KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

The upper level pattern will be more progressive for the early part of the week bringing a chance for some rain, and eventually some thunderstorms by midweek.  This morning we’ve seen the clouds increasing, but as of late Monday morning, the rains have picked up as well.  A disturbance moving across the area has picked up a bit more moisture than earlier expected, so the coverage of the rain has increased earlier in the day.  Rain chances have been increased to 50% for today and they’ll remain at 60% or better for tonight.

The series of upper level disturbances will continue to parade across the area Tuesday and Wednesday.  It looks like we’ll be between systems during the day tomorrow and rains will pick up again late Tuesday into Wednesday.  A line of storms will develop ahead of the final push of energy Wednesday afternoon and with the jet stream getting very active at the same time, some of those storms could produce damaging winds and/or hail Wednesday afternoon and evening.  Things will quiet down for Thursday and Friday with partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures.  Saturday and Sunday should remain dry, but temperatures will fall back into the 60s during the day with overnight lows in the 40s.

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am

weather@katctv.com

Snowfall this time around just wasnt’ in the cards.  Predicting that snow will fall is always a tough call.  Predicting when the snow will begin and end is even tougher, and predicting how much snow will fall is one of the most difficult tasks we have here in the WeatherLab.  There are some basic forecasting numbers that we look at that will highlight the possibility of snowfall.  I’ve charted these, and the past three snowfalls with the numbers at those times.  I’ve also included the averages from the previous three model runs that we had to look at prior to the predicted snowfall, and finally the actual observations that show why it didn’t snow.  Honestly, I was bummed that it didn’t snow.  Not because the forecast was wrong, but because the child like excitement had become overwhelming and visions of big fat snowflakes were dancing in my head!

First the explanation of the numbers:

1. Surface Temperature is the temperature right here on the ground.  Less than 37 is best.

2. Freezing Level.  As you go up, this is the height where the temp goes below 32 degrees.

3. Temperature at 850mb.  Pressure drops as you go up.  When you reach a pressure of 850mb, the temp must be below freezing.

4. Temperature at 700mb.  Same concept, just a bit higher up.  Temp needs to be at or below -2 degrees Celsius.

5. Thickness.  This is the distance in meters between a pressure of 1000mb to 500mb, or from just above the surface to about 18000 feet.

6. Below Freezing from the freezing level to 700mb.  Temp must be below 0 degrees Celsius at those heights.

7. Surface Moisture.  Is there moisture in the lowest levels?  Take the temperature and the dewpoint in degrees Celsius.  If the values differ by less than 5 degrees, then the air is moist enough to prevent precip from evaporating.

8. Precipitable Water: Amount of water vapor in the column of air.  The higher the number, the more water available.  This can determine how much precip is received over an area.

Click the image for a larger view.  Notice in the previous three snowfalls, all of the values were there.  In the model data for the prediction, all of the numbers were there, but the surface temperature was on the border line.  Of course after all of the analysis, and looking at the actual numbers that were in place this morning, the temperature, freezing level, and most importantly the Precipitable Water were outside of the guidance.  It was too warm here on the ground, there was too much warm air at the bottom of the atmosphere, and since the moisture dried up, there was no water to make the snow.  It has been a strange winter already…will we get another chance to use this chart??  Stay Tuned.

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am

weather@katctv.com

It looks pretty certain now that another measurable snowfall will occur in Acadiana.  Winter Weather Advisories are posted for most of Acadiana starting this evening and lasting overnight.  Cloudy skies will remain in place today keeping our temperatures at 50 or lower for highs today.  Rain will start later this afternoon and should cover most of Acadiana by the end of the afternoon commute.  The cold rain will change over to snow over Central Louisiana and northern parts of Acadiana during the evening hours, then change over to snow for the I-10 corridor before midnight.  Snow may mix in with rain over southern sections of Acadiana prior to sunrise Wednesday.  The winter weather advisory will cover Allen, Evangeline, St. Landry, Jeff Davis, Acadia, Lafayette, and St. Martin.

