KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

As Dave indicated in the last blog entry we have entered into a progressive weather pattern with quick changes anticipated over the next several days.  High pressure is already sliding to the east allowing for a weak return-flow from the Gulf of Mexico, especially across western portions of Acadiana.  It should still be a pleasant one tonight with temperatures dropping into the low-mid 60s.  Tomorrow will bring mostly sunny skies early with partly cloudy skies during the afternoon.  The relative humidity will be increasing along with the afternoon temperatures courtesy of southerly winds.  Highs will reach back into the mid-upper 80s while a few widely scattered showers may be possible late tomorrow afternoon mainly in western sections of Acadiana.  The risk of showers and storms will ramp up dramatically toward daybreak Friday as the next front comes barreling toward the area but hits the brakes as it drops toward the coast.  Highest rain chances should be confined to the morning hours per the latest model runs which have been remarkably consistent over the last two days.  So Downtown Alive and Friday Night Football should be in good shape.  It’s worth mentioning that there may be the threat of severe storms along this front across the northern part of the state so we’ll keep an eye out for this per the Storm Prediction Center.  Saturday should be another nice and pleasant day, but models are showing the front lingering right along the coast so some high cloudiness may stay especially across coastal sections.  The front will march back northward Sunday engendering the chance of scattered showers and storms for Sunday afternoon.  Next week looks warm, humid and unsettled with rain chances until the next front makes a run which may not be until Friday of next week.

Yeah, yesterday’s forecast was a bit of a bust.  I was expecting the clouds to clear and sunshine was supposed to be abundant for the afternoon.  Instead we had a mix of sun and clouds for the northern parts of Acadiana, and considerable cloudiness over areas south of I-10.  Unfortunately there were also showers that developed over coastal sections of  Cameron and Vermilion parishes.  This was caused by an upper level disturbance that was riding along the front and moved eastward over the coastal sections.  That piece of energy is now well to the east of the area, and we’ve been left with clear skies today.  Therefore sunshine should prevail today, and temperatures will remain comfortable.

The next system is already taking shape out to the west, and the weather pattern will be moving along over the next week or so.  We’ve kind of gotten used to systems getting stuck, but with the advance of the fall season, we should start to see the jet stream getting more progressive, so the fronts will be moving faster and farther as we head toward winter.  So enjoy today, because the transition day will be Thursday.  Expect a decent southerly breeze, more humidity, and a slight chance for a shower late in the day.  Friday as the next front barrels through, we’ll see thunderstorms developing early in the day.  There might be some severe weather well to the north of the area, but areas of brief heavy rain will move through.  The front will be moving along pretty quickly, so don’t expect the rain to last long.  By Friday evening we should clear out, Saturday is looking great.  The pattern will continue to stay progressive though, so a quick return flow is setting up for Sunday, and we might see some showers developing again late in the weekend. 

Next week things slow down again, so warm and humid weather is forecast Monday through Wednesday.  Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s, and there will be chances for afternoon showers each day.  Another front might move in by the end of the week, so the Festival et Creoles forecast might be more fall like.

Fortunately, tropical weather has been very quiet for the month of September.  Except for a tropical depression that fired up for a short time last weekend, we only saw two named systems during the month of September.  Tropical Storm Erika born September 1st, and Major Hurricane Fred over the eastern Atlantic fired up on September 7th lasting through the 12th.  Normally we see four named storms over the Atlantic Basin during the month of September, two of those become hurricanes, with one or two becoming major.  So we ran about 50% of normal this year. 

So far this year just the extreme northeastern Caribbean has been clipped by two named systems, Ana weakened to a depression before moving in, and Erika was briefly a tropical storm near the Virgin Islands.  The Gulf has only produced one short lived tropical storm, Claudette.  It made landfall over the Florida panhandle early August 17th with 50mph winds.  The rest of the activity was over the Atlantic.  The only hurricane making landfall was Bill.  Grazing Nova Scotia, then crossing over the extreme southeastern tip of Newfoundland.

During October, Cape Verde Season shuts down.  Tropical development usually happens over the Western Atlantic, the Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico.  The most likely areas to be hit in October are Cuba, the Yucatan, and Florida. 

