KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

A cold front is moving through the area this morning bringing rain, and eventually some cooler weather.  Rainfall totals should stay below one inch today, most of the rain ending after noon.  With the cold front moving through, temperatures will drop from the mid 60s to the mid 50s later today.  Winds will shift to the northwest.

The front will stall over the northern Gulf of Mexico tonight so cloudy skies will remain with temperatures in the mid 40s for lows.  Low pressure will develop along the front near the Texas coast early tomorrow.  As it moves toward the Louisiana coast, rain will redevelop and gusty winds will move in.  Rainfall totals will run about 1-2″ for tomorrow and tomorrow night.  Rains will taper off for Wednesday and cold weather will continue for the mid week.  Temperatures on Thursday and Friday will only run in the low 50s, and some areas will dip close to the freezing point during the morning hours.

Hurricane season also comes to an end today.  A very unusual season to say the very least.  Of course with El Nino, the total storm count was down from average.  The timing of the storms was out of sorts too.  A late start to the season, and a hurricane in the Gulf in November.  A total of nine named storms, three hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.  Normally we have 10 named, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major.  The first named storm didn’t form until August 12th, and Hurricane Ida was a rare hurricane in November, but striking the Alabama coastline as a tropical storm.

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am

weather@katctv.com

    The next storm begins to move East and as it stands now the rain chances will be high.  The temperatures though on the low side with rain it will feel quite cool.  The main Low Pressure will stay to our North but the secondary surface Low expected to develop will be the main rain maker.  At this time my thinking is the surface Low will be just tyo our South keeping most of the thunderstorms to our South.

       The main weather expected will be rain with cool temperatures.  The biggest thunderstorm threat will be Monday when the warmest temperatures are present.  Normally we see after a Frontal passage rain ending and skies clear but rain remain overhead. 

Acadiana experienced beautiful weather for the Thanksgiving holiday, plenty of sunshine and cool temperatures.  Shoppers this morning were shivering as lows dropped into the mid 30s.  We did have reports of frost across the region.  Most of the frost reports came in from outside of the city, and most of the frost was accumulating on rooftops and parked cars.  Actual temperatures stayed above the freezing point, but frost can form when the dewpoint drops below 32 degrees.  Early this morning the dew point in New Iberia was at 31 degrees, so the formation of some frost wasn’t a surprise to me.

Sunny skies are expected again today with highs running in the mid 60s.  As the wind shifts more southward tonight, temperatures will hold in the mid 40s, so no frost expected tonight.  Tomorrow expect a mix of sun and clouds with highs pushing closer to 70.  Clouds will return Sunday as an upper level trough develops west of us, and a cold front drops in from the north.  A few showers are possible late in the day Sunday.

Next week, that front will stall along the Gulf Coast.  Acadiana will be north of the front, so the early part of the week will be cooler than normal.  Upper level disturbances will move along the front, so rain chances will stay high for Monday and Tuesday, possibly into Wednesday too.  Temps will only reach the mid to upper 50s during the day, so a chilly rain will await you as you head back to work and school.

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am

weather@katctv.com

A secondary surge of high pressure will build in for Thanksgiving nudging our temperatures downward 5-7 degrees through Friday morning.  Lows tonight will drop into the lower 40s while highs Thanksgiving will be hard-pressed to reach the 60 degree mark.  The forecast challenge will be Thursday night into Friday morning with lows likely dipping into the mid-30s.  There could be a healthy frost by Friday morning while some spots may see the first freeze of the season, especially across the northern parishes of Acadiana.  Mostly sunny and cool conditions will stay with us for Friday with a nice warm-up this weekend.  Look for fair to partly cloudy skies Saturday and partly to mostly cloudy skies for Sunday.  Highs this weekend will top out near 70 and the low-mid 70s Sunday.  Next week looks rather unsettled with a frontal trough likely to bring scattered showers and possibly some storms to the area Monday.  We could see some healthy storms Monday depending on whether the jet-phases correctly with the lower level features and the available moisture.  There are some signs that the front will stall just offshore with an area of low pressure possibly developing in the Gulf Tuesday into Wednesday.  This wwould keep plenty of clouds in the region with some rather chilly rains possibly redevloping for Tuesday night and Wednesday.  It could clear out sooner but given the El Nino enhanced sub-tropical jet, a cloudy, colder and wetter scenario would be the most prudent forecast at this time.  I’ll be off for the several days for the holiday weekend so have a happy Thanksgiving!  See you in December…Rob.

