The next several days will bring a dry weather pattern over Acadiana with warm sun to enjoy and cool evenings to chill. Easy to accept this over the record rainfall we have experienced this month. Rivers and Lakes are full and not capable to handle anymore runoff. The expected dry pattern is exactly what we need. I have posted the latest rainfall totals and they are impressive but not surprising given the current El Nino event we are experiencing.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 521 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2009 ...OCTOBER RAINFALL AMONG THE TOP FIVE WETTEST ON RECORD... WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...PRELIMINARY OCTOBER RAINFALL TOTALS FOR OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE REPORTING STATIONS ARE AMONG THE 5 WETTEST ON RECORD. THE FOLLOWING TABLES RANK THE 10 WETTEST OCTOBERS ON RECORD: LAKE CHARLES ------------------------- 1. OCTOBER 2002 - 21.44" 2. OCTOBER 1970 - 17.28" 3. OCTOBER 2009 - 14.96" 4. OCTOBER 1985 - 12.75" 5. OCTOBER 1984 - 12.22" 6. OCTOBER 1949 - 11.15" 7. OCTOBER 2006 - 10.92" 8. OCTOBER 1919 - 10.30" 9. OCTOBER 1925 - 10.23" 10. OCTOBER 1996 - 9.57" ------------------------- LAFAYETTE ------------------------- 1. OCTOBER 2002 - 18.27" 2. OCTOBER 1985 - 15.65" 3. OCTOBER 1949 - 13.70" 4. OCTOBER 1984 - 12.79" 5. OCTOBER 2009 - 12.52" 6. OCTOBER 1925 - 12.16" 7. OCTOBER 1918 - 12.02" 8. OCTOBER 1964 - 10.57" 9. OCTOBER 1996 - 10.32" 10. OCTOBER 1932 - 10.16" ------------------------- NEW IBERIA ------------------------- 1. OCTOBER 1984 - 21.35" 2. OCTOBER 2009 - 11.65" 3. OCTOBER 1985 - 11.21" 4. OCTOBER 2004 - 10.88" 5. OCTOBER 1964 - 9.31" 6. OCTOBER 2002 - 9.23" 7. OCTOBER 1993 - 9.15" 8. OCTOBER 1996 - 8.88" 9. OCTOBER 1970 - 7.31" 10. OCTOBER 1949 - 7.08" -----------------------
Lingering chilly soaking rains will end later tonight as the much anticipated weather-maker finally clears the area sometime after midnight. Flooding conditions across Eastern Texas and Western Louisiana up the the northern part of the state into Arkansas have been quite common with rainfall totals in the 6-8″ range from the extreme western portions of Beauregard and Vernon parishes on northward. Most of us in Acadaina will ultimately see accumulations in the 2-3″ range with fortunately no severe weather. Shreveport and surrounding areas weren’t so lucky (check out our video in our newscasts this evening) and at press time a severe weather threat has developed over toward Mississippi. Much drier conditions will move into the area by morning with mostly sunny and pleasantly cool conditions likely this weekend and carrying into much of next week! It will be a cool Halloween with trick or treat temperatures starting in the lower 60s but dropping nicely into the mid 50s with a little bit of a breeze by 10pm…so bundle up. Have a great weekend and don’t forget to set the clocks back and hour Saturday night! Rob
The rains and storms surprisingly held off today as weak high pressure aloft over the Eastern Gulf put a lid on any convection that tried to fire-up. Gusty south to southeast winds have been as high as 40mph this afternoon with windy conditions and some gusts likely to stay with us overnight. Nasty storms along a broken squall line has been producing torrential downpours and the threat of tornadoes this afternoon across much of Eastern Texas northeastward through the Arklatex. A tornado watch remains in effect through 900pm including much of the western and northwestern part of Louisiana. I would expect additional watches to migrate farther eastward overnight and toward morning. Temperatures tonight will stay in the balmy 70s but will drop nicely into the upper 50s behind the front by late tomorrow afternoon. Showers and storms will be likely across western portions of Acadiana by sunrise with activity slowly marching eastward. I think that the greatest risk of severe weather will occur until the front gets here which should by by midday or early afternoon. The main mode of severe weather should be the threat of damaging winds but any discrete cells that develop ahead of the main squall may produce isolated tornadoes…this is why we’ll probably be under a tornado watch at some point later tonight and tomorrow. Plenty of upper support will keep rain and embedded thunderstorms across the area through tomorrow night with activity likely tapering off a few hours after midnight. There may still be the threat of nasty storms behind the front with the risk of gusty winds and perhaps hail. Rain totals should be in the 2-4 inch range locally with much higher amounts toward the Texas state line and toward the northwest. Flood watches may also expand across the rest of Acadiana based on thunderstorm trends overnight. Clearing and cool conditions are expected for this weekend with chilly trick or treat temperatures likely in the upper 50s and falling with a windchill to boot! Sunday through the end of next week continues to look quite nice so the usual gorgeous October weather that we normal see in the mid-later part of the month won’t take up residencein Acadiana November! Stay safe and keep it tuned to KATC for weather updates…it looks busy for Dave’s shift tomorrow. Rob