Hurricane Lili October 2002

We’ve seen October hurricanes in Acadiana, Lili being the most recent back in 2002.  As far as I could find, Louisiana has been hit with8 hurricanes and 5 tropical storms in October since 1860.  That comes out to about an 8% chance of a named storm hitting during that month.  After October 15th, that chance drops to less than 1%.  That’s during normal years, not El Nino years.  Hilda in 1964 was the strongest at landfall, Lili was the strongest overall but weakened before hitting land.  Hurricane Juan is the latest on record, striking Morgan City on October 29, 1985.  No hurricanes, tropical storms, or depressions have hit Louisiana in November.  Since this is an El Nino year, I figure in about two weeks, we’ll be done with hurricane season in Louisiana.  We’re probably done already.

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am!

weather@katctv.com

We are still on track to get into the upper 50s by morning with a sunny and pleasant Wednesday on tap.  Temperatures probably won’t be as cool Wednesday night/Thursday morning and will be a little milder, but still nice, in the lower 60s.  A return flow from the Gulf will initiate Thursday with warmer temperatures and increased high cloud cover.  Another quick moving front will likely bring a round of scattered showers and storms by Friday morning.  This front will probably have active severe weather associated with it mostly well north of the area but some hefty storms may work their way into northern Louisiana.  Timing of the precipitation gets it through here by mid-Friday afternoon with drier conditions likely for Friday night.  Saturday should be a repeat of Wednesday with sunny and pleasant conditions.  Once again the return flow kicks back in for Sunday while next week looks void of significant fronts, but there will be plenty of humidity, a return to summer like temperatures and the risk of scattered showers and storms at least through next Wednesday.  In the near-term enjoy the breath of fresh air Wednesday morning!  Rob

Finally the push of dry, cool air we’ve been waiting six months for!  The front sure took its time yesterday.  I was hoping to feel at least a bit of the cool last night, but I hit the sack before it arrived.  But this morning a nice breeze from the north and slightly cooler conditions welcomed me as I left the house.  So far we’ve dropped into the upper 60s. 

There are a few scattered clouds still left over from the front, these clouds will dissipate later today giving way to mostly sunny skies.  Low humidity will make it very comfortable, and cool air will continue to flow in from the north.  So even with full sunshine, temperatures will only reach the lower 80s today. 

Tonight under clear skies, most of the region except for the coastal areas should drop back into the upper 5os.  We haven’t seen 50 degree temperatures since mid May.  Temperatures will be a bit warmer Thursday morning thanks to increased humidity ahead of the next front approaching Friday.

Friday we’ll see another chance for thunderstorms with another passing front.  It looks like the front will move through into the coastal waters and stall on Saturday.  So a few lingering rain chances will be with us until Saturday afternoon.  Sunday looks hot and humid, and next week looks summer like again.

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am!

weather@katctv.com

Acadiana can expect a nice fall preview for mid-week with sunny and plesant conditions expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Daytime highs will drop into the low-mid 80s with much more comfortable humidity.  More importantly overnight lows should drop into the mid 60s tonight and upper 50s to lower 60s for Wednesday and Thursday mornings.  The cool weather will be short-lived however with a return flow from the Gulf re-establishing for Thursday with a good chance of storms shaping-up for Friday with another front.  The next front may run out of gas and become nearly stationary across the area so lingering rain chances may be possible through the weekend.  The longer range pattern into early next week is indicating a return to summer-like temperatures with highs reaching back into the upper 80s to near 90 with the chance of scattered storms.  Also I would like to thank Blair Hebert for forwarding the lovely stitched sunrise picture taken in Loreauville yesterday morning. Pretty cirro-stratus clouds riding the sub-tropical jet-stream with gravity wave perturbations making for a nice pattern!

Finally it appears that Acadiana will see it’s first “real” taste of fall starting tonight!  As of early this morning the front was located along the Arkansas/Louisiana line heading southeast.  The bulk of the cold air will still be pushing farther to the east, but the lowest temperatures since mid May might be here early Wednesday morning!

