It promises to be a rather wet week for most of Acadiana as we continue to deal with the remnants of TD5 as it drifts westward toward Acadiana Tuesday and the northward Wednesday. A FLOOD WATCH has been posted for portions of Acadiana from Tuesday morning through Wednesday in the anticipation of the heavy rain threat.
As expected over the weekend this remnant system persisted across the interior portions of the Gulf States and then dropped back to the south with the circulation getting back out over open Gulf water late Sunday night.
Hurricane Hunters flew this system Monday afternoon just south of Mobile, Alabama. The reconnaissance plane found broad low pressure, like last week, but disorganized thunderstorm activity near the center, like last week. This time around upper level conditions are a little more favorable for development through Tuesday prior to the circulation making landfall over Eastern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon. If thunderstorms cluster near the center of circulation later tonight it will likely become an “official” tropical system
Based on upper level conditions and broad lower surface pressures this system is very close to being a depression and may become one at any time through tomorrow. If the system is upgraded, tropical storm warnings would probably be issued for portions of Louisiana through the Alabama coast.
The bottom line with this system is that it will be a major rain-maker with rainfalls of 3-5″ likely around this system and up to 8-10″ possible near where the center of circulation travels through mid-week. Rainfall totals will likely be directly correlated to the speed, or lack of, this exhibits over the next few days. Most computer models earlier today indicated the greatest threat of flooding rains will be in the eastern part of the state Tuesday and then the central part of the state Tuesday night into Wednesday.
More recent computer model runs this evening are much more robust with rainfall totals in Acadiana with 3-5″ possible through Thursday with isolated spots receiving possibly more than double depending ultimately where the center of circulation goes and how quickly it moves. Stay with KATC and katc.com for the latest information.
Another vigorous storm system will advance toward Acadiana Friday bring clouds and rain. Look for clouds to increase through the morning hours with rain developing from noon onward. This system has a very cold upper level core making conditions aloft quite unstable. Therefore embedded thunder may be possible tomorrow afternoon with even the possibility of some small hail or soft hail (also known as 
Updating Dave’s most excellent and honest blog entry…we are still on course for cold, sloppy rains Thursday into Thursday night. Once again, we are faced with marginal conditions that could generate a rain/snow mix Thursday night with a possible change-over to all snow in the northern most portions of Acadiana before the precipitation ends during the pre-dawn hours of Friday. For this reason the 
A sharp cold front will usher in winter-like temperatures back into Acadiana early Tuesday morning. Highs Wednesday may not make it out of the 40s despite sunshine returning by the afternoon. It will be dry in New Orleans too for Tuesday afternoon/evening for the Saints Parade but dress warmly as temperatures will stay in the 40s accompanied by a blustery northwest wind. Temperatures will likely drop to near or below the freezing mark in Acadiana for Wednesday morning so it’s time again to tend to the tender vegetation. Wednesday will be cool, partly sunny and dry, but clouds will be increasing late in the day. It will get interesting Thursday as a quick-developing storm system will likely bring cold rains to the area. This may bring winter weather conditions to the northern part of the state and as close as Central Louisiana at the onset of the precipitation and perhaps when things wind down Thursday night. If the track of the developing surface low goes farther south than is currently forecast we could see a forecast tilted to some sort of wintry mix. Right now though we’ll go with very chilly rains with at least 1-2″ of rain possible…if not maybe a little more. In the wake of Thursday’s system cold and dry weather should follow that will likely carry us through much of the Mardi Gras holiday weekend. Showers could return though for Fat Tuesday…so stay tuned to KATC for that, updates on the weather system tonight, and then for the one on Thursday…as always the forecast is subject to change!
Soaking rains will develop across Acadiana overnight with locally heavy downpours likely by Thursday morning. The 
Only changes to the on-going forecast are that the computer models are trending a little slower on the arrival of rain and storms Friday. A vigorous frontal trough will approach by midday Friday with showers and storms likely anytime from the morning through the early afternoon hours with a shield of rain likely behind the front Friday afternoon into the early evening hours. Rain total projections remain in the 1-2″ range for most of Acadiana Friday. As Dave mentioned earlier, it appears that any severe weather threat will be confined to Texas but there could be some healthy storms running ahead of the cold front in Acadiana but instability remains questionable while upper level winds remain healthy but should be weakening as the system moves over Louisiana. Although our highs on Friday will likely be in the mid-upper 60s temperatures will likely drop sharply by late Friday afternoon into Friday evening with lows Saturday morning dipping into the upper 30s with wind chills likely 10 degrees colder. Winter-time temperatures are likely this weekend with highs not making it out of the 40s Saturday and barely reaching the lower 50s Sunday while lows Sunday and Monday mornings will likely be near the freezing mark. Milder temperatures will return for next week but an active El Nino enhanced sub-tropical jet-stream will likely make for plenty of cloud cover and occasional rain chances starting late Monday and continuing for much of the week.
