KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Even though the weather has been incredibly nice the forecast is not without its challenges!  First the temperature forecast tonight is a tricky one with diminishing winds and generally clear skies.  But a layer of stratocumulus clouds across the northern and central part of the state is drifting southward at press time and that could halt our temperatures in the lower 40s and keep any frost from forming.  I’m going with 39 the low for Lafayette proper by morning but forecast error could be 3-4 degrees in either direction.  We’ll get a better idea on the cloud trends later tonight so tune in for the 10pm newscast to find out whether you need to protect the tender vegetation or not.  Mostly sunny and milder weather is expected through Thursday with clouds increasing Friday. 

The next forecast challenge will be the timing and intensity of the next weather system that will be developing in the northwest Gulf of Mexico Friday and Friday night.  The models have been slower bringing the moisture into the area and they are more robust with development in the Gulf of Mexico.  This means there is potential for several inches of rain especially along the coastal parishes.  There may be severe storms developing with this system Friday but that activity should stay well offshore but some of the heavier storms could clip coastal areas especially in Terrebonne and Plaquemines parishes late Friday night or early Saturday morning.  So at least we’ll say look-out for nasty storms for our offshore community and expect the possibility of soaking rains inland (with a few embedded rumbles of thunder possible) Friday night into early Saturday.  Drier conditions should move in time for the Ragin Cajun game Saturday evening with a sunny and cool Sunday anticipated.  Another quick moving system could bring another round of rain and perhaps storms by next Tuesday.  Rob

Breezy and much cooler weather is moving into Acadiana with temperatures dropping into the mid-40s by morning.  Lingering cloud cover should begin to clear after midnight affording us an opportunity to see the Leonid Meteor Shower.  The meteor shower won’t be nearly as spectacular in North America as compared to Asia with best numbers estimated to be no better than 20-30 meteors per hour here.  Up to 200-300 per hour are expected in Asia.  Best time to look will be during the pre-dawn hours after 400am and before 545am…provided the clouds clear out…and they should.  See the graphic for best viewing tips, but I wouldn’t get too excited about what we may see locally.  The biggest key is to get away from the city lights. 

Lots of sunshine and cool westerly to northwesterly breezes are in the forecast for Tuesday with highs hard-pressed to reach 60 degrees!  This is normal for January!  Nice and cool conditions will stay with us through Thursday with the main weather issue being the possibility of a light frost toward Wednesday morning.  The position of the surface high will be critical on dictating how cool we will get…right now we’re going with upper 30s for a low Wednesday morning…but mid-30s could certainly be possible especially in northern portions of Acadiana, north of the I-10 corridor and into Central Louisiana.  On the flip side we could stay in the lower 40s if a light southwest wind develops…this could also lead to a patchy ground fog scenario…more on that tomorrow.  So the bottom line is that we are at that time of year where we need to take care of the tender vegetation and cover some of the more susceptible plants that are out in the open.  The weather looks great through Thursday with the next weather-maker presenting us with the chance of rain/showers again on Friday.  The Friday system should be more robust (with respect to generating precipitation) than the weather system we saw move through Monday.  The weekend is looking great with sunny and seasonably cool conditions!  Rob

A cold front will enter the region late this morning and drift across Acadiana before leaving the area before sundown.  Right now the line of showers and thunderstorms are fairly thin.  Therefore as the line progresses eastward at about 35-40mph, the rains should move across Lafayette around midday.  Since the line is moving so quickly, don’t expect the rains to last more than a couple of hours.  The morning commute should be fine, and I believe most of the area will be behind the rain before most head home from work later today. 

Bring a jacket with you since temperatures are expected to fall behind the front.  We should hit the low 70s right before the line moves in.  As we progress through the late afternoon hours, temperatures will fall back into the low 60s.  Overnight as skies clear, lows will be in the low to mid 40s, so a bit chilly for this time of year.  As the cold air continues to flow in behind the front, temperatures Tuesday, even with mostly sunny skies will only reach the lower 60s for highs.  Tuesday night will be the coldest night of the week with lows near 40.  Wednesday the air mass will start to modify, so expect temps back in the mid to upper 60s, and we should be back in the low 70s for Thursday and Friday.  A weak disturbance will pass north of the area late Friday, so a slight chance for showers will be in the forecast. 

The upcoming weekend looks pretty good, with partly cloudy skies and near normal temperatures.