This image and story is courtesy of NASA.  This actually confirms suspicions of the robustness of recent low pressure systems in the Gulf of late.  Probably more active storms this winter to come as the stronger the El Nino, the greater the potential for a wet and stormy winter for Acadiana.  Typically El Nino winters are milder than normal across our part of the Gulf Coast, but the risk of a winter ice storm is also a little greater.  In addition, active El Nino winters normal bring more regular and intense severe weather events especially in January and February…we’ll see article to follow.  Rob

From NASA…

El Niño is experiencing a late-fall resurgence. Recent measurements of sea level height from the Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM)/Jason-2 oceanography satellite showed that a strong wave of warm water, known as a Kelvin wave, had spread from the western to the central and eastern Pacific. This warm wave appears as the large area of higher-than-normal sea surface heights in the area between 170 degrees east and 100 degrees west longitude.

This image was created with data collected OSTM/Jason 2 during a 10-day period centered on November 1, 2009. Red and white areas in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific were 100 to 180 millimeters (4 to 7 inches) above normal. In the western equatorial Pacific, blue and purple areas show where sea levels were between 80 and 150 millimeters (3 and 6 inches) below normal.

Sea surface height is an indication of temperature because water expands slightly as it warms and contracts as it cools. The elevated sea levels in the central and eastern Pacific are equivalent to sea surface temperatures more than one to two degrees Celsius above normal (two to four degrees Fahrenheit).

The Kelvin wave was triggered by a large-scale, sustained weakening of trade winds in the western and central equatorial Pacific during October. The change in winds disturbs not only the surface currents but also the deeper ocean circulation. The disturbances reverberate along the thermocline—the boundary between warm, surface water and cold, deep water—as large, slow-moving waves. Similar, weaker events that began in June 2009 initially triggered and have sustained the present El Niño.

Although El Niño means drought in some parts of the world, in other places it can bring drought relief. “In the American West, where we are struggling under serious drought conditions, this late-fall charge by El Niño is a pleasant surprise, upping the odds for much needed rain and an above-normal winter snowpack,” said oceanographer Bill Patzert of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California.

NASA image by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory Ocean Surface Topography Team. Caption adapted from the Planetary Photojournal.

Visibilities dropped to 1/4 mile for a while early this morning here in Lafayette and the surrounding areas.  Fog lifted quickly and a mix of sun and clouds have returned.  A cool front later this afternoon will bring another round of clouds, and a few showers.  Dry and cool weather is expected for the remainder of the Thanksgiving weekend.

Our front today should arrive around midday with a few showers along with it.  Thunderstorms will remain offshore, as the bulk of the moisture won’t have enough time to roll northward ahead of the front.  Some folks along the coast may hear a rumble of thunder.  Most of the rain will stay south of I-10.  After the front passes by, cooler and drier air will filter in.  Skies will clear this evening and temperatures will drop into the upper 40s.  Sunny skies are forecast for Wednesday and Thanksgiving with temperatures slightly below normal for this time of year.  Another front will dive southward late Thanksgiving evening dropping the temperatures a few more degrees for the early part of the weekend.  The second front won’t produce any rain, probably not much cloud cover either. 

