KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

The warm front out in the Gulf is lifting northward bringing with it heavy rain, winds at about 30 mph, and cloud to ground lightning. Rain chances will be on the increase overnight as the rain moistens up the atmosphere ahead of the upper level low still on track to make it here Saturday.

The main threat will be heavy rain with an estimated 2-4 inches possible. There is a bulls-eye of 5.4 inches of rain over eastern Texas and central LA. Computer models still track the rain out of Acadiana by Sunday morning with windy and cool conditions early next week. The good news is after all of this rain, dry weather is expected through all of next week!

The Bahamas Weather Conference kicked off today with Diretor of the National Hurricane Center, Bill Read, reviewing the 2008 hurricane season.  Obviously of interest was better understanding Hurricanes Gustav and Ike…which is still be discussed as we blog.  (taking notes and blogging at the same time!) Of interest coming up this afternoon will be Drs. Gray and Klotzbach’s seasonal forecast.  In addition, I will be interviewing Bill Read this afternoon and will discuss some of the new hurricane center forecast products that will be incorporated in hurricane and tropical storm forecasts.  There will be longer watch and warning lead times with hurricane and tropical storm watches extending 48 hours out instead of 36 while tropical warnings will increase from a 24 hour lead time to 36 hours which hopefully give us all better lead times when critical decisions need to made.  In addition, the NHC will be issuing a “probalistic ensemble storm surge product” that will yield better guidance on what we can expect surge-wise for every storm…look for these products during the season, but as soon as more information is posted we’ll let you know.  You can also check out Bill Read’s video discussion on the storms here or you can see all the video interviews shot so far at the Bahamas Weather Conference site….more tomorrow…Rob

Temperatures Wednesday once again reached into the mid 70s with sunny skies. Cirrus clouds have been on the increase indicating a changing weather pattern. By tomorrow high pressure slides east and southerly winds kick in. That means more moisture for clouds to develop ahead of a warm front expected on Friday. Showers and a few storms will be possible through Friday, right now a 40% chance of getting wet. Things pick up Saturday as a strong upper level low dragging a Canadian cold front moves closer. The warm front will help push more moisture in the atmosphere so when the cold front arrives we could have some heavy rain. That looks to be the main threat at this time with a possible 2-4 inches of rain area wide. Minor flooding may be an issue before all is said and done Sunday morning. The Cajun Hot Sauce Festival, the Creole Festival, and a host of other events are scheduled this weekend. And although it won’t be a total wash-out, we’ll be dodging rain. Be sure to keep an eye on the radar before heading out. Cooler temperatures expected next week with plenty of sunshine.

This year I drew the short straw and getting to attend the 2009 Bahamas Weather Conference!  There are some very interesting programs lined up for this year with all of the hurricane experts in one place for a couple of days of conferencing…and then hopefully a little surf and sun!  Check out the link to the conference above as the Bahamas website is quite informative and always entertaining, especially when it comes to Dr. Gray interviews and when global climate change is on the docket.   I am looking forward to Dr. Chris Landsea’s presentation on global climate change and the potential impact…or non-impact on the tropics.  The director of the National Hurricane Center, Bill Read, will also make a presentation regarding the Saffir-Simpson Scale which we have previously discussed with Dr. Steve Lyons of the Weather Channel who will also be in attendance.  In addition, Hurricanes Gustav and Ike will be specifically addressed, storms which we unfortunately too familiar with.  This is always a great opportunity for us broadcast meteorologists to spend some real quality time with the experts, and to top it off it’s always better in the Bahamas!  Look for video highlights on the Bahamas web-site and satellite reports from yours truly Thursday and Friday.  Rob

As alluded to in yesterday’s entry, this weekend continues to look quite wet and stormy.  This weekend will also bring a lot more in the way of rainfall potential as compared to last weekend as the pattern will be a slow mover.  The Quantatative Precicipitation Forecasts look quite wet with today’s outlook for the Friday through early Sunday output indicating the possibility of a 3-5″ rainfall between late Friday through Saturday night.  I’ve increased our rain chances for late Friday into Saturday with highest probabilties of storms coming late Friday and then again late Saturday.  Timing is still an issue this far out but once again the weekend is looking rather gloomy.  In addition, there may be the slight chance of severe weather late Friday into Saturday with highest possibilities of severe storms coming late Saturday into Saturday night.  Showers and storms should taper sometime early Sunday.  Of course back to work and school next week will be sunny and pleasant…but at least it looks rather nice through Festival International!  In the near term, nice and cool tonight, mostly sunny tomorrow with partly cloudy skies and slight rain chances are on tap for Thursday.

A nice stretch of weather is on tap for Acadiana over the next few days with breezy and cooler conditions for tonight.  Lows will be in the lower 50s by morning while plenty of sunshine brings the mercury back into the low-mid 70s for tomorrow afternoon.  Mostly sunny and mild weather will continue for Wednesday while more clouds and humidity return for Thursday.  The weather pattern looks to get quite interesting for Friday into the weekend as a large slow-moving upper level low will prime Texas for meso-convective complexes that will interact and ride eastward with the sub-tropical jet stream.  More intense storms should stay to our west Friday but we could see healthier action Saturday and possibly severe storms for both Saturday and Sunday.  Unlike yesterday, the severe weather dynamics won’t be on a large scale with activity dominated more by the thunderstorm complexes that do develop.  In the near term, enjoy the gorgeous weather over the next few days!