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am!

weather@katctv.com

Our stretch of nice weather will continue this weekend with exception of fog issues tonight and tomorrow night.  Temperatures will likely get close to the dew points between 10pm and midnight allowing for patchy ground fog to form.  The fog will be of the “radiational” variety first developing in open fields and rurual areas then spilling into roadways and urban spots by morning.  After any morning fog expect mostly sunny and mild conditions tomorrow with highs in the upper 70s.  Like Friday we’ll see some cirrus clouds punctuating the skies allowing for potentially another nice sunset Saturday evening.  Fog could be a bigger issue Saturday night into Sunday morning provided the cloud cover stays in the fair category and winds stay light…which they should.  Partly cloudy and warmer conditions are anticipated for Sunday (after morning fog) with temperatures topping out in the lower 80s.  There are some fundamental changes to next week’s forecast as a frontal trough approaches but the upper level low that will be guiding this system will get “cut-off” from the sub-tropical jetstream keeping our weather unsettled for much of the week.  This doesn’t necessarily imply more clouds and rain chances…but it could!  For now we’ll go with scattered showers and perhaps storms Monday into Monday night with lingering showers behind the front on Tuesday.  The upper low could yield additional slight rain chances through mid-week but then the models turn decidely wet on us Friday into  the following weekend…and that’s the way we’ll play it for now.  In the mean time have a good weekend and watch out for the fog!  Rob

High pressure is in control again across Acadiana and sunshine will continue today with temperatures just slightly cooler than yesterday.  Sunny skies shot the temperature up to 76 degrees yesterday, but this morning, we’ve dropped back to a more normal 51.  Later today, fresh, light, northerly breezes will hold the temperatures to around 70 which is closer to normal for this time of year.

As we head into the weekend a Pacific storm system will cross the Rockies and re-develop across the high plains.  Gulf moisture will make a return late Saturday.  Southerly winds will also provide above normal temperatures over the weekend with highs approaching 80 degrees both Saturday and Sunday.  Models have slowed the progress of the next system, so I’ve pushed the rain chances back to Monday, Monday night, and early Tuesday.  The front will pass through, but the strength of the front is uncertain at this time.  Earlier in the week, I was calling for highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s for next week.  Now, I’m being a little more conservative on the temps, going with low 70s and low 50s for Wednesday through Friday of next week.

The remnants of Ida are still causing problems along the East Coast.  Yesterday, heavy rain and strong winds caused coastal flooding in the Carolinas and Virginia.  The low will roll northeastward today, and as I mentioned in an earlier post about a week ago (Can’t Get Much Better Than This!!)  may become a Nor’easter over the weekend.  New England may have some rough stuff Saturday and Sunday.

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am

weather@katctv.com

Our gorgeous weather will continue for several days with slightly cooler conditions trying to work their way into the region as high pressure builds in the wake of Ida’s remnants.  Lots of sunshine is expected through Saturday.  Temperatures will warm back to near 80 this weekend as high pressure shifts off to the east.  Clouds will increase on Sunday ahead of the next frontal trough but this front appears to be lacking decent deep moisture for big rain chances but latest model guidance is coming in a little wetter Sunday into Monday…we’ll see if this is a trend.  Meanwhile enjoy the nice weather! 

Following on the rather extraordinary late season Gulf Hurricane Ida I received this email from meteorologist Donovan Landreneau at the National Weather Service in Lake Charles confirming that Ida will go in the record books.  The following is verbatim:

“Tropical Storm Ida’s landfall tonight (assuming she keeps her tropical characteristics in the final hours before landfall) will make its mark in the record books as the latest tropical storm to affect Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Not in recorded history (since 1851) has there been a hurricane or tropical storm to affect Louisiana, Mississippi, or Alabama this late in the season..”

The previous record was Juan affecting Louisiana as a category 1 hurricane (75-85 mph) on October 28-29, 1985 and as a tropical storm on October 30-31, 1985; and finally making landfall as a tropical storm across the Mississippi/Alabama coast November 1, 1985.

However, the Florida Panhandle holds the record for the latest tropical cyclone landfall for the Northern Gulf Coast. Hurricane Kate made landfall as a category 2 hurricane (100 mph) near Mexico Beach, FL (between Panama City and Apalachicola) during the afternoon of November 21, 1985.

The latest hurricane to ever strike the United States was a category 1 hurricane during the evening of November 30 into the morning of December 1, 1925 across Central Florida just south of Tampa Bay. This same storm went on to affect the North Carolina Outer Banks late on December 2nd before finally dissipating on the 4th!

As far as Texas, there are no recorded tropical storms or hurricanes to affect the state in November. The latest South Texas hurricane landfall as a category 2 (100 mph) to affect areas between Brownsville and Corpus Christi on October 16, 1912. The latest Upper Texas hurricane landfall was Hurricane Jerry, making landfall as a category 1 hurricane across Galveston Island during the afternoon and evening of October 15, 1989

According to Doppler radar, Tropical Storm Ida made a first landfall at Dauphin Island, Alabama at 5:40am.  Then Ida moved across Mobile Bay making a second landfall near Bon Secaur, Alabama which is along the eastern shore of Mobile Bay just north of Gulf Shores.  Winds at Dauphin Island were near 50mph with higher gusts, the second landfall showed winds between 40-45 mph.  Ida is now considered extra-tropical, so it is no longer a tropical system.  Tropical systems have a warm core, and generate heat energy on their own.  Now that Ida has run out of water, it will transition to a cold core low pressure area.  Winds have decreased to 35mph.

