KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Another cool start to the day as lows have dropped into the 30s and 40s.  Thanks to clear skies, low humidity, and lots of sunshine, temperatures should easily reach the mid 60s later today.  Tonight will be cool again with lows in the mid 40s, and sunshine will return for the early part of the day Thursday, with clouds rolling in late in the afternoon.  More of a southeast wind should boost temps Thursday back into the lower 70s.

Things start to get interesting on Friday.  A deep upper level trough is moving onto the west coast today.  As it moves over the Rockies it will split.  The northern stream will weaken considerably, while the southern track becomes more of the dominant feature.  As the southern stream crosses northern Mexico, a surface low will develop along the Texas/Mexican Gulf Coast.  As this low strengthens, it will track northeast across the Gulf.  Models are agreement on the development of the low, the timing of the low, and for the most part the strength.  The models differ somewhat on the track.  This is where the forecast gets tricky.

Scenario 1:

Tracking the low across the Gulf, then inland near Mobile.  This keeps the low offshore of Louisiana.  Therefore the heavy rain should remain over the Gulf waters.  With this track, rainfall totals here at home should range from 1/2″ in the north to an inch along the coast.  The rain should begin late Friday afternoon and end around midday Saturday.  Temperatures should run in the upper 60s for highs.  Rough conditions are forecast for the offshore waters.  Some minor tidal flooding could occur along coasts facing east or southeast.  This would include the upper Texas coast, the western edge of Vermilion Bay, and areas from Grand Isle to St. Bernard.

Scenario 2:

If the low tracks closer to the Texas coast and moves inland over Louisiana, rains will be heavier.    Several inches would be possible, especially along the coast.  Also, if parts of Acadiana sneak into the warm sector of this system, severe weather could be an issue and temperatures will be all over the place.  Ranging from low 60s over northwestern Acadiana, to near 80 over the southeast.  Coastal flooding would be a problem no matter which way you face.  Timing should still be late Friday through lunchtime Saturday. 

Right now, I’ll go with 70% on scenario #1, 20% for #2, and 10% for “other”.

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am!

weather@katctv.com