KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Drier, more comfortable air continues to filter into the region while we are still monitoring the tropics.  The frontal boundary that slowly passed through the area over the last several days has moved offshore and will likely become stationary through mid-week.  Lower humidity and slightly cooler conditions will be with us through Wednesday with highs staying in the mid-upper 80s while lows drop into the very comfortable mid-60s.  Lows Tuesday night into Wednesday morning may even drop into the lower 60s!  The respite from heat and humidity will end later this week with higher humidity and slight rain chances possibly returning as early as Friday.  Another upper disturbance will roll in from the northwest toward the area this weekend into early next week drawing tropical moisture back from the Gulf and engendering scattered daytime showers and storms.  Deeper tropical moisture, higher rain chances and maybe some Gulf developments will be possible later next week into the following weekend.

Speaking of the tropics, we are monitoring a disturbance (94l) that is east of the Windward Islands.  Last night and early this morning it looked like it was ready to go, but a distinct surface circulation has not been detectable via satellite imagery so far, and this afternoon there has been some shearing/inhibiting upper winds over the storm canopy.  A hurricane hunter is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow.  Tropical and global models are split into three camps: 1-a weak barely detectable system moving west-northwestward, 2-a tropical storm or weak hurricane that moves west-northwestward and then recurves in the open Atlantic, and then, 3-a significant hurricane that may stay just south of the main Caribbean Island chain.  Somewhere in betweenthese scenarios lies the truth, but exactly what, time will tell.  Meanwhile I would also look for some weak low pressure development along the aforementioned front in the extreme northeastern Gulf of Mexico.  While upper level winds will be not favorable for true tropical development it could stay quite wet for parts of Florida mid-late this week.  Farther down the road the longer range models have been showing monsoonal “troughiness” developing over the western Gulf of Mexico later next week into the following weekend.  I am not sure if the model is capturing remnant moisture from Hurricane Jimena or developing something completely different…but the bottom line is that pressures look low in the Gulf and tropical moisture looks to surge mid-late next week…so something may be up soon.  Whether it’ll will be disturbance 94l or something else, we are heading into the meat and potatoes of hurricane season.  Finally, Hurricane Jimena this afternoon was sporting 155mph winds and will likely weaken a bit before it directly threatens Cabo San Lucas, the entire Mexican Peninsula, the northwest Mexican coastline, ultimately bringing the threat of heavy rains to the US desert southwest including Arizona this weekend.

Great weather is moving in as we speak!  Lower humidities are riding in on northeasterly breezes this morning and it looks like the fine weather should hang around for at least the early part of the week.  We’re still seeing some storms over the coastal waters this morning, but those will continue to roll farther south during the day.  We’ll start out with partly cloudy skies this morning, and skies should be mostly clear by late this afternoon.   Temperatures will stay in the upper 80s today, with lows dropping into the mid 60s tonight.  We might see a few locations over the northern fringe of Acadiana dropping into the low 60s believe it or not.  By the way the record low at New Iberia for tomorrow is 66, so we might get at least a tie there tomorrow morning! 

Labor Day weekend is coming up and humidity levels will rise by then.  A few isolated showers and storms will be popping up over the weekend with temperatures back to near 90 and overnight lows back in the low 70s.

We’re watching a couple of areas over the tropics this morning.  One disturbance we’ve been watching since Friday might have a chance for becoming the next tropical depression later today.  94L is located east of the Leeward Islands and is looking much more impressive on the satellite imagery this morning.  Computer models over the weekend had a large number of different solutions for this disturbance with some pushing it into the Caribbean, others drifting it northward into the mid Atlantic.  With the large differences in the model data, it’s hard to forecast anything accurate for the near future.  September is the busiest month for hurricane development, so be on the look out!