Accumulations will be possible mainly on rooftops, cars, and grassy surfaces.  Areas where heavy snowfall occurs may see some slushy accumulation on roadways, especially elevated surfaces.  Most of the area will remain above the freezing point overnight with the exception of the extreme northern parts of Allen, Evangeline, and St. Landry parishes and areas of central Louisiana, where the temperature may drop to 31 or 32 for about a 3 hour period around sunrise.  Those areas may experience some brief freezing of bridges and overpasses.  Otherwise roadways and bridges should remain wet, but not frozen.

As far as accumulations, expect up to 2″ of snowfall to pile up north of US 190.  Up to 1″ of accumulation may occur in areas between I-10 and US 190.  Areas south of I-10 will see less than 1 inch of accumulation, and the region not included in the winter weather advisory will see some snow mixed with rain, but little or no accumulation is expected.

Most of the rain and/or snow will diminish during the mid morning hours.  Sunshine should return by midday and temperatures will climb into the lower 50s for highs.  Below normal temperatures are expected to continue through the week and the weekend.

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am

weather@katctv.com

After a nice break this weekend with temperatures around 70 degrees, it looks like we’ll be back to below normal temperatures for the remainder of this week.  Our cold front last night brought a round of showers and thunderstorms, with some heavy rainfall totals over northern St. Landry and Evangeline parishes, and severe weather was reported in St. Mary Parish with large, damaging hail seen in Franklin!  Another winter storm will be moving across the south bringing a round of cold rain Tuesday night, with a few flurries mixed in toward the end of the event.

Today we should remain cloudy for the most part, although a few welcome peaks of sunshine might get through.  Temperatures will hold in the upper 50s most of the day with the 63 degree high temperature already hit earlier this morning.  Clouds should remain in place overnight as lows will drop back into the lower 40s.  Tuesday will remain cloudy with a slight chance for rain developing late in the afternoon.  Cold rains becoming likely Tuesday night as the winter storm approaches.

This next winter storm will dump heavy, wet snow across northern and central Texas.  Probably not as much snow as the previous system dumped last week, but snows will be falling in roughly the same areas.  Expect mostly a cold rain here in Acadiana.  As the system moves eastward, most of the snow area will erode as it moves toward Louisiana, but some models are pointing at a rain/snow mix around midnight Tuesday/Wednesday across the northern suburbs of Houston, eventually changing to all snow for about an hour or two.  Some of that may move across central Louisiana, and northern parts of Acadiana, but the duration of the snowfall will be much shorter..say, less than an hour.  So I’ve mentioned a brief rain/snow mix right at the tail end of this storm, then all precip will end early Wednesday morning.  No accumulations are expected this time.  Temperatures will remain below normal for the rest of the week and the weekend.  Highs will only reach the mid 50s with lows in the 30s.  Right now it looks like we’ll stay above freezing for the next 7 days.  Hard to believe that it will be March in only a week, and we’re still experiencing temperatures colder than January standards.  Normal highs and lows this week are about 68 and 48, but we’ll be lucky to hit 60 by the weekend!

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am

weather@katctv.com

Nice and seasonably mild will be the highlight of our weekend but increasing clouds and the threat of showers and storms will finish off our Sunday.  Saturday should be very similar to our Friday with more “in and out” mid- and high level cloud cover.  Highs will be in the mid-upper 60s Saturday and should approach 70 for Sunday.  There will be the possibility of some fog again by Sunday morning with mostly cloudy skies likely to dominate for the day.  A frontal trough will approach late Sunday possibly sparking off a round of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.  The Storm Prediction Center does have Acadiana hatched in for the slight risk of severe storms that may be capable of producing damaging winds and/or hail.  Meteorologist Chris Paulsen will have the latest this weekend.  Meanwhile, another “interesting” storm system is shaping up for next the Tuesday and Wednesday time-frame with cold arctic air oozing to the south as another quick moving storm system moves in.  For most of Acadiana expect another round of cold rains, but farther to the north, significant accumulating snow/mix will be possible across the northern part of the state especially across the I-20 corridor.  This system may finish off with a brief flurry especially in northern portions of Acadiana very early Wednesday morning.  We are very early in the game to be forecasting much of anything with any accuracy at this time but it should be another interesting week for many southern states again!

