KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

An active and very strong jet stream will usher another disturbance into the Southern Plains Wednesday allowing for some strong to possibly severe storms from Eastern Texas on northeastward during the afternoon and evening hours.  This system will be most intense primarily in the Arklatex Region but a few hefty storms could get going a little closer to home in Acadiana.  The Storm Prediction Center has most of our area hatched in for a slight risk of severe storms for Wednesday afternoon and evening but where storms initiate will be the question.  Activity for Acadiana should be scattered and not widespread, but because of very strong wind dynamics aloft with a 170mph-200mph jet stream and veering winds with height (clockwise from surface to aloft) any storms that do get going will be capable of producing hail, damaging winds and possibly an isolated tornado.  The risk of this event will increase farther to the north and east of Acadiana, but extra “weather-vigilance” will be the mainstay through tomorrow evening just in case so check with us on air and at katc.com for the latest.  In between, tonight through tomorrow morning, expect mild conditions with areas of fog developing, especially offshore and along the coastal parishes where a Dense Fog Advisory is currently in effect.  After some morning fog, expect partly sunny and warmer conditions with highs pushing into the lower 70s for our Wednesday.  Scattered showers and storms should begin to fire-up across Eastern Texas and/or the Upper Texas Coast early tomorrow afternoon and will rapidly advance east-northeastward during the afternoon and evening.  More stable conditions will move back into Acadiana late Wednesday night with some fog again a possibility by Thursday morning.  Mostly sunny, breezy and warm conditions are anticipated for Thursday with likely the warmest temperatures of the year!  Mid-70s are expected Thursday but a gradual cooling trend is expected into the weekend.  Right now it looks dry through early next week but temperatures will likely stay below normal (50 & 70) Friday through at least next Thursday.

A benign weather pattern will stay with Acadiana for the rest of the week with milder (finally) more seasonable temperatures this weekend.  Chilly conditions will continue during the night time hours with frosty conditions quite possible for Thursday morning.  Highs Thursday will push the upper 50s to lower 60s under wall to wall sunshine.  Sunny conditions and slightly milder temperatures are in the offing Friday after another chilly start in the upper 30s.  This weekend should be fair to partly cloudy with some increased high level, cirrus cloudiness.  Temperatures Saturday should be well into the mid 60s and upper 60s to lower 70s possible for Sunday.  But with a relatively quite pattern and milder temperatures, some late night/early morning fog may be possible this weekend.  The next weather-maker will approach the area Monday.  Long range models are split on the outcome across Acadiana with one camp advertising storms and a dry frontal passage by Monday night with the other stalling the frontal boundary and maintaining some rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday.  For now I’m going with a good chance of storms by late Monday (with perhaps a severe weather element possible) followed by drier but still mild weather into mid-week.  Perhaps we have turned the corner on winter and putting the cold temperatures behind us…let’s hope winter stays in the rear-view mirror!

Your thinking is right!  The winter of 2009-10 had a number of events.  From the earliest measurable snowfall on record in December, to the deep freeze in early January, and the 6th coldest February on record with another measurable snow.  The El Nino pattern was in full swing this winter as system after system rolled up the Texas coast with plenty of rain, clouds, and too many dreary gray days to count.  Even though it is now March, we still can’t seem to shake the cold, or the rain.  I, like many others are anxious for Spring to get here!

Let’s start with temperatures.  Overall the winter was colder than average.  When you take the 90 days of climatological winter (December, January, February), the average temperature is about 53.8 degrees.  This number comes from averaging all of the normal highs and lows for those months.  This winter we finished at 49.0 degrees.  Almost 4 degrees below normal, which is pretty significant for a three month average.  In south Louisiana we don’t have any average highs that are below 60 degrees, but this year we failed to reach a 60 degree high  52 times!  In fact only 26 of the 90 days did we have an above average temperature day!  We dropped below the freezing mark 17 times this winter, compared to only 7 times last winter.  We had almost as many days below freezing this winter as we’ve had for the past three!  There weren’t any breaks this year either.  We’ll go warm, then cold, then warm again in a normal winter.  When I’m talking about breaks, I mean a day where it hits 70 or higher.  Over the past 10 years, we’ve hit 70 degrees about 33 times on average.  This year, only 17.  80 degrees?  Forget about it…last winter we hit 80 once, this year..0!  By the way, February 2010 was tied for the 6th coldest February on record.  Only 2 days were at or above average.  The average temperature was 47.4 degrees, normal is 54.3.  We had 6 days in January where we dropped into the 20s.  The lowest temp of the winter…20 degrees on January 10th, sandwiched in between a pair of 21s on the 9th and the 11th.  And you wonder why everything is brown outside!

Snow…Twice this winter.  December 4th and February 12th.  We’ve had two snows in one winter before, but never three.  I was really hoping to break that record last week, but the snow never came.  December 4th we picked up 0.5″ of snow, and on February 12th we picked up 0.4″.