Speaking of September.  September 1st, tomorrow, is the anniversary of Hurricane Gustav striking the Louisiana coastline.  We’re all too familiar with Gustav as it crossed the Acadiana area bringing Category 1-2 winds and heavy rains.  Gustav also created some miserable conditions for the inland areas from Baton Rouge to Alexandria.  Winds increased in localized areas thanks the the friction generated as Gustav interacted with land.  Power outages lasted for weeks for many areas north of US 190.  Gustav prompted over 1/3 of all Louisiana residents to evacuate their homes!

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am!

Scattered daytime showers and storms will likely stay with us through Sunday with lingering rain chances possible during the overnight hours as a series of frontal troughs slowly work through the region.  We have been quite busy in the Weather Lab this week as we have been training a “new” weekend meteorologist who will debut with us September 5th…well really not a debut, as he is a familiar face returning to Acadiana and KATC!  But that is the reason why I have been limited on my blog entries of late.  Back to our weather forecast…plan on a good chance of scattered storms both Saturday and Sunday with cooler, drier air moving in for early-mid next week.  Highs this weekend will be in the upper 80s to near 90 while overnight lows stay in the sticky low-mid 70s.  But Monday through at least next Wednesday will bring in sunny skies, lower humidity with highs in the upper 80s while overnight lows drop into the mid-60s…something to look forward to!  The longer range projections will usher in higher humidity and eventually what appears to be a wide-open tropical conduit of moisture beginning next weekend but not getting fully established until the following week.  It will certainly get more interesting with what appears to be another developing tropical system in the mid-tropical Atlantic as this next one may go on a more southerly route and be traveling with the lower level flow of winds and weather which could be toward the Gulf.  Hopefully the upper level wind shear associated with El Nino stays established across the Caribbean, but there is no guarantee on that.  During most El Nino tropical seasons there are a few weeks where the shear is lower or diminishes…hopefully not in the next 7-10 days however, but I wouldn’t count on that.  Have a good weekend!  Rob

I’m actually surprised that Danny has maintained tropical storm status as of this posting.  Most of the overnight and the early part of today Danny has been in pieces.  The main circulation at the surface, and the individual area of rain associated with Danny.  The problem is, those two pieces are about 100 miles apart!  When I saw the early visible satellite imagery today you can clearly see the swirl of low clouds that is pinpointed by the coordinates.  But the more impressive storms and the bulk of the cloud cover is displaced to the northwest.  All of this is thanks to an upper level low pressure area that is spinning over the southeastern part of the United States.  Recon data also showed that the tropical storm force winds are within the storms, but not near the center of circulation.  But, as of the last advisory which came down at 10am, Danny still remains a tropical storm.  If he’s lucky he’ll hold on as a minimal storm as it passes by the North Carolina coast, but after that it won’t have much of a chance to strengthen.  It will be rapidly pulled northward, then northeastward, into the colder waters of the North Atlantic.  Some fringe effects will probably be felt along the East Coast, but I’m not anticipating Danny to make hurricane status.  If Danny stays this disorganized, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the official status dropped back to Tropical Depression.

Another wave about half way across the Atlantic looks about the same as yesterday, and there still is a marginal chance that it will develop over the next couple of days.  Most computer models do develop something out there and initial tracks head it basically in the same direction as Danny and its big brother Bill.

Over the weekend we will be running a rain chance of about 30-40%.  So far this morning we’ve seen most of the action over Texas.  A new line of storms has developed from Lake Charles to the offshore waters.  It’s crawling along to the east.  A few isolated pop up storms have dotted Evangeline, Allen, Jefferson Davis, and Acadia Parishes too.  I would expect a few more storms to pop up as we get into the afternoon, and hopefully the convection will taper off once the sun goes down.  There’s a lot of football going on tonight…rain makes for an interesting and messy game, but it’s not so much fun for the fans.  And if there’s lightning, then nobody plays.  Keeping the fingers crossed that most of the storms die out by football time, or at the very least, the lightning.