You’re confused about the forecast for the next couple of days, so am I.  There are so many different scenarios for this potential winter weather maker it’ll make your head spin.   It’s usually the case when we have to forecast any winter weather along the Gulf Coast, but this one in particular is puzzling.   Each individual model shows a different outcome, and each succeeding model (time wise) is changing too.  The problem isn’t the fact that the models are different…it’s actually the opposite.  The differences are so slight, which makes fine tuning the forecast even tougher.  The rain or snow areas move back and forth by tens of miles rather than hundreds like we usually see.  And because us meteorologists are victims of our own success with predicting weather these days (pat on the back), our viewers have demanded a “higher resolution” when it comes to forecasting precipitation.

When it comes to winter precipitation, not only do I have the adult audience wanting to know where it will rain and/or where it will snow…I now have the younger folks, yes, the kids focusing on the TV with wishes of fluffy white covering the ground…and more importantly…closing school!  If you’re a parent, you’re constantly battling the “it’s not fair!” thing with your kids over what channel to watch, or who gets to play with the toy, or who gets to sit behind Mommy in the car.  That’s nothing compared to having Tom Voinche picture message my phone with a giant snowball at his home in Eunice, while 50 miles away, my kids are giving me “the look” at why there’s none at our house in New Iberia! 

So, here’s the best guess for now.  Remember this forecast is subject to change.  I’m going with increasing clouds today.  Cloudy and cold tonight with lows in the lower 30s.  Cloudy Thursday with rain developing during the morning, and continuing through the day.  Areas north of US 190 may see a few pellets of sleet during the morning, but changing to rain during the day.  Thursday night, a cold rain will continue for most of Acadiana.  After midnight, again areas north of US 190 will see rain and sleet mixed.  As the low moves eastward across the Gulf the rain/sleet mix in the northern sections will change over to snow for a short period of time before ending in the early afternoon.  Sleet may mix with the rain during that same time period for areas between US 190 and I-10.  My apologies to my children…looks like all rain for everywhere else south of I-10.

If you’re dying to see (real) snow.  Leave today and head for Natchez, or Brookhaven, or McComb, Mississippi.  Winter storm watches are posted there.  Southwest Mississippi could expect 2-4 inches of snow.  If you want to see sleet accumulating then you’ll need to be anywhere between Baton Rouge and Slidell.

If the low tracks farther south, then we’ll adjust the precip types farther south.  If we see the low farther north, then most of us will see rain, and the snow areas will lift northward toward Monroe and Jackson.  But the distances are only going to vary by about 50 miles or so again.  Tune in tomorrow because I think we won’t be grabbing on to one particular forecast until the event has begun.

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am

weather@katctv.com

Yep, you guessed it!  More rain coming in after a short break.  Yesterday turned out to be pretty nice with temperatures hitting the mid 60s.  But last night turned ugly with the rain and the wind and the cold.  This morning we’ve see blustery conditions with temperatures holding in the 40s and wind chills in the 30s.  We’ll see some sunshine this afternoon, but don’t bet on the temps to climb much today.  That wind will continue to drive cold air southward.

Skies will remain clear tonight.  Temperatures should be close to 30 degrees with a moderate breeze continuing.  If the winds were to go calm we’d be even colder, but that’s not in the forecast this time.  As Rob mentioned, this should be a light freeze so tender vegetation should be covered or brought in.  Lucky for me, I don’t have to prepare.  All of my tender vegetation was wiped out in January with the 20 degree weather.  (All of it was weeds anyway, I’m just looking for my excuse for a re-do on my yard for 2010)  Pipes won’t be a problem this time as freezing temperatures should only last a few hours.  But winter weather will hold on for quite some time.  Temperatures are to remain below normal through the Mardi Gras holiday.