Rain…Above normal for the winter.  A total of 18.62″, or a little over 3″ above.  We had over 10″ of rain in December, almost 6″ in February.  We caught a break in January with only 2.02″.  Probably because the first 10 days of January were so cold that the air couldn’t hold any moisture!

March is coming in like a lion with the rain, and eventually this afternoon the wind.  It should be cloudy tomorrow, with sunshine returning Wednesday and holding for the rest of the week.  Temperatures aren’t expected to climb to normal until late this weekend when we might hit 70 on Sunday.

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am

weather@katctv.com

Another vigorous storm system will advance toward Acadiana Friday bring clouds and rain.  Look for clouds to increase through the morning hours with rain developing from noon onward.  This system has a very cold upper level core making conditions aloft quite unstable.  Therefore embedded thunder may be possible tomorrow afternoon with even the possibility of some small hail or soft hail (also known as graupel…see the link for a definition) through tomorrow evening.  Our in-house models are showing anywhere from 1/2 to one inch of rain will be likely area-wide with isolated amoounts up to 1.5-2 inches possible if convection (thunder) gets going.  For a meteorologist this is and interesting system…for most of us it’s just plain wet and sloppy.  While this will be just a wet weather system for Acadiana, I wouldn’t be surprised if some snow flurries follow this system as near as southwestern Mississippi into interior portions of Alabama.  Lingering rain showers and drizzle will be likely through much of Friday night but conditions will likely begin to dry toward daybreak Saturday.  Any lingering cloud cover early Saturday will likely burn off by the afternoon or sooner so at least expect a mostly sunny and cool weekend.  Highs will top out Saturday in the low-mid 50s, drop into the mid-30s for Sunday morning, and rise into the upper 50s to near 60 for Sunday afternoon.  Another quick-moving weather system will arrive Monday bringing another shot of chilly rain, and perhaps soaking rains, to Acadiana.  The Monday system will likely turn into another Southeast and Mid-Atlantic snowstorm…no rest of the winter-weary!  At least for Acadiana, milder tempartures will return for later next week.

Those of you that have been looking for milder temperatures the forecast for the rest of the week into this weekend is just for you!  High pressure will begin to shift eastward Thursday gradually allowing for a return flow from the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will slowly moderate through Friday…remember the near shore shelf waters of the Gulf of Mexico are in the low-mid 50s so this will help moderate our lows, but will cap our highs, especially closer to the coast with light southerly winds.  Mostly sunny skies with some high cirrus clouds are anticipated for our Thursday while a weak disturbance mainly to the south of us will engender more clouds for Friday with a few sprinkles possible, especially closer to the coast.  Chance of measurable rain (enough to wet the ground) will be in the 10% range Friday.  Highs Friday should reach in the lower 60s with a deeper draw of air from the southern Gulf pushing our temperatures into the upper 60s Saturday under partly sunny skies.  Even warmer temperatures are anticipated for Sunday ahead of a cool front that should generate showers and storms by Sunday night.  Highs Sunday should top out in the lower 70s.  There may be a slight risk of severe storms Sunday evening/night and will update accordingly as we get closer to the event.  Slightly cooler weather is expected behind the next front with the next wet weather-maker arriving around next Wednesday.  The bottom line though as we segue to milder spring conditions over the next 4-8 weeks is that storm systems will provide for increasing threats for thunderstorms and more than likely a few rounds of severe weather…so each time a front approaches we’ll have to keep an extra eye on the severe weather potential.

Our unseasonably cold weather will continue for another 72 hours with a warm-up back to seasonably mild temperatures later this week and into the weekend.  Last night’s cold front has reinforced the chill in the air with temperatures dropping nicely through the 40s and the upper 30s this evening.  Factor in the wind, wind chills will be about 5 degrees colder so bundle up if you’re heading out for any of the festivities tonight.  After a frosty start our Mardi Gras will be sunny and quite cool with temperatures topping out in the lower 50s for the last parades of the day.  It appears that Wednesday and Thursday mornings will be frosty but we’ll be able to move the plants back outdoors for Thursday afternoon as highs reach back into the lower 60s. Look for lots of sunshine through Friday but as the weekend approaches weakening fronts and a zonal west to east flow aloft may allow for more clouds and a few showers Saturday with better rain chances possible for next Monday.  The bottom line: near term-cold but later in the week a little more spring-like with highs in the 60s through the weekend and perhaps into early next week…we are not quite done iwth winter yet, but at least we’re heading in the right direction for the weekend!

