KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

After a hot and dry weekend, it’s about time for some rain. High pressure stays with us Monday keeping it dry for one last day. It will be east of us setting up a return flow.  A cool front now working across the western states will be headed our way and will provide our next chance of rain starting on Tuesday with a better chance on Wednesday and early Thursday. Unfortunately, we won’t get any cooler temperatures but it will once again bring some drier air before the weekend. High pressure sets up again giving us sunny skies Friday through the next week. That’s what the computer models are showing now and hopefully it stays that way so it’ll be nice for the Opelousas Spice and Music Festival.

Have a great week!

The International Space Station will be flying nearly overhead tonight from about 9:12pm through 9:15pm.  Since the new solar panels have been installed there have been reports that the station briefly “flares” roughly 25 times the brightness of Venus.  Evidently the new panels are on a different plane than the other panels which should certainly add to our delight when the Space Station is visible.  I’m not sure what we will get to see but with crystal clear skies tonight and skies being completely dark (the moon should be a fair distance to the west of the transit) it should be a great view!  Look for a bright star like object in the north-northwestern sky emerging out of the Earth’s shadow heading to the east-southeast.  This will only be visible for two minutes tonight but there will be additional opportunities Saturday, Sunday and Monday evenings at different times.  You can catch future ISS (and shuttle) flybys by following NASA’s link.  In addition, you can read more about these reported “flashes/flares” and view a cool quick-time movie shot through a telescope at the spaceweather.com site.

Although the official beginning of hurricane season is Monday, mother nature just couldn’t wait as the area of low pressure of the east coast has acquired tropical characteristics.  The National Hurricane Center upgraded the low to a tropical depression this morning, and while TD#1 is no threat to land in the open Atlantic it could briefly become the first tropical storm of the season by tomorrow.  The system will then encounter much cooler water and will likely transition quickly to an extra-tropical low or even dissipate by the end of the weekend.  While this system is not a threat to anyone other than shipping interests, now is a good time to get ready for the impending season by reviewing your hurricane plans.  Download the Desktop Weather Lab so you can track the storms and get the latest watches and warnings, get your KATC Hurricane Safety Guide at any local Popeye’s Stores or here at KATC, and check out the National Weather Service’s Tropical Page and Hurricane Guide for Southwest Louisiana…great stuff here.

Meanwhile, our weather is set on cruise control for this weekend with lots of sunshine tomorrow through Monday.  Highs will be in the mid-upper 80s Friday and the upper 80s to near 90 this weekend into early next week.  Relative humidity and overnight lows will be down over the next several nights with morning lows dipping into the low-mid 60s through the weekend.  Next chance of rain could come mid-next week with a weak upper disturbance working in concert with moisture returning from the Gulf.  Rob

Thanks to a big thunderstorm cluster in the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico we busted on the rain chances today as the cirrus shield from the Gulf storms stabilized our atmosphere.  Basically the high level cirrus clouds limited the surface heating of most of the area with the exception of Central Louisiana where storms fired up nicely this afternoon.  The risk of storms will continue mainly for the northeastern parishes of Acadiana through about 900pm with activity diminishing nicely with the loss of the daytime heating factor.  Drier air courtesy of the frontal trough that we have been talking about over the last several days will move in for Thursday limiting the chance of showers and storms to isolated activity and mainly for the coastal parishes.  Mostly sunny and dry weather is expected for Friday through Monday with highs reaching near 90 while lows hopefully will cool a little bit in the mid-upper 60s beginning Friday morning.  Enjoy but look out for that sun!  Rob

Some hefty showers and storms are moving through the area this evening associated with an upper disturbance that has been rolling out of Texas this afternoon.  The storms this evening will be capable of producing gusty winds and some small hail over the next couple of hours but the activity will likely die down by 10pm tonight.  Another round of hefty storms will be likely tomorrow, especially during the afternoon with activity quite possibly lasting into the evening and perhaps the overnight hours as an upper trough and a weak front approaches for Thursday.  Lingering showers and storms may persist through Thursday but drier air courtesy the aforementioned trough will be filtering in yielding mostly sunny and dry conditions for Friday into the weekend.  The pattern appears to stay hot and mostly dry through mid-next week with just a slight chance of an afternoon shower.  Highs will stay in the mid-80s over the next few days while lows hold in the lower 70s.  The humidity will stay with us through Thursday but should decrease nicely for the weekend.  Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to 90 behind the front this weekend (notice I didn’t call it a cool front!) but at night we should drop into the comfortable mid-60s…so something to look forward to there!  Rob

Warm and humid weather will continue into the mid-week with afternoon showers and thunderstorms fairly likely today and again tomorrow.  A cool front will move into the area late Wednesday into Thursday ushering in some somewhat drier air, therefore the rain chances will drop off for the weekend.  Temperatures will still be warm, but lower humidities will make it more comfortable, and overnight lows may drop back into the 60s.  The upcoming weekend weather looks much better than the holiday weekend that is now in the rear view mirror. 