Another “El Nino” system will be cranking up over the western Gulf of Mexico tomorrow, so after some brief sunshine later today and early tomorrow, clouds will be returning later in the day Wednesday.  Rains will return by Thursday morning and should continue through early Friday.  Temperatures will stay in the 40s both Thursday and Friday with lows in the 30s.  It will be a cold rain for Acadiana, although there may be a few pellets of sleet mixed in early Friday morning.  I’ve looked at the models and it looks like the snow line will remain well north of us.  The Rain/Sleet mix line may drop into northern Allen, Evangeline, and St. Landry.  As the low tracks east of us though, the cold air deepens over parts of Mississippi and the Florida parishes of Louisiana (Baton Rouge to the north shore).  Accumulating snow could be in the cards for places like McComb, Hattiesburg, and Laurel, Mississippi.  Sleet/Snow mix could be an issue for Kentwood, Franklinton, and Bogalusa, Louisiana.  This storm system will intensify so more significant snows may be seen in Alabama and Georgia Friday and Saturday.  Of course any changes in track for this Gulf low can make or break the forecast, therefore I’m being cautiously optimistic that travel concerns should be well east of us this time around.

Saturday and Sunday look pretty nice for Mardi Gras Parade viewing as long as you have warm attire.  The Children’s Parade during the morning Saturday will be chilly.  Night parades will be chilly too, but rain should stay away.  Lundi Gras may see a few widely scattered showers, and Mardi Gras looks cloudy right now.  Temperatures during the day should hit the mid 50s with lows in the mid 30s.  Normally this time of year we should be about 10 degrees warmer on both highs and lows!

If you’re planning on heading to the Big Easy later today for the Saints Super Bowl Champion Parade, bundle up!  Parade starts at 5pm and temps will be in the low 40s with north winds @ 15mph.  Remember in the city those winds can be stronger when they funnel between tall buildings.  Make sure you dress warmly, but if my prediction is correct, there will be so many people crowded to catch a glimpse of our Champs that just the combined body heat of everyone will make it warmer.  Even so, folks won’t care about the cold.  If we can scream and yell for some cheap beads year after year in the cold and the rain…then we can brave any kind of weather for this once I mean, first in a lifetime event!  Gives new meaning to “Wait Til Next Year” huh?

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am

weather@katctv.com

After our soaking rains Thursday we are all looking forward to the weekend with drier conditions Friday and cool sunshine this weekend.  Lingering cloud cover will stay with us through early Friday evening with skies clearing out Friday night.  This weekend promises mostly sunny and cool conditions with highs in the mid-50s accompanied by lows dropping to near 40 Saturday morning and mid-upper 30s for Sunday morning.  So it looks good for the local Mardi Gras events this weekend and also for the Super Bowl here and in Florida.  In fact, the same frontal trough that brought us rain will will push through the Miami area Friday night into very early Saturday.  Sunny skies with highs near 70 (which is cool by Miami standards) is in the forecast for Super Bowl Sunday.  Temperatures at game time will be dropping through the 60s and heading for the upper 50s for the Saints winning celebration! 

After a cold, gray, rainy, day Monday, we’ll take a break from the rain today and tomorrow.  We’ll start with clouds and fog with a bit of drizzle early today, but clouds will slowly break up as we head toward the afternoon.  We’ve got a bit of a temperature inversion out there where the heavy, cold air has sank to the bottom of the atmosphere, and a layer of warm air aloft is trapping that cold, dense air.  The interaction between the cold and the warm has produced a layer of thin cloud cover.  Hopefully with a bit of wind, the atmosphere can mix enough to wash out the inversion and allow some sunshine this afternoon.  These “inversion” forecasts during the winter really take a toll on us meteorologists.  They can make or break the forecast…unfortunately the latter is usually the result.  I’ve stuck with mostly cloudy skies, but if the sun returns, most folks won’t be mad.  It’s when I predict sunshine to warm thing up, and the inversion holds…clouds stick around and usually I’ll miss the high temp by a good 5-10 degrees.  That’s usually when I hear it from you!