Looking at preliminary data, it looks like Ida produced some storm surge.  Tide levels generally ran about 2-4 feet above predicted tides.  Shell Beach in St. Bernard Parish ran about 5 feet, Waveland and Pascagoula, Mississippi about 4 feet, Dauphin Island to Destin ran about 3 feet.  Tropical Storm force winds were recorded from Grand Isle eastward to Tallahassee.  Gust to hurricane force were recorded on offshore rigs.  Rainfall totals in the warning area were in the 3-6 inch range.  As the remnants of Ida drag across the Florida panhandle and lower Alabama, an additional 2-4 inch rainfall is possible over the next two days.

Ida stole most of the moisture that was poised to hit Acadiana yesterday.  This was the moisture associated with a disturbance that sat in the Bay of Campeche most of last week.  Yesterday rainfall totals were mostly light across Acadiana.  A few areas near Morgan City picked up as much as 1/2 inch while the rest of Acadiana saw about a trace of rainfall.  The Lafayette Regional Airport had an empty rain bucket yesterday.

Sunny skies and breezy weather is expected today with highs in the mid 70s.  Winds will lighten up tomorrow, with slightly cooler weather by Thursday.  Friday will be partly cloudy, and temperatures will approach 80 by Saturday.  A few showers will roll in for Sunday and Monday with cooler weather expected by the middle of next week!

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am

weather@katctv.com

Tropical Storm Ida continues to churn toward the Mississippi/Alabama/Florida Panhandle coasts this evening with gusty winds and heavy rains.  Fortunately here in Acadiana the upper level disturbance that most of us thought would bring some rains across the area sealed us off from any of Ida’s direct effects.  As we have alluded to over the last several days it’s nearly impossible to ascertain interactions of tropical systems with non-tropical upper lows and as a result there was a lot of flip-flopping with respect to the local forecast.  This time around, the upper low and the tropical system produced constructive interference so no heavy rains in the area…we’ll take that and run!  Breezy conditions should kick up a bit overnight tonight through tomorrow as weakening tropical systems almost always spread out their wind fields during and after landfall.  But gusty north winds no higher than 15-25 mph are expected later tonight during the day Tuesday.  A few spotty showers are possible but not likely overnight.  Skies should become partly cloudy by morning with mostly sunny skies and breezy conditions anticipated for tomorrow afternoon.  The weather looks to stay quite nice for the rest of the week and perhaps until Sunday when a weak cool front will try to push through with a few showers possible.

Conditions offshore the Louisiana coast were quite different with 4-6ft seas reported this afternoon at South Marsh Island 268 (about 50 miles south of the Acadiana coast) while South Timbalier 300 about 85 miles south of Houma indicated 14-16ft seas with occasional 20ft waves and sustained winds at 40mph with higher gusts.  Meanwhile I received some pictures from Visoca Knoll 917 which is about 90 miles due south of Mobile where the seas were 20-25ft with hurricane force gust to 90mph were reported as the worst of Ida moved through this afternoon.  One picture is published below but ou can check out more pictures on KATC’s Online Community.  Rob

The strong wind shear that is present along the Gulf Coast is taking a toll on what was Hurricane Ida.  As of 9am Ida is now a Tropical Storm.  Winds have decreased to 70 mph.  Therefore all of the Hurricane Warnings have been discontinued for areas of Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida.  Tropical Storm Warnings will remain in effect from Grand Isle, Louisiana eastward into the Florida panhandle. 

Also significant rainfall is not expected across Acadiana today.  The other area of disturbed weather that lifted out of the Bay of Campeche over the weekend really hasn’t developed much today.  We are expecting some rain, but totals should stay below one inch.  Flood Watches that were in place overnight have been dropped.  Small Craft Advisories are still in effect for the offshore waters.  A Lake Wind advisory is in effect for areas south of I-10 today.

Ida will lift toward the Alabama/Florida coast late tonight or very early Tuesday.  Heavy rain and gusty winds will move in.  After the storm reaches land, Ida should make a hard right turn in response to the upper leve pattern.  It will slow down somewhat over Georgia and northern Florida by Wednesday, so we could see flooding rains over the southeast.  A dry northerly flow will prevail over Acadiana Tuesday through Friday, so skies will clear tomorrow with breezy conditions continuing, and sunshine will stick around through Friday.  A weak disturbance may bring a few showers as we roll toward the weekend.

I’ve said it many times before through the morning.  It feels like an “I must be dreaming” kind of day.  A Hurricane/Tropical Storm in the Gulf in November, and the Saints are 8 and 0.  Is the devil wearing gloves??

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am

weather@katctv.com