After a one day break from the rain and storms another active weather system is on the way and this one will produce more rain and introduce the possibility of several severe weather threats. In the near term, skies are clearing and cooler conditions are anticipated for tonight, but with light winds, residual ground moisture and temperatures approaching the dew point make for a fairly good argument for some patchy dense fog by morning. Tomorrow should bring partly sunny skies and mild conditions after any morning fog but clouds will increase by late the day. The next storm system will induce a warm front to develop in the Gulf tomorrow evening with showers and storms developing across the area Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. There may be a severe weather threat with this front with rotating storms possible. The atmosphere will further destabilize Thursday with several rounds of scattered showers and storms likely. There may be a tornadic severe weather threat with the activity on Thursday. Coverage of showers and storms Thursday is still questionable as the bulk of the upper energy will be lagging behind in Texas. But that won’t be a question Thursday night into early Friday as the core of frontal trough approaches. Another severe weather threat will develop ahead of this trough with damaging winds the primary mode of the potential severe weather. Finally, it appears that rain and storms may follow behind the front, in concert with the upper trough which could add a few more inches of rain to the equation. The bottom line is that Acadiana will likely see somewhere between 3-5 inches of rain between late Wednesday and Friday while the risk of severe weather will be a possibility during roughly between late Wednesday night and early Friday morning. More flood and severe weather watches will be likely for the area so stay tuned…Some models have been lingering the rains through Friday afternoon/evening but the whole mess may come through a little sooner. The weekend looks quite nice with mostly sunny and cool conditions lasting through mid-next week. We’ll need the break. 
I have also tallied our rainfall through this month and the entire year. After a relatively dry first six months of the year it has been quite wet with above nomral monthly rains in Lafayette every month since June with the exception of a near normal September. So far, October 2009 is the 10th wettest October on record, not including the additional rainfall likely later this week which will surely give us a shot at the top 5. Right now we stand at 9.76″ for the month but the all-time record is 18.27″ set back in 2002…hopefully that record stays safe! Rob
Yesterdays storms missed most of Acadiana but there was some flooding mainly west near Lake Charles. Rain fell at a rate of more than 2inches per hour. This was a case of…”So close but yet so far”. But not far enough. The rain only saturated the ground further and any excessive rain will be problem We have used much of the forgivness with soil saturation. Meaning there is only so much the ground can hold, once saturated any rain will all become runoff. Possibly you tested this in school using a dry sponge. Soak the sponge in water, premeasured amount, and the sponge expand and hold’s the water within. Then additional water added to the sponge is not help and runs out. Same theory withthe earths soil. Topsoil will only hold so much before it loses that ability. Some soils have a greater capacity to hold water, soil with larger amounts of peat or organic materials hold more than soils contain clay or sand. 
The next storm system forecasted to be here by Thursday leaves us with little or no time to dry and not have additional Flood problems for Acadiana. You can see how strong the storms were yesterday and what impact they had on the area. 
Rain and embedded thunderstorms continue to slowly march eastward this evening. Activity across western portions of Acadiana has been dropping about 2″ or rain in less than an hour’s time resulting in localized street flooding across Calcasieu and more than likely Jeff Davis Parish as of 615pm this evening. Rainfall totals of 2-3″ will be likely area-wide and as Dave mentioned there may be some hots spots along the coast that catch 3-5″. With all the wet weather of late the ground has become and stayed quite saturated so it will only take a little more than an 1-2″ of rain in a short period of time to cause some run-off problems. Weak cyclogenesis (low pressure development) is occurring along the Southwest Louisiana coast this evening with this low expected to sweep east-northeastward across the coastal parishes and over SE Louisiana tomorrow morning. It does appear that the greatest risk of severe weather should stay offshore but some rotating cells may be possible along the coastal parishes (in the warm sector of the low) and over extreme SE Louisiana tomorrow morning. Nonetheless we’ll still be on the lookout for trouble-makers overnight but right now it looks 
mostly like a flood threat through tomorrow morning with the severe weather parameters staying elevated across the area. After a very wet morning, rain showers will become more scattered in nature for Tuesday afternoon with clearing and cooler conditions anticipated for Tuesday night. We’ll get a nice break on Wednesday with mostly sunny and pleasant conditions expected but the next storm system promises another, perhaps a greater threat, of flooding rains, and a better shot at severe weather for Thursday possibly into Friday. Rain and storms could move back into the area as early as late Wednesday night with severe weather/tornado risks possible beginning by Thursday morning…so stay tuned. At least there is some good news…the weekend will be dry and pleasant…so Halloween should be a treat!
Heavy rains are anticipated again across Acadiana and with recent heavy rains, soils are saturated and river stages are still fairly high. Rainfall totals of 1-3″ are possible across the area, with up to 4″ possible right along the coast. Clouds will increase this morning with showers developing this afternoon. Heavier rains will move in tonight with thunderstorms possible too. Right now the severe weather threat is low, flooding will be the main threat with this system.