probably see more clouds, especially during the late night and morning hours.  Rain chances will stay near 10% or less this weekend with any significant activity holding back into Texas.  A few showers and possibly some storms may eneter the area by Tuesday as a frontal boundary tries to push some instability into the region.  This may be the best chance of rain over the next week as any frontal activity will be on the retreat later in the week while high pressure in the Gulf tries to strengthen and heats us up.  In fact, toward the end of next week we may be pushing the mid-upper 80s…summer is knocking on our door!  Have a great weekend!  Rob

On this Earth Day I wanted to show you a gorgeous picture of our state that was taken earlier this month by NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite on April 7, 2009.  This image highlights the interaction between our coast and the Gulf of Mexico and the sediment that empties into the Gulf from the Pearl, the Mississippi, the Atchafalaya, Mermentau, Calacasieu and Sabine Rivers.  It shows how the turbid river water interacts with the Gulf as their sediments swirl westward.  This sediment has been flowing into the Gulf for tens of thousands of years which has built our land and wetlands.  But over the last 150 years we (us humans) have built many channels, canals and outlets to mitigate flooding and improve navigability but at the cost of increased erosion in many areas.  Add to that recent hurricanes, which have inundated many of our wetlands with salt water (you can still see the browned/burned areas from the Upper Texas coast through all of SE Louisiana) and our coastline continues to die and recede at an alarming rate.  This picture highlights the fragility of our coast and why we must make every effort to conserve it as it’s the only buffer between us and topical storm surges.  Adding to the problem, subsidence of our coastal land-it has sunk anywhere from 1-3ft over the last 80 years, and that global sea level rise will continue, even if just a little bit, we are precariously exposed to Mother Nature’s wrath…all politics and global climate change views aside…we must conserve our coast.  Rob

After a stormy Friday/Saturday the weather has certainly straightened out nicely!  Lots of sunshine will stay in the forecast over the next several days with breezy conditions re-appearing Thursday and Friday and likely staying with us through the weekend.  In addition, southerly winds off of the Gulf will usher in more lower level humidity which will translate into milder nights, some late night and early morning cloudiness, and partly cloudy skies for the afternoon hours Friday through Sunday.  Rain chances will be no higher than 10% Friday through Sunday but we can’t completely rule out an isolated sprinkle anytime from Friday through Monday…but this won’t be a deal-breaker for Festival International.  Get out and enjoy the festivities, but remember, no matter what your skin type you can get a nasty burn with our late April sun so don’t forget the sunblock and get a nice brimmed-hat for Festival.

As I mentioned last week, I was in the Bahamas for the Weather Conference and enjoyed many excellent talks from the world-wide experts on tropical weather and mitigation…do check out the video clips on the Bahamas site.  You’ll find some very interesting information and some lively presentations.  I interviewed and spent lunch with Dr. Chris Landsea with the National Hurricane Center Friday; he believes like many of us in the broadcast meteorological community, that although our climate has warmed over the last century, there is no detectable relation to any increase in tropical cyclone activity or intensity due to global warming, which contradicts what Al Gore and many other suppose: that big storms in recent years like Rita,Katrina, Gustav and Ike etc. are a result of global warming.  There is no solid evidence that supports this supposition.  I would be willing to bet however, that there will still be many press releases coming in the next couple of months from special interest groups and “other” researchers that claim global climate change is impacting hurricane intensity and frequency.  Dr. Landsea  also indicates that if there is any effect on tropical storms there may be a 2% increase in intensity by the end of this century.  So the question is can one detect the damage difference from 150mph winds to 153mph winds?  The answer is no, and that yearly variability of storms due to other natural causes and better observing of recent storms are the most likely reasons for some of the big storms the Atlantic has seen over the last few years.  Dr. Landsea is not alone in his assessment (see Drs. Klotzbach, Gray and others) and that consensus at this conference pointed to that it is more important to concentrate on the hurricane threat each and every year and what we can do to mitigate the effects of the inevitable storms to come.

Saturday night the 2nd round of storms slowly moved through Acadiana ahead of the cold front. This will be the last shot at rain for a few days. We had many reports of flooding and wind damage mainly in St. Landry parish. Eunice has a report of high water making highway 190 impassable. Also highway 182 near Opelousas flooded. A report of a tree down on highway 182 also came in. Much of the area got about 3-5 inches during the two day event. Sunday much drier air moves in behind the front and sunny weather stays in the forecast through the week.

A line of storms moved through Friday night. The main threat was heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty winds. No watches or warnings were issued for the squalls. It should all clear the area in the early morning hours of Saturday. It looks like we’ll take a break from the rain late Saturday morning but with all of this moisture in the atmosphere, another round is possible Saturday afternoon with daytime heating. Then round three is likely Saturday night into Sunday morning as the cold front finally pushes through. It’s hard to get a timing on the storms and with many outdoor activities, an eye will be kept on the radars. Models still are on track to move everything east by Sunday afternoon.