Dry weather will stick around for the remainder of the weekend, although the next front will be on our doorstep late Sunday.  Rain should hold off until Monday, very cool air could be in early next week.  Some models are pointing at 30s for overnight lows Tuesday and Wednesday of next week!  Yes, it’s starting to feel more like the holidays!

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am

weather@katctv.com

A cool front will sweep across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening insuring nice and cool conditions for Wednesday.  A secondary surge of cooler air will arrive for Thanksgiving Day bringing below normal temperatures for Thursday through Saturday morning.  In the near term, fog could be an issue later tonight with clear skies, light winds, decent soil moisture.  After any morning fog expect a sun and cloud mix with seasonably mild temperatures for most of our Tuesday.  Clouds should increase later in the day ahead of a cool front that should have limited moisture to work with.  Nonetheless there will be a chance of scattered showers for the latter part of the afternoon into the evening hours.  Skies will clear late Tuesday night with sunny conditions likely Wednesday through Saturday.  Temperatures should drop into the mid-upper 40s for Wednesday morning and top out in the low-mid 60s Wednesday afternoon.  Sunny and cooler conditions are on tap for Thursday and Friday with highs closer to 60 while overnight lows could dip into the upper 30s.  Sunny and mild conditions are forecast for Saturday with milder conditions continuing into Sunday.  Clouds will likely increase for Sunday afternoon with rain chances ramping up nicely Sunday evening into Monday with our next storm system.  The coldest air of the season should follow early to mid-next week with highs likely staying in the low-mid-50s (or colder) while overnight lows could get close to the freezing mark.  More on next week’s weather to come!  Rob

Low pressure that is developing along the lower Texas coast will intensify today.  The combination of an upper level low over the Rio Grande Valley and a strong subtropical jet stream over the central Gulf of Mexico will aid in the development of this surface system.  This low is expected to deepen rapidly and as Rob stated in the earlier post, a type of  “Gulf Nor’Easter” will bring strong winds, rough seas, and heavy rains over the Gulf of Mexico.  Those in the offshore industry will need to prepare for this storm.  Those of us near the coast will see higher than normal tides with coastal flooding possible.  Hunters beware..coastal marshes will see the waters rising 1-2 feet above normal.  Those of us farther inland shouldn’t be bothered too much except for a cold rain with breezy conditions.

So far this morning, the rains have stayed off of the Texas coast.  Rains that were within 50 miles of the Cameron Parish coastline at 3am, have barely moved to the coastline as of 9am.  Dry air in place over Louisiana has brought a halt to the forward progress of the rain.  As the atmosphere moistens up, rain will be able to support itself easier, so expect rains to move onto the coast around noon, with inland areas getting into some light rain later this afternoon.  Overnight, rains will be more likely and should last through the mid part of the day Saturday.  Rainfall totals will run from about 1/2″ over northern Acadiana to about 1″ along the coast.  Offshore rains could go as high as 5-7″!

Near the center of low pressure over the Gulf, winds could be over 50 knots at times.  Gale Warnings are posted for tonight for the far offshore waters.  Small Craft Advisories are posted for the near shore waters where winds will be in the 20-30 knot range.  Those winds will push water toward the coast, so tides will be running 1-2 feet above normal with high tides running as high as 4 feet.  Coastal Flood Advisories are posted.

Sunday should be very nice for land areas with sunshine and temperatures back in the upper 60s.  Offshore conditions will go sunny too, but the winds and seas will be slow to improve.  I would expect small craft advisories to hold into Sunday at the very least.  Gale warnings might stay up for the far offshore waters for the remainder of the weekend.

With a storm this strong developing in the Gulf, what will it be like when it rounds the Carolina coast and heads toward New England???  This could be a news maker next week too!