The next storm system believe it or not is the easier part of the forecast today.  The upper level pattern across the west will get more active today and should help to generate another surface low pressure area over the western Gulf of Mexico tomorrow.  As this low moves across the Gulf, decent moisture returns are forecast by the models.  The low should stay south of the region, so we’ll be on the cool side of this system.  Therefore, thunderstorms and any chances for severe weather should remain over the Gulf.  Moisture, overriding the cold air should produce clouds and a steady rain most of the day Thursday, with some pockets of heavy rain expected.  Most models are in agreement that Acadiana could see 2-3″ of rain starting late Wednesday night and ending around sunrise Friday.  Temperatures will remain below normal.

Over the weekend as everyone gets ready for the Super Bowl, we should see more sunshine and quiet weather.  Temperatures over the weekend will still be cool for this time of the year.  Both days should see 50s for highs and upper 30s and low 40s for lows.  Cool, but not unusual for early February.

Heavy rains plagued south Florida yesterday and more rain is expected today, so the Saints may have to adjust their practice schedule again.  Improving conditions are expected later this week.  Super Bowl Sunday looks to be mostly sunny with highs in the mid 70s. Kickoff temperature should be around 71 degrees with a light northeast breeze.  All bets are off on the forecast once Hurricane Brees enters Sun Life Stadium!  Go Saints!

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am!

weather@katctv.com

   I received an email recently asking:   When the El Nino pattern ends how long before we experience the reverse pattern, La Nino in addition does this mean a return to normal rain and temperatures?

     I want to first explain briefly what the two weather patterns are, keep in mind this definition is very brief and I am not an expert on the subject.  But do find it interesting and it reminds me of how fragile the line between sustainable weather and destructive weather can be.  El Nino is a large body of  warmer than normal water in the Eastern Pacific.  This area is about  1  1/2 times the size of the United States.  Yes, much larger than what is generally understood.  It begins when every three to five years the Tropical Trade winds abate and warm water normally found near Australia spreads outward along the equator in the Pacific.  Sometimes when the El Nino is strong the warm water reaches as far as Ecuador and Peru.   

      On the other side La Nina, which is typically stronger during our Winter season, is also much less understood.  I always found it easier to have a basic undertanding for El Nino & La Nina,  is that having any other weather pattern than normal will bring extremes to what is normal weather for that area. 

      El Nino increases rain producing clouds for most but also increase the Tropical Trade Winds along the Atlantic Ocean suppressing the formation of Hurricanes. 

                La Nina weather pattern typically last one to two years.  you might remember the 1988 Mid-West Drought.  Also the lighter winds are more favorable for Hurricane formation in the Atlantic.  1992 researchers says that a strong El Nino was present.  That year in August Hurricane Andrew made landfall first in South Florida then here in Acadiana.  Andrew….an A storm in August yes, fewer storms but it only takes one to make the season devastating.  Interesting to know also that Hurricane Andrew before making landfall in South Florida almost weakened to just rain.  As it moved a little north and out of the hostile winds it strengthened to the record Category 5 storm. 

       What generally follows El Nino is the return to normal water temperatures and weather pattern.  Not always going from La Nina to El Nino.  Yes, we do have normal weather patterns.  The research is getting much better now so telling one pattern from the other is closer than ever.    In the past 20 years the have been just three La Nina’s and seven El Nino weather patterns. 

       During an El Nino the energy from the warmer water is pressed high in the atmosphere and directed with pressure eastward where it settles over the Tropical Atlantic and the release of energy tends to choke the formation of Tropical Storms which are very weak in the beginning stage. 

            The Earth is always trying to balance and for that we get the movement of storms and transfers of energy.