KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

After a cold, gray, rainy, day Monday, we’ll take a break from the rain today and tomorrow.  We’ll start with clouds and fog with a bit of drizzle early today, but clouds will slowly break up as we head toward the afternoon.  We’ve got a bit of a temperature inversion out there where the heavy, cold air has sank to the bottom of the atmosphere, and a layer of warm air aloft is trapping that cold, dense air.  The interaction between the cold and the warm has produced a layer of thin cloud cover.  Hopefully with a bit of wind, the atmosphere can mix enough to wash out the inversion and allow some sunshine this afternoon.  These “inversion” forecasts during the winter really take a toll on us meteorologists.  They can make or break the forecast…unfortunately the latter is usually the result.  I’ve stuck with mostly cloudy skies, but if the sun returns, most folks won’t be mad.  It’s when I predict sunshine to warm thing up, and the inversion holds…clouds stick around and usually I’ll miss the high temp by a good 5-10 degrees.  That’s usually when I hear it from you!

The next storm system believe it or not is the easier part of the forecast today.  The upper level pattern across the west will get more active today and should help to generate another surface low pressure area over the western Gulf of Mexico tomorrow.  As this low moves across the Gulf, decent moisture returns are forecast by the models.  The low should stay south of the region, so we’ll be on the cool side of this system.  Therefore, thunderstorms and any chances for severe weather should remain over the Gulf.  Moisture, overriding the cold air should produce clouds and a steady rain most of the day Thursday, with some pockets of heavy rain expected.  Most models are in agreement that Acadiana could see 2-3″ of rain starting late Wednesday night and ending around sunrise Friday.  Temperatures will remain below normal.

Over the weekend as everyone gets ready for the Super Bowl, we should see more sunshine and quiet weather.  Temperatures over the weekend will still be cool for this time of the year.  Both days should see 50s for highs and upper 30s and low 40s for lows.  Cool, but not unusual for early February.

Heavy rains plagued south Florida yesterday and more rain is expected today, so the Saints may have to adjust their practice schedule again.  Improving conditions are expected later this week.  Super Bowl Sunday looks to be mostly sunny with highs in the mid 70s. Kickoff temperature should be around 71 degrees with a light northeast breeze.  All bets are off on the forecast once Hurricane Brees enters Sun Life Stadium!  Go Saints!

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am!

weather@katctv.com