Saturday and Sunday we’ve got a front that will stall over central Louisiana.  This will keep things warm and humid, with chances for midday and afternoon storms.  Another cold front that is currently passing through the great plains will push southward by Sunday afternoon and clear everything out.  Drier air will move back in and the forecast looks very comfortable for Monday and Tuesday.  So the borderline “football weather” will be coming in a couple of days late.  Sorry folks.  Have a great weekend!

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am!

Yesterday was an off day in the WeatherLab.  It was an off day for every meteorologist within a 100 mile radius of Lafayette for that matter.  Sometimes things change so quickly that the only way to forecast is to “nowcast”.  Wednesday was one of those days.  I predicted sunshine, and by the afternoon a large part of Acadiana was being rained on.

Normally during the month of August we’ll have at least a 20% in the forecast every single day.  That’s because it’s humid, it’s hot, and usually just the heat of the day is enough energy to get a few storms going during the afternoon.  But over the last couple of days, with a cool front passing through, the air mass had been very dry.  The dry air also allowed us to experience unusual temperatures in the low to mid 60s at night.  But there was a sharp contrast.  Only about 100 miles to our west was the front, and the humidity levels skyrocketed once you were west of Beaumont.  Along that boundary, the storms continued to fire Monday and Tuesday, and seemed to be remaining there.

Wednesday morning brought more of the same.  Dry air over Acadiana, storms that were dissipating over east Texas along the front, and pushing toward the Gulf.  The pattern was nearly identical to the weather pattern we saw early in the week.  But there was something lurking in the dry air over Mississippi.  We call it a Vort Max.  The technical term is Vorticity Maximum.  Basically this is a small spin in the atmosphere usually generated by larger systems surrounding it.  If you’ve ever paddled a canoe, you’ve seen something similar in the water.  When you pull the paddle, you will notice smaller swirls rotating around the main area of water that was disturbed by the paddle. 

These Vort Max’s can be seen sometimes on water vapor satellite imagery, and they can also be seen in the radiosonde data from the morning and evening weather balloon launches from various NWS offices around the country.  Once they’re in the computer model formula, then the effect they will have on an area can be analyzed.  But like the swirls off the canoe paddle, they’re moderately unpredictable, and don’t last very long.  If they’re not seen, or the life cycle is too short, then the models, satellites, and meteorologists will base a forecast as if it wasn’t there.  This was the case on Wednesday.  Click on each image below for the timeline and a description of what happened.

7pm Tuesday

10pm Tuesday

1am Wednesday

 

4am Wednesday

7am Wednesday

10am Wednesday

12pm Wednesday

2pm Wednesday

So we’re not 100%.  There is an off day every once in a while.  Occasionally we have to bite the bullet, but that’s the name of the game when it comes to weather.  I did hear from a few of you and your disappointment.  But at least I know you’re out there, and you are listening to what Rob and I think is going to happen.  I know if it had worked out the other way…predicting rain and then it was sunny…I wouldn’t have heard from any of you.  At least this busted forecast brought all of us together.

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am!

Early indications from reconnaissance aircraft suggest that our tropical disturbance north of Puerto Rico has become Tropical Storm Danny.  The first advisory for our fourth named storm of the 2009 season was issued just before 10am.  It shows Danny near 24.9N 70.3W or about 450 miles East of Nassau.  Winds are sustained at 45mph, and it is moving toward the WNW @ 18 mph.  The initial forecast keeps the center of the storm to the East of the Bahamas, tomorrow and Friday.  Then strengthening is forecast with Danny possibly becoming a hurricane by Saturday morning.  By that time it is expected to be within 100 miles of the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  Danny will then cruise toward the northeast possibly grazing the New England coastline and the Canadian Provinces of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland similar to the track of Hurricane Bill just a week ago.  Danny is forecast to be weaker than Bill, but large waves, erosion, and rip currents could plague the beaches once again.  Those conditions claimed two lives last week, a 54 year old swimmer in Florida, and a 7 year old who was swept away by high waves on a cliff at Acadia National Park in Maine.