Updating Dave’s most excellent and honest blog entry…we are still on course for cold, sloppy rains Thursday into Thursday night.  Once again, we are faced with marginal conditions that could generate a rain/snow mix Thursday night with a possible change-over to all snow in the northern most portions of Acadiana before the precipitation ends during the pre-dawn hours of Friday.  For this reason the NWS has issued Winter Weather Advisories for Beuaregard, Allen, Evangeline and St Landry Parishes for Thursday night for the possibility of a light slushy accumulation.  Temperatures however should stay above the freezing mark at the surface through tomorrow night…but aloft conditions should be cold eneough for snow and/or sleet to mix in with the rain.  With that being said cold air to our north and aloft could get entrained into this system, especially if our surface winds stay consistent out of the NE or NNE.  Farther to the north a significant accumulating snow may be possible from Alexandria to Baton Rouge while the best target for a good snow will be in SW Mississippi where 2-4″ of snow will be likely with up to 6″ possible there.  Winter Storm Watches are posted from Northeast Texas eastward through CenLa into Mississippi including the Baton Rouge Parishes.  For most of us the precipitation will start off lightly and sporadic Thursday morning with some sleet quite possible to mix in, then all rain for the balance of the day and then possibly a slow changeover to a wintry mix Thursday night.  I am not expect any roadway hazards in Acadiana with this system with the exception of the northern portions of the northern parishes of Acadiana ground temperatures may be too warm.  But grassy areas, trees and roof tops may whiten by Friday morning.  Most of us along and south of the I-10 corridor should stay almost all rain.  But like the last two December snow events (2008 and 2009) we may wake up Friday morning with some folks to the north making snowballs while others just getting to see it on video!  Stay tuned for the latest computer model runs and radar trends!

A sharp cold front will usher in winter-like temperatures back into Acadiana early Tuesday morning.  Highs Wednesday may not make it out of the 40s despite sunshine returning by the afternoon.  It will be dry in New Orleans too for Tuesday afternoon/evening for the Saints Parade but dress warmly as temperatures will stay in the 40s accompanied by a blustery northwest wind.  Temperatures will likely drop to near or below the freezing mark in Acadiana for Wednesday morning so it’s time again to tend to the tender vegetation.  Wednesday will be cool, partly sunny and dry, but clouds will be increasing late in the day.  It will get interesting Thursday as a quick-developing storm system will likely bring cold rains to the area.  This may bring winter weather conditions to the northern part of the state and as close as Central Louisiana at the onset of the precipitation and perhaps when things wind down Thursday night.  If the track of the developing surface low goes farther south than is currently forecast we could see a forecast tilted to some sort of wintry mix.  Right now though we’ll go with very chilly rains with at least 1-2″ of rain possible…if not maybe a little more.  In the wake of Thursday’s system cold and dry weather should follow that will likely carry us through much of the Mardi Gras holiday weekend.  Showers could return though for Fat Tuesday…so stay tuned to KATC for that, updates on the weather system tonight, and then for the one on Thursday…as always the forecast is subject to change!

Soaking rains will develop across Acadiana overnight with locally heavy downpours likely by Thursday morning.  The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for most of Acadiana for the possibility of “run-off” problems.  Per the NWS, rainfall totals will generally be inthe 2-4″ range, but isolated spots may see more than that.  Fortunately we have had a comparatively dry January after such a wet December so the ground will likely take most of the coming rainfall.  But as always, it’s not totally about how much, but what period of time the rain comes in.  Upper level dynamics combined with deep precipitable atmospheric moisture will be efficient in producing some heavy downpours.  In addition, there will likely be some embedded thunder, especially closer to the coastal parishes.  Areas that see repeated heavy downpours and embedded storms will be vulnerable to some street flooding…perhaps something more if rain totals exceed the current projections.  The enclosed graphic highlights the rain potential based on our late afternoon model run.  Any severe storms generated by this system should stay offshore but they could clip the extreme southeastern part of the state during the afternoon.  Offshore, very rough conditions with near gale winds, up to 8-14ft seas and minor coastal flooding will be possible as tides rise to 1-2ft above predicted levels.  The rains will taper in most areas to patchy drizzle/mist Thursday evening with lingering cloud cover likely through Friday morning.  Cool sun is still with us for the weekend with a milder Monday  followed by a moderate cold front late Monday that should keep us quite chilly through mid-next week.  The bottom line for the near-term-keep that umbrella handy and be ready for the Gulf of Mexico’s version of another “Nor’easter”.

Only changes to the on-going forecast are that the computer models are trending a little slower on the arrival of rain and storms Friday.  A vigorous frontal trough will approach by midday Friday with showers and storms likely anytime from the morning through the early afternoon hours with a shield of rain likely behind the front Friday afternoon into the early evening hours.  Rain total projections remain in the 1-2″ range for most of Acadiana Friday.  As Dave mentioned earlier, it appears that any severe weather threat will be confined to Texas but there could be some healthy storms running ahead of the cold front in Acadiana but instability remains questionable while upper level winds remain healthy but should be weakening as the system moves over Louisiana.  Although our highs on Friday will likely be in the mid-upper 60s temperatures will likely drop sharply by late Friday afternoon into Friday evening with lows Saturday morning dipping into the upper 30s with wind chills likely 10 degrees colder.  Winter-time temperatures are likely this weekend with highs not making it out of the 40s Saturday and barely reaching the lower 50s Sunday while lows Sunday and Monday mornings will likely be near the freezing mark.  Milder temperatures will return for next week but an active El Nino enhanced sub-tropical jet-stream will likely make for plenty of cloud cover and occasional rain chances starting late Monday and continuing for much of the week.