The upper 3/4 of the atmosphere is very dry, which is why we’re seeing clear skies this morning.  All of the moisture is confined to the bottom, (where we stand) and the humidity is still pretty high.  Temperatures will climb to the lower 90s today ahead of the front with the heat index approaching 100.  There may be one or two pop up storms along the front, but the most of the air is starved for moisture, so I’ll run with 20% on the rain chance as the front moves through.  But by late this afternoon, you will feel the north breeze and the drier air moving in.  By the early evening most of Acadiana will be feeling it too as the front moves offshore.  Under clear skies tonight, lows will hit the mid 60s!

Tuesday will be sunny and pleasant!  Highs will be running a couple of degrees below normal.  Normal high for Tuesday is 86, normal low is 65.  We’ll run in the low 80s with low humidity.  Tuesday night into Wednesday morning lows across the majority of the region will fall into the 50s.  60s will linger along the coastline.  Wednesday will be sunny and pleasant again.

By Thursday, humidity will return again ahead of the next front, and by Friday with the front moving in, showers and thunderstorms should return.  Saturday and Sunday’s forecast is a little more difficult to predict this morning.  Some model solutions push the front through clearing things out over the weekend, other stall the front along the coast keeping some rain chances for Saturday and Sunday.  Right now I’ll swing toward the “Going Through” solution based on 40% confidence/60% wishful.  The weekend is still four days away.  Hopefully the picture will become more clear in the near future.

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am!

weather@katctv.com

October starts next week, and you would think we would be steering clear of the 90s, but they might be back over the weekend.  Humidity levels will remain high and rain chances will start to drop off, especially on Sunday.  Next week looks a bit more fall like…we’ll get to that later.

Yesterday I was expecting a bit more coverage on the rainfall.  I was pleased to see then sunshine so I could finish up some much needed grass cutting.  About half way through the job though, I was shaking my fist at the sun because the heat combined with the humidity made it almost unbearable by early afternoon.  The heat index around 2pm in New Iberia was 99!  I know, I know….”Dave, why do you cut grass in the middle of the day when it’s the hottest?”  Well with my schedule, it’s the only time I have between getting home from work, and preparing for afternoon homework when the school bell rings!

Today, I’m expecting more of the same.  Clouds until late morning, sun and clouds by midday, hot and humid this afternoon with some widely scattered showers and storms popping up.  Most of the rains will fall apart by the evening.  Temps will run in the upper 80s again, heat index will run about 95 or so.  Heaven for the skeeters.

Saturday, expect low clouds and haze during the morning with muggy conditions.  By midday we’ll see some sunshine again.  Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s.  Afternoon storms will fire up again, with about a 30% coverage.  Normally we’ll see the storms dying out by the evening, but Saturday night there will be a jolt of energy passing by in the mid and upper levels.  That might keep the storms going a little later into the evening.  Most of the action should wind down after midnight.

Sunday again will be muggy and cloudy in the morning.  Sunshine expected during the afternoon.  Drier air in the mid levels will suppress the thunderstorm development.  20% on the coverage, and with considerable sunshine temps will soar into the lower 90s with the heat index touching 100.  Try to find a nice shady spot for the big Sugar Cane Festival Parade Sunday afternoon.  If you’ve got kids walking in the Children’s Parade Saturday morning make sure they stay hydrated!!!

So, about this so called “More Pleasant Weather” expected next week.  It does appear a cool front will have enough push to get through the area and push well into the Gulf of Mexico.  Now this won’t happen until late Monday or early Tuesday morning.  The air mass will be slightly cooler, but much drier.  You’ll feel a hint of fall during the early morning hours as temps should fall into the mid 60s.  The lower humidity will keep it pleasant during the day even with temps pushing back into the mid 80s.  Dry air can change in temperature a lot easier than humid air can.  So when the humidity is low, there is a greater temperature spread between the high and the low.  When the summer doldrums are present, we see about a 20 degree change between the high and the low.  When the air is dry, like in the fall, temperature swings of 30 degrees between night and day are not uncommon.

I thought this Eve nagging Adam cartoon was funny.  I hope this puts you in the fall spirit!  Have A Great Weekend!!!!