A strengthening low pressure system in the western Gulf of Mexico this evening will advance northeastward Saturday and head toward the Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon. Breezy conditions with period of rain will be likely through Saturday afternoon with activity likely to taper off Saturday night. Rough conditions offshore have been reported this afternoon with sustained winds as high as 35-40kts with gusts to near 60kts. Additional strong storms that develop this evening and tomorrow will insure that very rough conditions will continue through Saturday. Meanwhile inland most of the precipitation will stay as rain with general accumulations through Saturday evening in the 1-2″ range but isolated amounts to 3″ will be possible for St Mary Parish. Heavier rains and the slight risk of severe weather with this system may clip extreme Southeastern Louisiana and head toward the Florida Panhandle. Most of the rain generated in Acadiana through Saturday will be driven by the upper level low that is guiding this system. The upper low won’t clear the area until Sunday morning. So after the rains end there will likely be lingering drizzle/mist and perhaps some fog into Saturday night. Lingering cloud cover Sunday morning should yield to partial clearing and some sun Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will stay in the upper 40s to lower 50s through Saturday evening dropping into the low-mid 40s for Sunday morning. Milder conditions are possible for Sunday afternoon with highs in the upper 50s to near 60. Spring-like conditions with mostly sunny skies are anticipated for Monday and Tuesday of next week with highs pushing into the mid-upper 60s. The next weather-maker will arrive for next Wednesday likely producing a round of thunderstorms. Even warmer temperatures should follow late next week into the weekend with highs pushing into the low-mid 70s! Another round of even healthier (possibly severe) storms may follow for next Sunday. As we start to see the warmer temperatures ahead of frontal troughs over the next few weeks the risk of severe weather will increase with each system. Normally our spring severe weather season begins in the latter part of February, but given this El Nino winter pattern it is not unusual to have more frequent severe weather events starting as early as late January. At least for this weekend it will just be a rain event. Have a great weekend and Geaux Saints! Rob
After nine straight mornings with sub-freezing temperatures in Acadiana a moderating temperature trend is expected while a storm system begins to develop in the Gulf tomorrow and Friday. High and mid-level clouds should keep our temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s tonight with highs Thursday approaching the lower 60s under mostly cloudy skies. An upper level disturbance in Texas is helping to induce the cloudiness this evening and will continue to do so Thursday. Underneath these mid-level clouds there will be the possibility of a few sprinkles Thursday afternoon and evening but our best rain chances will likely hold-off until Friday night and Saturday as a stronger disturbace in the SW US helps to deepen surface low pressure in the Gulf. The track of this storm system will put the low south of the Louisiana coast by Saturday morning trekking toward the northeastern Gulf Sunday. This path should keep the heavier showers and storms well offshore or to the east of us with mostly light to moderate rain in-store for Acadiana. Expect lots is clouds and breezy easterly winds on Friday with increasing rain chances developing late in the day or into the evening. Periods of rain are a good bet for Saturday. Rain totals should be no higher than 1-2″ other than in St Mary Parish where isolated higher amounts will be possible. Portions of Southeastern Louisiana could see a fair bit more depending on the track of the storm and its associated precipitation field. So expect on and off rain with lots of clouds and maybe some fog Saturday (while your watching the Saints game!) with clearing conditions likely for Sunday. It should be partly sunny and milder early next week with highs pushing into the mid-60s. The next storm system will likely present a good chance of healthier thunderstorms Wednesday with the following weather system bringing the threat of stormy weather back to the area for following weekend.
Rain and embedded rumbles of thunder will be likely for our Wednesday as low pressure develops in the Gulf of Mexico this Tuesday evening. The surface low this time around won’t be a deep one but this system has plenty of upper support which will likely generate rain and elevated embedded thunderstorms, especially for our Wednesday afternoon. Since this system is more elevated in nature we are not expecting any organized severe weather. Estimating rainfall totals has become quite problematic with almost all of the models coming in with rain totals of an inch or less today. But as we have been saying all along in this El Nino enhanced winter…”go with a wetter forecast”. With that being said, rain accumulations should be generally between .10-.25″ overnight with 1-2″ the best forecast at this point for Wednesday. The rains should stay below flooding thresholds, but if the embedded storms can get cranking and train over a particular area then isolated amounts up to 3″ could be possible. The rain and storms should end sometime tomorrow evening with lingering clouds and fog possible for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Thursday should bring mostly cloudy skies with a few intervals of sun and mild temperatures, but a fairly strong cold front should push across the area for New Year’s Eve possibly engendering a few light showers. Friday and Saturday will be blustery with highs ranging in the upper 40s to lower 50s while lows drop into the low-mid 30s. Next week continues to look rather interesting with the coldest air of the season edging into our area. Combine that with an hyper-active sub-tropical jet stream and then wintry weather could become an issue. Right now the models have been tilting toward a drier but cold solution for early-mid next week…but we’ll see what Mr. El Nino and friends may have in store. The bottom line though is that we may indeed see lows dropping into the mid-upper 20s by next Wednesday morning with highs struggling to make the 40s…stay tuned!