Back here at home, some surprise early morning thunder showers appeared on the radar over Allen, Evangeline, and Jeff Davis Parishes.  Last night some severe storms over eastern Texas died out throwing an outflow boundary toward Louisiana.  An outflow boundary is created when a thunderstorm collapses.  The cold air at the top of the storm falls to the surface because cold air is heavier and more dense than warm air.  When it reaches the ground it goes outward creating a miniture cold front.  That can scoop up warm moist air and dig out another round of storms.  These storms were also aided by a very small rotation spinning in the mid levels of the atmosphere coming in from the northeast.  These rains lasted for a couple of hours this morning and all rains have dissipated as of 10am.

As humidity levels increase over the next couple of days, thunderstorm activity will be better supported during the afternoon.  Thursday, expect the storms to remain just west of the Acadiana area,  Friday everything should remain west of the I-49 & US 90 corridor.  By the weekend I think we can expect about a 30% coverage area wide.  The front is scheduled to stall over central Louisiana over the weekend, but a bit of a pattern change in the upper levels still might send the front through and into the Gulf early Monday.  Still keeping my fingers crossed that some relatively dry air will filter in again by Tuesday.

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am!

Nice and dry weather will continue over the next several days as a healthy upper low continues to spin across the region.  This upper low will ultimately move to the east as another frontal trough approaches for the weekend.  So until then we’ll see fair to partly cloudy skies with comfortable humidity and low rain chances.  Tropical moisture will start to return by Thursday night into Friday with increasing humidity and some rain chances to follow for Friday afternoon.  The next frontal trough will move in for the weekend, but this time around it appears to stall across the area.  Scattered daytime showers and storms will therefore be in the forecast this weekend and will likely stay with us into next week.  In the tropics, Hurricane Hunters did not find a closed circulation with the disturbance north of Puerto Rico but it has been looking better on satellite imagery toady while upper level winds could become more favorable for some development over the next few days.  This system should stay an Atlantic system but could threaten a could part of the East Coast later this week and into the weekend.

Another beautiful morning in Acadiana as temperatures dropped into the 6os again for the third night in a row.  Skies are remaining clear, and with abundant sunshine today, temperatures should be able to reach the 90 degree mark.  Humidity levels are still pretty low for today.  Wednesday and Thursday we’ll feel the increase in moisture, making it feel more like late August, and by Friday we might even be able to see a few showers or storms by the afternoon.  Over the weekend another front will work southward and slowly creep across Louisiana Sunday.  Another dip in the jet stream should give the front a shove, pushing it offshore by Monday.  The early part of next week looks to be dry once again, and maybe a few early mornings with lows in the 60s.  I checked some of the extended models and it looks like we might see a couple more fronts going through or coming close over the next two weeks.  An early fall???  I certainly hope so!  Those troughs help to keep any Atlantic tropical weather over the water!

Speaking of the Atlantic, two areas of disturbed weather to talk about this morning.  The wave near the Virgin Islands was officially designated as “92L” yesterday.  Another wave “93L”  was bringing rain to Central America.  93L is moving inland over Nicaragua and Costa Rica this morning and will continue drifting westward across land.  I think it has a better chance for development when it reaches the Pacific Ocean. 

92L now has a better than 50% chance for development.  We talked a little about this wave yesterday as it was interacting with an upper level low (ULL) pressure area just west of the disturbance.  That ULL is still there and taking it’s toll for now.  Wind shear values there are over 20 knots, but is forecast to weaken tomorrow.  Also a surface circulation appears to be developing farther away from the ULL, therefore over the next 24 hours we might see development here.  Air Force Reconnaissance are scheduled to fly out there this afternoon to investigate.  Of course if they find something it will either be Tropical Depression #5 or Tropical Storm Danny.  The trough that steered Bill away from the U.S. is still there and most models steer this disturbance in the same direction.  A couple of models push it close to the Carolina coastline, but right now it’s too early to tell since the models are trying to forecast something that essentially isn’t there yet. 