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am

weather@katctv.com

Our warm and humid weather with the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue for a couple of more days but drier weather is on the way for Sunday.  The upper low that has been sitting across the Plains states will finally get kicked out yielding a more progressive upper pattern across the Gulf rim.  Scattered tropical showers and storms remain in the forecast for Friday and Saturday but a frontal trough may initially enhance our rain chances Saturday.  Drier but not much cooler weather should advance into the region Sunday with highs still persisting in the upper 80s to near 90 through Monday.  A secondary frontal trough with decidedly cooler air should arrive by Monday night insuring comfortable humidity, plenty of sunshine and almost fall-like conditions for next Tuesday and Wednesday.  Highs mid-next week will be closer to the mid-80s while overnight lows are expected to drop into the mid-60s.  The respite from the rain chances may be short-lived with a quick-moving weather system possibly bringing rain chances back to the area by the end of next week.  Rob

The rainy weather is starting to get to some people now.  Extended rains last week, extended rains this week.  The lack of sunshine is probably slowing people down at least somewhat too.  The mosquitoes love it, and at least now I can see where all the ant poison needs to go!  Yesterday the rains developed and moved over the same areas, mainly over St. Landry, Lafayette, Vermilion, St. Martin, Iberia, and St. Mary Parishes.  Here in Lafayette we picked up another 1.39″ with the downpours during the late afternoon hours.  Today it appears the rains will re-develop later this morning as the front is still stalled over the region, and there is plenty of tropical moisture being pulled northward by the upper level low spinning over the mid part of the country.  I would expect about the same coverage, and fairly similar totals.  Some areas might get up to 2 inches again today if we get those “training” storms.

The upper level low will weaken and drift northward over the next couple of days.  The front in place will eventually wash out.  So expect about a 10% drop in rain chances each day until the early part of the week.  That will equate to 50% today, 40% tomorrow, 30% for Saturday, 20% for Sunday.  Next week looks more promising for a drying period.  A cool front will move in late Monday.  By Tuesday were hoping for some temps in the mid 80s during the day and lower 60s at night with lower humidity!

Four years ago we were watching Category 3 Hurricane Rita moving onshore near Johnson Bayou in the extreme southwestern corner of Louisiana.  Rita brought incredible storm surges not seen since Hurricane Audrey nearly 50 years prior.  The surge impacted most of Vermilion parish, with severe flooding as far north as Erath and Delcambre.  Much of Iberia parish south of LA14 and west of US 90 was underwater.  St. Mary parish also recorded significant storm surge flooding.  Lower parts of Cameron and Vermilion parishes were wiped off the map including Pecan Island, Grand Chenier, Cameron, Holly Beach, and Johnson Bayou.  Fortunately, a successful evacuation of those parishes kept the death toll to zero.  Only one direct death was recorded for the state of Louisiana, coming from Calcasieu Parish, and only 7 direct deaths from Rita in the United States.  There were 120 indirect deaths caused mainly by accidents during the evacuations, clean-up injuries, heat exahaustion, and poor health.  This is incredible considering it is the most intense hurricane ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico (Breaking Katrina’s record set only 24 days earlier), and some of the worst storm surge flooding ever experienced along the Gulf Coast!  It was the third of four Category 5 hurricanes of the 2005 season (only season with more than 2), It is also the 4th most intense hurricane ever in the Atlantic Basin, and holds the record for the fastest 1 hour pressure drop,  and an amazing 70mb drop in 24 hours.  Hurricane Rita’s winds peaked at 180mph with a minimum pressure of 895mb!  The Gulf looks much better today, than it did in late September 2005!

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am!

weather@katctv.com

Scattered showers and locally heavy thunderstorms dumped on Acadiana again this afternoon.  Locally heavy tropical downpours accounted for more than an inch of rain officially in Lafayette with activity still fired-up as of 630pm.  Activity will slowly diminish with the loss of daytime heating this evening.  Tomorrow will bring more cloudiness along with another good scattering of showers and storms.  The nearly stationary frontal boundary draped across our state will be slow to go through Friday and perhaps Saturday so there will be little in the way of major changes through then.  Another frontal trough will approach by late Saturday, possibly enhancing our rain chances then, potentially bringing more stable air in later this weekend into early next week, but we are still going with some lingering rain chances Sunday and Monday.  A secondary and decidedly drier front should usher in cooler and more comfortable conditions for Tuesday/Wednesday of next week.  Highs mid-next week should drop into the mid-80s with lots of sun while overnight lows drop into the mid-60s…so something to look forward to!  In the near term, keep that umbrella handy over the next few days.