Nasty showers and storms pelted Acadiana this afternoon with a number reports of marble-size hail and wind gusts in the 45-55mph range.  Fortunately the squall that moved through this afternoon outran some of the very significant jet dynamics that continue to push across the area at press time.   The tornado watch has been dropped across the area but some locally heavy showers and storms will continue their trek across Acadiana this evening.  Drier, more stable air will move in the wake of this system before a cold front arrives late Monday.  Significant rain chances should end over the next few hours with very slight rain chances possible through midday Monday.  Partly to mostly sunny skies and a breezy southwest to west wind tomorrow afternoon should allow temperatures to climb into the low-mid 80s.  Cooler more pleasant conditions with plenty of sunshine are expected for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the mid-upper 70s accompanied by overnight lows in the lower 50s.  Temperatures will moderate back to near 80 Thursday with the next chance of at least scattered showers and storms arriving Friday and perhaps lasting through the weekend.  Too early to tell if there will be a severe weather risk later this week and/or next weekend…we’ll have more on that tomorrow.

Busy this afternoon…so far just hail and about 50-60mph wind gusts…seems like a tropical storm out there this afternoon!  Here’s what’s running as of 300pm….From Rob Perillo in the StormTeam3 Weather Lab…STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA…A TORNADO WATCH is in effect for all of Acadiana through 400pm…Storms will be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, torrential downpours, excessive lightning and isolated tornadoes may be possible into the evening hours…Stay with KATC for additional severe weather information or track the storms online at www.katc.com…

We are still on track for a significant severe weather threat for Acadiana Sunday and Sunday night.  The Storm Prediction Center has all of Acadiana hatched in for a slight risk of severe weather but this may get upgraded to a moderate risk depending on the evolution of our next storm system.  Although the dynamics with this weather system don’t appear as phased as they did yesterday, there are plenty of ingredients for a significant threat of tornadic/wind damaging thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into the evening hours.  I believe our in house Futurecast Model is beginning to capture the possibility of some scattered storms developing earlier Sunday as a warm front lifts to the north ahead of the main storm system.  So there may be a severe weather risk earlier in the day but this feature is far from certain, yet possible…Many of our higher-end severe weather events start this way with scattered rotating storms, and they usually get cooking here and get very nasty north and east of Acadiana.  Our models are also going for temperatures in the lower 80s Sunday afternoon which will add to our instability when the strongest jet-dynamics and atmospheric spin arrives.  Best chance of rain and storms will arrive either in the latter part of the afternoon and/or into the evening hours.  Interestingly enough there appears to be multiple upper disturbances that will “dumb-bell” around one another making timing of the greatest risk of severe storms difficult, but this event may last well into the late night.  It’s also unclear where the surface lows will develop with this system, but anywhere close and to and to the east or southeast of these lows there will likely be long-lived damaging tornado potential, especially across northern Losuiaiana, Arkansas and Mississippi.  The bottom line for us in Acadiana, expect windy and unstable conditions for Easter Sunday with excellent probabilities of one or more tornado watches for Sunday and Sunday night.  Have a happy and safe Easter weekend and know we’ll be watching it very closely and hopefully you’ll do the same with us.  Rob

A week ago in this blog I mentioned that the models were beginning to lock onto a significant chance of storms Easter Sunday…and that hasn’t changed much in the last week.  It appears the storm system this Sunday will be a big severe weather-maker across much of Eastern Texas through the Arklatex and more than likely a good portion of Louisiana.  This will likely be an “all mode” severe weather event with damaging winds, hail, isolated tornadoes and several inches of rain likely where the storms concentrate.   I wouldn’t be surprised if there will be a significant damaging tornado outbreak with this one, especially for our neighbors to the north of us.   The greatest risk of nasty storms in Acadiana will be during the latter part of the afternoon into the evening hours…but this far out give or take 6 hours would still be appropriate so storms could come later into the Sunday evening hours…stay tuned on this one as it could be one of the higher, if not highest, spring severe weather threat event.  In the near term, “unsettled” is a good descriptor for the next couple of days, but it shouldn’t be too bad.  A weakening front will arrive here tomorrow night with just a few light showers between now and Saturday expected.  Friday will likely bring mostly cloudy skies with a few intervals of sun allowing temperatures to reach into the lower 80s.  Slightly cooler conditions are possible by Saturday morning with highs closer to mid-upper 70s Saturday afternoon.  In fact our higher resolution in-house Futurecast model is indicating a fair bit of sunshine Saturday…but clouds will be rushing back in Saturday night into Sunday.  Rain chances tonight through Saturday evening will be in the 20% range or less but will increase to 30-40% Sunday morning and rocket to near 100% by either late Sunday afternoon or Sunday night.