If Danny develops, it will be my 4th Danny since I’ve been in the weather biz.  Danny in 2003 was a Category 1 hurricane spinning aimlessly in the Atlantic.  1997’s Danny was my first “hands on” hurricane experience.  It was a minimal Category 1 hurricane at landfall with winds of 80mph.  I was on location on the Alabama/Florida state line near Killian, Alabama when then eye went over.  It was the middle of the night the sky cleared out briefly to display the nearly full moon.  1991s Danny drifted across the Atlantic only making Tropical Storm Status.  The first Danny was a Category 1 hurricane that struck the Louisiana coastline on the Vermilion/Cameron Parish line during the early morning hours of August 15, 1985!  I missed that one, I was still in high school.  Hey Rob??  How about you old timer?  Danny IV or Danny V?

 “Danny” is one of those survivors on the lists of hurricane names.  It’s been there since Hurricane David was retired in 1979.  David was a “Cape Verde” type of storm that intensified over the northern Caribbean sea and reached Category 5 strength.  It slammed onto the southern coast of the Dominican Republic near the capitol of Santo Domingo with winds of 125 mph, and winds over 150mph in the eastern part of the country.  It killed over 2,000 with it’s winds and flooding.  Some villages in the mountainous areas were wiped off the map from the flooding and mudslides.  Later it moved through the Bahamas, clipped Florida near Vero Beach, and then a final landfall south of Savannah, Georgia.  Flooding occurred over the Carolinas, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, and Delaware.

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am!

65 Degrees!!!  Yes, 65 degrees earlier this morning!  We haven’t seen 65 degrees since June 7th, and that was an unusual cold front too!   Not a record by any means, but what a nice break from what is normally the part of summer we dread most! 

It’s the time of year where the kids go back to school, football is returning, and the body clock starts saying, “Hey, where’s the first blast of Fall?”  It’s the time of year where we’ve already suffered through three full months of heat and humidity, and the brain knows we still have a long month of September to go before the chances for “cool” really improve!  The kids will be smiling at the bus stop this morning, even though it’s a Monday.  Hopefully you were able to enjoy the first shot of this weather while you were off on Sunday!

It appears the dry weather will last at least through Tuesday and maybe into Wednesday.  By Thursday and Friday, humidity levels will climb back to normal values, and afternoon rain chances should return by the weekend.  Right now I don’t think we’ll be seeing rain chances like last week, just normal afternoon pop up showers and storms with that 20-30% coverage.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Bill was downgraded to a tropical storm earlier this morning.  It has lost much of its tropical characteristics.  It is now more of a “cold core” subtropical storm.  It will continue to weaken as it moves over the colder waters of the north Atlantic.  Yesterday it grazed the New England coastline, and drifted over parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.  Rough seas battered the East Coast this weekend.  So far I’ve heard two deaths are blamed on Bill, both of those in the rough surf.

We have a tropical wave nearing the Leeward Islands.  There is a strong upper level keeping it from developing into anything.  That should be the inhibiting factor there as it drifts off toward the WNW.  Right now there is less than a 30% chance for this to develop over the next two days.  Farther out there is a stronger tropical wave that is currently moving off the coast of Africa.  It looked more intense on satellite imagery yesterday.  This morning the storminess and cloud cover has lessened, but many computer models do develop this wave over the next couple of days.  Initial track looks very similar to Hurricane Bill, but we’re still pretty early in the game.  The remainder of the tropical Atlantic looks quiet this morning.  Enjoy the beautiful day!  –Baker

StormTeam3 Meteorolgist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekday Mornings 5-7am!

Lower dewpoints moved in across Acadiana today behind the cold front. It’s been a while since we had the clear, blue skies and it was a much welcomed change. High pressure to our north will continue to give us northerly winds. As it shifts east, winds will turn more easterly then southeasterly but the start of the work-week. Computer models hint at a disturbance late next week that will increase our rain chances. But it will stay clear until then.

Enjoy the sunshine!