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am

weather@katctv.com

A vigorous upper level low this evening near El Paso will energize the sub-tropical jet-stream enabling cyclogenesis (surface low pressure development) in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  This storm system will be rather potent producing rough and stormy conditions offshore with blustery, wet weather across Acadiana Friday night through midday Saturday.  Breezy east winds across Acadiana will increase and turn to the northeast Friday night, thus the Rob Perillo assigned moniker of “Nor’easter”.  This stormsystem may utlimatly be termed as a “gale” prompting National Weather Service to issue Small Craft Advisories offshore with Gale Warnings for Friday Night.  In addition, a Coastal Flood Watch has been posted for Cameron, Vermilion, Iberia and St Mary Parishes for tides possibly increasing 2-4ft tomorrow night which could lead to some minor flooding from high Gulf water.  Inland most of Acadiana can expect a general increase and thickening of cloud cover through Friday afternoon with widespread rain developing Friday night.  Rainfall totals are very tricky to assess at this point and will be directly tied to exactly where the surface low develops and the general direction this system takes, but for now we’ll say rain totals possibly near 1-2″ along the I-1o corridor southward with higher amounts toward the coastal parishes and lighter amounts farther northward.  In addition, there will be the slight risk of severe weather with the system but it should stay offshore with the warm sector, but there may be a very slight risk along the coast, especially for St Mary Parish and points to the east, so we’ll be keeping an eye out for that too.  The rain should begin to taper by midday Saturday with a cool brisk northerly windto follow Saturday afternoon.  At this point I’m not expecting temperatures to get out of the 50s Saturday so it will feel quite blustery with little or no sun through Saturday afternoon.  Sunny and pleasant conditions will return for Sunday afternoon with fair to partly cloudy and mild weather expected for next week.  Highs will be in the 70s Monday through Wednesday with a very slight risk of a few sprinkles possible Tuesday/Wednesday.  Cooler conditions are anticipated for Thanksgiving and “black” Friday with highs closer to the mid-60’s anticipated.  Make sure you check with us again tomorrow for the latest on this developing storm system.  Rob

Another cool start to the day as lows have dropped into the 30s and 40s.  Thanks to clear skies, low humidity, and lots of sunshine, temperatures should easily reach the mid 60s later today.  Tonight will be cool again with lows in the mid 40s, and sunshine will return for the early part of the day Thursday, with clouds rolling in late in the afternoon.  More of a southeast wind should boost temps Thursday back into the lower 70s.

Things start to get interesting on Friday.  A deep upper level trough is moving onto the west coast today.  As it moves over the Rockies it will split.  The northern stream will weaken considerably, while the southern track becomes more of the dominant feature.  As the southern stream crosses northern Mexico, a surface low will develop along the Texas/Mexican Gulf Coast.  As this low strengthens, it will track northeast across the Gulf.  Models are agreement on the development of the low, the timing of the low, and for the most part the strength.  The models differ somewhat on the track.  This is where the forecast gets tricky.

Scenario 1:

Tracking the low across the Gulf, then inland near Mobile.  This keeps the low offshore of Louisiana.  Therefore the heavy rain should remain over the Gulf waters.  With this track, rainfall totals here at home should range from 1/2″ in the north to an inch along the coast.  The rain should begin late Friday afternoon and end around midday Saturday.  Temperatures should run in the upper 60s for highs.  Rough conditions are forecast for the offshore waters.  Some minor tidal flooding could occur along coasts facing east or southeast.  This would include the upper Texas coast, the western edge of Vermilion Bay, and areas from Grand Isle to St. Bernard.

Scenario 2:

If the low tracks closer to the Texas coast and moves inland over Louisiana, rains will be heavier.    Several inches would be possible, especially along the coast.  Also, if parts of Acadiana sneak into the warm sector of this system, severe weather could be an issue and temperatures will be all over the place.  Ranging from low 60s over northwestern Acadiana, to near 80 over the southeast.  Coastal flooding would be a problem no matter which way you face.  Timing should still be late Friday through lunchtime Saturday. 

Right now, I’ll go with 70% on scenario #1, 20% for #2, and 10% for “other”.

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am!

weather@katctv.com