Early indications from reconnaissance aircraft suggest that our tropical disturbance north of Puerto Rico has become Tropical Storm Danny. The first advisory for our fourth named storm of the 2009 season was issued just before 10am. It shows Danny near 24.9N 70.3W or about 450 miles East of Nassau. Winds are sustained at 45mph, and it is moving toward the WNW @ 18 mph. The initial forecast keeps the center of the storm to the East of the Bahamas, tomorrow and Friday. Then strengthening is forecast with Danny possibly becoming a hurricane by Saturday morning. By that time it is expected to be within 100 miles of the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Danny will then cruise toward the northeast possibly grazing the New England coastline and the Canadian Provinces of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland similar to the track of Hurricane Bill just a week ago. Danny is forecast to be weaker than Bill, but large waves, erosion, and rip currents could plague the beaches once again. Those conditions claimed two lives last week, a 54 year old swimmer in Florida, and a 7 year old who was swept away by high waves on a cliff at Acadia National Park in Maine.
Back here at home, some surprise early morning thunder showers appeared on the radar over Allen, Evangeline, and Jeff Davis Parishes. Last night some severe storms over eastern Texas died out throwing an outflow boundary toward Louisiana. An outflow boundary is created when a thunderstorm collapses. The cold air at the top of the storm falls to the surface because cold air is heavier and more dense than warm air. When it reaches the ground it goes outward creating a miniture cold front. That can scoop up warm moist air and dig out another round of storms. These storms were also aided by a very small rotation spinning in the mid levels of the atmosphere coming in from the northeast. These rains lasted for a couple of hours this morning and all rains have dissipated as of 10am.
As humidity levels increase over the next couple of days, thunderstorm activity will be better supported during the afternoon. Thursday, expect the storms to remain just west of the Acadiana area, Friday everything should remain west of the I-49 & US 90 corridor. By the weekend I think we can expect about a 30% coverage area wide. The front is scheduled to stall over central Louisiana over the weekend, but a bit of a pattern change in the upper levels still might send the front through and into the Gulf early Monday. Still keeping my fingers crossed that some relatively dry air will filter in again by Tuesday.
StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker
Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am!