Hurricane season is less that a week away, and models show mostly quiet conditions for the next two weeks.  The low that moved onto the coast this past weekend was being watched as a possible pre-season system, is now in central Missouri bringing scattered rain and thunderstorms.

Although the weekend didn’t go as expected as the core of the widespread showers and storms with last week’s Gulf low did most of it’s damage in Mississippi and Arkansas where flooding and a couple of fatalities were reported.  I didn’t get many complaints about our weather however (well I did get one nasty email) that rain coverage was less than expected for Saturday and Sunday.  And as I mentioned last week, the forecast was full of uncertainty when dealing with a tropical/hybrid low under a weak steering currents.  We continue to be under the influence of that remnant low across Arkansas with scattered showers and storms spiraling counter-clockwise from the low and drifting southeast across the area late this afternoon.  Tomorrow slightly drier and more stable air should move in knocking our rain chances down to 30%, but there will still be some activity tomorrow afternoon but about half of the amount that most of us saw today.  It looks like an upper disturbance rolling out of Texas tomorrow night and Wednesday should enhance the chance of storms Wednesday but then more stable air begins to move back into the region for Thursday followed by substantially drier and more stable weather for Friday into the weekend.  That means highs will climb into the upper 80s to near 90 later this week into the weekend while lows drop a little into the mid-upper 60s.  Highs in the near term through Thursday will be dictated by clouds and the chance of rain so they should be confined to the mid-80s with plenty of humidity at least through Wednesday.  At least we should see a break in the humidity later this week and hopefully for the weekend too!

The weather story of the weekend has been the cloudy skies, humidity, and occasional rain. All thanks to the low that moved inland near Mobile Saturday morning, spinning rain across the region. By Sunday night the low was in central Arkansas moving toward Oklahoma. High pressure off to the east has pushed the low in that direction but a trough will turn the low more north easterly over the Ohio Valley over the next few days. Rain chances will remain high through Memorial Day as the low keeps it unsettled. Then as it moves away from us, we’ll return to a more typical pattern of daytime heating storms firing up each day until a cool front passes late in the week.

Also the space shuttle Atlantis landed safely in California and is being transported back to the Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Read more on the NASA website.

The National Hurricane Center has increased the possibility of the low out in the Gulf becoming a tropical depression before moving inland. The low is still expected to move into the Alabama coast and whether it turns tropical or not, heavy rain and gusty winds are expected. What makes the low tropical? If the storms and maximum wind become more concentrated near the center of low pressure and the core of the low warms from the water, it is a tropical low. If it is elongated and the winds are strong due to a pressure gradient and the core of the low has cool tempertaures, it’s non tropical. If it stays over warm water long enough it could warm and contract becoming tropical. There has been an increase in storms near the center so Hurricane Hunters may fly into the storm by noon Saturday to take some measurements of the storm. If they find sufficient winds and pressure they will upgrade the storm and start issuing warnings.  Water temperatures need to be at least 80 degrees for the low to become tropical and it’s about 76 degrees now.

Through the weekend we can expect bands of rain, enhanced by daytime heating off and on both Saturday and Sunday. By Memorial Day the low will be north of us but an unstable atmosphere and sufficient moisture will still give us good chances of rain. If you plan to travel east, expect a wet weekend

Kari

A Non-Tropical low pressure area is moving WNW across the Gulf of Mexico.  As of early this morning the low was about 300 miles due south of Mobile, Alabama.  It will continue on a WNW track moving inland over the southeastern part of Louisiana.  Offshore conditions will be rough with a small craft advisory in effect for areas beyone 20 nautical miles from the coast.  Scattered showers and afternoon storms may move across the area later today.  As the low moves inland tomorrow, rain chances will increase.  Saturday expect occasional rain and a few storms.  Rainfall totals will be heavier to the east from New Orleans to Florida.  Sunday the low will be heading into northern Mississippi, therefore the rain chances will go down slightly, and by Memorial Day scattered afternoon showers and storms will occur.  Hotter weather is expected to move back in for the middle part of next week. 

By the way NOAA issued their 2009 Hurricane Season Prediction, calling for a near normal hurricane season.  They are expecting 9-14 named storms, normal is about 10.  Seven to nine of those will become hurricanes, normal is 6.  NOAA also expects 1-3 of those hurricanes to be major (Category 3 or higher), normal is about 2.  They say there is a 50% chance that the season will be normal, only a 25% chance that it will be more active than normal, and also a 25% chance that we will see less than normal activity in 2009.  Here is the website www.noaa.gov

Have a great weekend! 

BAKER